2024 Paris Olympics

For an interest today -

Pidcock 40/1
Aranburu 80/1

USA men's basketball -35.5 I'm all over it @1.9

Tennis Singles

Taking the double today

Musetti + Zheng @ 31/20

Ladies road race will be running on one TV in The Vann household so may as well have a stab.

Win
Borghini @ 17/2

and the French did really well in the men's so

E/W 1-3
Labous @ 80/1

Doing OK on the tennis but have got this match-up wrong every single time over the past two years. So beers it is

Djokovic v Alcaraz
Djokovic under 10.5 games @ 19/20


taking full bet on a double
Alcaraz win into Lions -4.5 (Currie Cup) @ 15/10

Once again the Alcaraz/Djokovic combo stuff up my bets. Will leave them alone in future.

Mens 100m

Think the odds on our guy are too long. Small on the Gold but a decent strike on the 1-3. at 7/2

E/W
Simbine @ 25/1

Keep an eye when betting opens for the 4x100m mens relay. Team SA are dark horses for a medal, based on the form of Simbine and Richardson runs in the 100m semis. Last I saw they were around 80/1 for gold, so hoping for 4/1 or 5/1 to medal.

southpaw wrote: Showcase athletics events are the sprint races as usual. In the men’s 100m will throw some change at ew Fred Kerley @ 22/1.

Beaten into 3rd at US trials but that was his best race for a while and could be peaking just in time. Has just the 100m to focus on unlike the other contenders all mostly also doing 200m. Has a winning record over Lyles and proven on the big stage.

Nice call South. Very stiff Vann on Simbine... Such an unlucky runner not to get a medal at a major event for SA always runs 4th or 5th.

southpaw wrote: Showcase athletics events are the sprint races as usual. In the men’s 100m will throw some change at ew Fred Kerley @ 22/1.

Beaten into 3rd at US trials but that was his best race for a while and could be peaking just in time. Has just the 100m to focus on unlike the other contenders all mostly also doing 200m. Has a winning record over Lyles and proven on the big stage.

Geez Southpaw!

still can't believe the 100 mens last night. What a final!

I see bookies don't know who the main challenger is to Kipyegon in the W5000 tonight. She's 1/5 on, but the prices on 3 main other contenders all over the shop. I'm happy to take the view that PP have got the wrong price -

Beatrice Chebet 16/1 win but 8/10 to medal.

She's 7/1 with most firms, why they are opposing her so much i have no idea. She was in the weaker heat but had to use up little energy, and as a 10000 specialist she's not going to be feeling tired come final lap.

The price is wrong, and i'll have a nibble on both win but medal main bet.

Taking Hassan in the 5,000m. I think a 14 year old from Ethiopia manages to get from Africa to Netherlands on her own and make a life for herself is tough. Also now trains in the USA so will get the top of the range private enterprise medical assistance.

Win
Hassan @ 9/2

Am on Tebogo for men’s 200 @ 15/2. I think he’s a huge danger to Lyles, who at 1/5 is a terrible price based on how close the 100 was.

southpaw wrote: still can't believe the 100 mens last night. What a final!

I see bookies don't know who the main challenger is to Kipyegon in the W5000 tonight. She's 1/5 on, but the prices on 3 main other contenders all over the shop. I'm happy to take the view that PP have got the wrong price -

Beatrice Chebet 16/1 win but 8/10 to medal.

She's 7/1 with most firms, why they are opposing her so much i have no idea. She was in the weaker heat but had to use up little energy, and as a 10000 specialist she's not going to be feeling tired come final lap.

The price is wrong, and i'll have a nibble on both win but medal main bet.

Too damn good South. How you find these massive prices is amazing. Thanks for sharing!

thanks Naidoo. I take a view that in track athletics it's a terrible idea to back short priced favourites. It takes so little for a single athlete to not be on their game and as such there is value when you do a bit of studying. I'm no athletics betting expert but it's something about the olympics that works in the favour of looking for upsets/big prices.

For the mens 200 i have a similar approach - Lyles is hot fav, he has measure of his fellow US runners, but Tebogo will have him thinking at night. Can't get a decent medal price on Tebogo but think he makes Lyles go deep into reserves.

drift in the odds here on Tebogo out to 12s. Don't see any headlines.

Can get to medal now at 1.73

Paddy Power been offering some big prices and the 12/1 is very attractive…

Men’s 400 -

Norman medal @ 15/8
Smaller bet win @ 25/1

Definitely holding back in semi, if runs to potential can get into bronze here, but with focus on top 2 bit like 1500m, could be the surprise package.

southpaw wrote: Men’s 400 -

Norman medal @ 15/8
Smaller bet win @ 25/1

Definitely holding back in semi, if runs to potential can get into bronze here, but with focus on top 2 bit like 1500m, could be the surprise package.

Thanks South, I was about to post the exact same bets. The odds are wrong here, and the books have made too much into his heat and semi runs. He started at 45/10 to win gold ahead of the heats and now based on James fast times, his drifted off to 25/1 and 15/8 to medal. That medal price is way too big for a guy who should have more in the tank in the final, while James seems to have peaked in the semis.

Some bets on guys who have won at this level before and are overpriced in the betting:

Mens Discuss (Wednesday)
Kristjan Ceh Gold medal @ 3.75/1

Mens 200m (Thursday)
Erriyon Knighton Gold @ 19/1 & Top 3 @ evens
Semis are tonight and probably could get a better price after that, but I like the odds now. Knighton is only 20, and will be a 200m star for the USA in years to come. He has improved over the past two years and unlike the three guys ahead of him in the betting (Lyles, Kung Fu Kenny and Tebogo), who ran in the 100m, he is racing fresh, just here for the 200m and I think he can finish on the podium.

Mens Javelin (Thursday)
Jakub Vadlejch Gold medal @ 5/1 & Top 3 @ 8/10

Mens Triple Jump (Friday)
Hugues Zango Top 3 @ 3/1

Mens 800m (Saturday)
Marco Arop Gold medal @ 9/1 & Top 3 @ 0.85/1
Already mentioned Marco Arop, and he ran well in his heat this morning. In his post race interview he mentioned his trying for the record and that is needed to win Gold. Unlike the two betting favs, Arop prefers these races where there are heats, semis and finals. The betting favs, prefer once off racing such as IAAF Diamond league meets. Marco Arop betting odds are wrong and I have already placed these two bets last week (mentioned earlier in the forum), so just adding them here again.

Womens Golf

Ashleigh gets a start she tends to hang in there with the best

Win and Top 10

Buhai @ 16/1

wow Tebogo looked good .

in to 7/2 now for Gold

1.13 to medal!

Well that’s the first real dissapointment for Olympics for me, Michael Norman more like Michael Poorman, terrible run and his reputation remains as one you can’t trust for a true run.

Hopefully Tebogo can get us back on track tomorrow. Feeling bullish about him now.

The Vann wrote: Womens Golf

Ashleigh gets a start she tends to hang in there with the best

Win and Top 10

Buhai @ 16/1

And my brilliant form across all olympic sports continues when she starts round 2 with a double

Naidoo wrote: Some bets on guys who have won at this level before and are overpriced in the betting:


Mens 800m (Saturday)
Marco Arop Gold medal @ 9/1 & Top 3 @ 0.85/1
Already mentioned Marco Arop, and he ran well in his heat this morning. In his post race interview he mentioned his trying for the record and that is needed to win Gold. Unlike the two betting favs, Arop prefers these races where there are heats, semis and finals. The betting favs, prefer once off racing such as IAAF Diamond league meets. Marco Arop betting odds are wrong and I have already placed these two bets last week (mentioned earlier in the forum), so just adding them here again.

Nice breakdown on Arop! Following now on top 3 with some 9/4 available

markhyland13 wrote:

Naidoo wrote: Some bets on guys who have won at this level before and are overpriced in the betting:


Mens 800m (Saturday)
Marco Arop Gold medal @ 9/1 & Top 3 @ 0.85/1
Already mentioned Marco Arop, and he ran well in his heat this morning. In his post race interview he mentioned his trying for the record and that is needed to win Gold. Unlike the two betting favs, Arop prefers these races where there are heats, semis and finals. The betting favs, prefer once off racing such as IAAF Diamond league meets. Marco Arop betting odds are wrong and I have already placed these two bets last week (mentioned earlier in the forum), so just adding them here again.

Nice breakdown on Arop! Following now on top 3 with some 9/4 available

My bets are moving odds into the opposite direction! Watch him drift to around 3/1 after the semis now. I still think his odds are wrong though.

Naidoo wrote: One of the greatest events is around the corner and for many we become couch potato betting experts on various sporting codes.

Plenty of value to be found on teams and athletes this Olympics. Will study the events and post my fancies throughout the next two weeks.

Early thoughts on some outright betting, fading Team USA Basketball at 4/1 is good value. That team is filled with star studded individuals but are not a team.

France Men odds to win the Volleyball are way too long. For me they should be the favorites, so 7/1 is nice value. They recently won the Nations League and will have the home support. Even 15/10 for them to medal is a good price for any single bets or to throw in a multiple.

We don't always have time to check/ follow punts here. I recall reading this and planning a punt, but ran out of time.
I know the Gold medal match remains but this is already a winner and kudos to you, Naidoo

Some great calls all around lads

southpaw wrote:
Hopefully Tebogo can get us back on track tomorrow. Feeling bullish about him now.

Good lord he made that look easy! only 21 too

Yes Tebbooogooooo

Smashed that 12-1

Well done south and naidooo

Chiefie wrote: Yes Tebbooogooooo

Smashed that 12-1

Well done south and naidooo

I had nothing to do with this beauty of a bet. Well done to South and Markhyland, both were confident and called it early.

Special mention to South as well, on a brilliant run this Olympics and multiple big priced winners... Lol who needs horse racing, when you smashing the big winners in the Olympics!

Thanks guys it’s been a really great thread this and we got a few more days to go. I’ve really enjoyed the thoughts and some top picks and glad to contribute, it’s a pleasurable change of pace from rugby and horse racing and give me an odds on favourite to plot against and I love nothing better.

So next one I am eyeing a pick for men’s marathon, I will post tomorrow. This marathon route is a toughie and not your typical major type race course so I think there’s an upset potential here as well.

Mens Marathon Saturday

The big one is early tomorrow morning and as South mentioned, this is a tough route with plenty of hills and I think the favs at evens and 2/1 get rolled.

Many competitors are facing this tougher route for the first time and dodged similar hills at the Boston marathon in favor of the London marathon as prep runs.

However, Sisay Lemma chose to run at Boston and won that race. He mentioned he did that marathon as prep for the Olympics and the tougher run. Boston had several hills and is similar to the Olympics route for tomorrow's race. I think Lemma was smart to have a prep run and win over a similar type of route and that should make him a big runner tomorrow. Shop around and you can find some good odds on him.

Sisay Lemma to win gold @ 8/1 & Top 3 @ 2/1

Naidoo wrote: Mens Marathon Saturday

The big one is early tomorrow morning and as South mentioned, this is a tough route with plenty of hills and I think the favs at evens and 2/1 get rolled.

Many competitors are facing this tougher route for the first time and dodged similar hills at the Boston marathon in favor of the London marathon as prep runs.

However, Sisay Lemma chose to run at Boston and won that race. He mentioned he did that marathon as prep for the Olympics and the tougher run. Boston had several hills and is similar to the Olympics route for tomorrow's race. I think Lemma was smart to have a prep run and win over a similar type of route and that should make him a big runner tomorrow. Shop around and you can find some good odds on him.

Sisay Lemma to win gold @ 8/1 & Top 3 @ 2/1

Haha crap after posting and researching more, I realized he was replaced in the team

On to the studying once again. Have no idea why the books did not change the odds and get his replacement Tola on the market, his odds could be value as well.

Naidoo wrote:

markhyland13 wrote:

Naidoo wrote: Some bets on guys who have won at this level before and are overpriced in the betting:


Mens 800m (Saturday)
Marco Arop Gold medal @ 9/1 & Top 3 @ 0.85/1
Already mentioned Marco Arop, and he ran well in his heat this morning. In his post race interview he mentioned his trying for the record and that is needed to win Gold. Unlike the two betting favs, Arop prefers these races where there are heats, semis and finals. The betting favs, prefer once off racing such as IAAF Diamond league meets. Marco Arop betting odds are wrong and I have already placed these two bets last week (mentioned earlier in the forum), so just adding them here again.

Nice breakdown on Arop! Following now on top 3 with some 9/4 available

My bets are moving odds into the opposite direction! Watch him drift to around 3/1 after the semis now. I still think his odds are wrong though.

Marco Arop breezed through his semi this morning and won with plenty of gas in the tank. I will be shocked if his still at 11s for Gold and 9/4 to medal when the betting comes out later this afternoon.

Women’s 400m later -

Very confident on Paulinho to get the gold and bookies have her no longer than 1.28.

See value in the Polish Kaczmarek to get a podium finish at 6/4. She ran sub 49 this summer before the tournament (twice). Only her and Pryce have done that this year , but Pryce didn’t make the final which was a shock! Adeleke looked tired and off the pace in her heat which would be one of her main threats. As an Irish man I’ll be rooting her on however

Found a special of Paulinho Gold and Kaczmarek to get a medal @ odds of 3.00 so will nab that.

Naidoo wrote:

Naidoo wrote: Mens Marathon Saturday

The big one is early tomorrow morning and as South mentioned, this is a tough route with plenty of hills and I think the favs at evens and 2/1 get rolled.

Many competitors are facing this tougher route for the first time and dodged similar hills at the Boston marathon in favor of the London marathon as prep runs.

However, Sisay Lemma chose to run at Boston and won that race. He mentioned he did that marathon as prep for the Olympics and the tougher run. Boston had several hills and is similar to the Olympics route for tomorrow's race. I think Lemma was smart to have a prep run and win over a similar type of route and that should make him a big runner tomorrow. Shop around and you can find some good odds on him.

Sisay Lemma to win gold @ 8/1 & Top 3 @ 2/1

Haha crap after posting and researching more, I realized he was replaced in the team

On to the studying once again. Have no idea why the books did not change the odds and get his replacement Tola on the market, his odds could be value as well.

So Naidoo, this has been why i can't post my bet yet. I looked at Lemma, then found out Wednesday he wasn't running, Tola was. Now when i was researching the comments in Ethiopian running circles was that some were really surprised Tola didn't make the team. He is course suited, a hot, humid hilly course is to his liking. While Boston as the hilliest major would have made Lemma a big runner, it was confirmed 12th July he was out, so markets simply not updated.

I've been trying all morning to get Tola added by PP and Boyles but oh my god you realise customer service is not a bookies strength, just getting nowhere. Hoping PP can sort out and well cats out the bag, Tola for the win and medal is where i'm going.

Thanks South, and glad to see we both like Tola. Very frustrating that we cant get on though, hopefully someone prices up by tonight. He is a massive runner in this race....

in the meantime i've taken a small interest in 1 other runner -

Abdi Nageeye (best price 80/1, and seen some 6/1 to medal).

Runs for Netherlands having left Africa as child. Has some strong showings of late and a 3rd in NY marathon catches eye, while also Silver at Tokyo and has run 2 x top 10's at Boston much earlier in career, so appears hill suited.

And we still wait for Tola price, PP said will have updated today, will believe it when i see it.

Hi guys, thanks for the great thoughts.

Hollywood this side have Tola up at 33/10 for Marathon.

kt6747 wrote: Hi guys, thanks for the great thoughts.

Hollywood this side have Tola up at 33/10 for Marathon.

Thanks KT, damn I didn't expect such a short price. No value in a medal odds as well.

Women's Marathon Sunday

The last events of the Olympics and I am playing to beat Hassan here. She is running the 10 000m tonight and already won bronze in the 5000m. Taking part in the marathon now, surely she has to be feeling it in her legs. If not now once those hills take effect on Sunday morning, she will be vulnerable.

Based on my failed Mens marathon post, you have to give reigning Boston marathon winner Hellen Obiri a massive chance to win gold and medal. Problem is shes 2/1 joint fav with Hassan and 5/10 to medal, so no value.

Instead I prefer, Peres Jepchirchir to pull of the upset. She won the London marathon in her prep for the Olympics and has experience of this tough race and hills, having competed and won in Boston in 2022 and NY in 2021.

Peres Jepchirchir to win Gold @ 8/1 and Medal @ 16/10

Wet track again tonight in Paris ...

Mens Basketball Gold Medal Match - Saturday

Home support has been a massive advantage for France at this Olympics, especially in team events. The Volleyball men are in the final, the Soccer team just came back from 1-3 down against Spain in the final to draw 3-3.

France vs USA in Basketball final tomorrow night, and after that massive scare for the US against Serbia last night they should be more focused. They should win the Gold, but that handicap line is way too big for a final, against a solid home side with massive support.

France +17.5 @ 9/10

markhyland13 wrote: Women’s 400m later -

Very confident on Paulinho to get the gold and bookies have her no longer than 1.28.

See value in the Polish Kaczmarek to get a podium finish at 6/4. She ran sub 49 this summer before the tournament (twice). Only her and Pryce have done that this year , but Pryce didn’t make the final which was a shock! Adeleke looked tired and off the pace in her heat which would be one of her main threats. As an Irish man I’ll be rooting her on however

Found a special of Paulinho Gold and Kaczmarek to get a medal @ odds of 3.00 so will nab that.

markhyland13 wrote:

markhyland13 wrote: Women’s 400m later -

Very confident on Paulinho to get the gold and bookies have her no longer than 1.28.

See value in the Polish Kaczmarek to get a podium finish at 6/4. She ran sub 49 this summer before the tournament (twice). Only her and Pryce have done that this year , but Pryce didn’t make the final which was a shock! Adeleke looked tired and off the pace in her heat which would be one of her main threats. As an Irish man I’ll be rooting her on however

Found a special of Paulinho Gold and Kaczmarek to get a medal @ odds of 3.00 so will nab that.

Nice find

Nice one mark on the 400!!

So disappointed by odds on Tola in marathon. I’ve taken some 9/2 win but not the price I’d hoped for. Let’s see how he goes.

southpaw wrote: Nice one mark on the 400!!

So disappointed by odds on Tola in marathon. I’ve taken some 9/2 win but not the price I’d hoped for. Let’s see how he goes.

Tola easy win. Great punting!