Rugby Championship Week 2, Currie Cup Week 7 + NPC Week 2, 12-18 August

Pablo wrote: Northland -6.5 ha @1.91 2u

Two scores handicap for me so value in the home, I'd put this around -14.5.

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote: Northland -6.5 ha @1.91 2u

Two scores handicap for me so value in the home, I'd put this around -14.5.

Looks like the bookies have corrected themselves here and I missed it (Damn you day job ), I had put the number at 11 so 6 would have been a must take. Manawatu very messy.

At the minute I like the counties +11. However there is an injury question around Riley Hohepa. I would think that they will improve after a tough test against Taranaki

I almost feel obliged to take any + on Taranaki and I think 7 is enough for me. They are very strong all over the pitch.

Sharkster wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Counties have rotated with Hohepa out. I think the cap might move out some more so no need to rush into t abet on counties if I bet on them at all. I have taken a bet on the over 56 points, I don't track NPC like other leagues but I think counties are usually a side that will beat their team total as an underdog.

I took BOP -9.5 @1.813 2u earlier in asian, my proyection was 34-21 so value there. No Hohepa big blow (Nanai-Seturo as well), BOP without Trask at 10 but at least Cashmore is on the bench.

BOP o33.5 looks nice as well.

Pablo wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Counties have rotated with Hohepa out. I think the cap might move out some more so no need to rush into t abet on counties if I bet on them at all. I have taken a bet on the over 56 points, I don't track NPC like other leagues but I think counties are usually a side that will beat their team total as an underdog.

I took BOP -9.5 @1.813 2u earlier in asian, my proyection was 34-21 so value there. No Hohepa big blow (Nanai-Seturo as well), BOP without Trask at 10 but at least Cashmore is on the bench.

BOP o33.5 looks nice as well.

Both -9.5 and o56.5 landed

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Counties have rotated with Hohepa out. I think the cap might move out some more so no need to rush into t abet on counties if I bet on them at all. I have taken a bet on the over 56 points, I don't track NPC like other leagues but I think counties are usually a side that will beat their team total as an underdog.

I took BOP -9.5 @1.813 2u earlier in asian, my proyection was 34-21 so value there. No Hohepa big blow (Nanai-Seturo as well), BOP without Trask at 10 but at least Cashmore is on the bench.

BOP o33.5 looks nice as well.

Both -9.5 and o56.5 landed

Yeah, when certain teams are involved in games you just know there can be points. Counties seem of have a trend of going way behind and then getting points. Like scoring 30 and still losing the cap is shocking.

The caps for the two other games on Sunday are out

BOP -2 v North Harbour
Counties +14 v Waikato

I know Counties have 3 games in a week but it is early season so I don't think there will be a huge fatigue factor , I lean with them at the moment and weather depending a possible look at overs again. Presuming the points say under 60.

Pablo wrote: Wellington -7.5 @1.84 2u

Strong team with Love at 15, and stronger bench than Naki.

If weather allows that 49.5 is low in my opinion (leaning on Wellington o29.5 rather than the total)

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote: Wellington -7.5 @1.84 2u

Strong team with Love at 15, and stronger bench than Naki.

If weather allows that 49.5 is low in my opinion (leaning on Wellington o29.5 rather than the total)

-6 @ 10/11 is still available at boylesports if you have access to them

Brent Graham wrote: I will be posting Currie Cup Plays in this blog

As Shaft says I don't think the over 59.5 will last

Over 59.5 at 9/10 in Pumas v Bulls

southpaw wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: I will be posting Currie Cup Plays in this blog

As Shaft says I don't think the over 59.5 will last

Over 59.5 at 9/10 in Pumas v Bulls

Hoping to get same line when a few more bookies price up as can’t get on at Pokerbet. Seems a try too low.

Pablo wrote: Follow you guys on the o59.5 in Nelspruit with confidence. Line in Joburg at 59.5 in pinnacle as well, I´m licking my lips when limits rise to fire overs there, even a little worse line looks valuable for me.

In NPC I had Northland -6.5 and Wellington -7.5 and I add o54.5 in hawkes bay-southland @1.89 for 2u as well (weather looks ok for kickoff and may rain a little bit at the end of the match). With dry conditions most of the match this line seems 4-5 points below I expected it. Hawkes Bay showed last week what they´re capable of when they can run the field, they can even reach this line alone if they have their day.

Also added Counties +13.5 and +12.5 for 1u each. They field a nice compo, Hohepa back on the bench. No Waikato lineup yet but they looked rusty last week against BOP so value for me on the home side. Also waiting for the weather to settle because radar shows there will rain heavily in Pukekohe during the whole match and line at 55.5 looks high in that conditions.

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote: Follow you guys on the o59.5 in Nelspruit with confidence. Line in Joburg at 59.5 in pinnacle as well, I´m licking my lips when limits rise to fire overs there, even a little worse line looks valuable for me.

In NPC I had Northland -6.5 and Wellington -7.5 and I add o54.5 in hawkes bay-southland @1.89 for 2u as well (weather looks ok for kickoff and may rain a little bit at the end of the match). With dry conditions most of the match this line seems 4-5 points below I expected it. Hawkes Bay showed last week what they´re capable of when they can run the field, they can even reach this line alone if they have their day.

Also added Counties +13.5 and +12.5 for 1u each. They field a nice compo, Hohepa back on the bench. No Waikato lineup yet but they looked rusty last week against BOP so value for me on the home side. Also waiting for the weather to settle because radar shows there will rain heavily in Pukekohe during the whole match and line at 55.5 looks high in that conditions.

Looks like you have some nice value on Northland and Wellington.

What Radar do you use for rainfall? I cant find anything for NZ, I don't really trust the usual weather forecast as they are too general.

Pablo wrote:

Sharkster wrote:

Pablo wrote: Follow you guys on the o59.5 in Nelspruit with confidence. Line in Joburg at 59.5 in pinnacle as well, I´m licking my lips when limits rise to fire overs there, even a little worse line looks valuable for me.

In NPC I had Northland -6.5 and Wellington -7.5 and I add o54.5 in hawkes bay-southland @1.89 for 2u as well (weather looks ok for kickoff and may rain a little bit at the end of the match). With dry conditions most of the match this line seems 4-5 points below I expected it. Hawkes Bay showed last week what they´re capable of when they can run the field, they can even reach this line alone if they have their day.

Also added Counties +13.5 and +12.5 for 1u each. They field a nice compo, Hohepa back on the bench. No Waikato lineup yet but they looked rusty last week against BOP so value for me on the home side. Also waiting for the weather to settle because radar shows there will rain heavily in Pukekohe during the whole match and line at 55.5 looks high in that conditions.

Looks like you have some nice value on Northland and Wellington.

What Radar do you use for rainfall? I cant find anything for NZ, I don't really trust the usual weather forecast as they are too general.

I use three forecast websites and mix the info: ventusky, meteociel and yr.no.

All of them very accurate, specially meteociel.

Brent Graham wrote: Wow the forecast I saw for Auckland was and still is very wrong - doesn't show a drop of rain

The New Zealand line still 31.5 and I considered closing out for a small loss but will let it ride

I agree Mark the Argentina unders appeals now but given I am on the handicap I am not going to get more involved