All Football Tips w/c 12th August

Back to the bread and butter of betting, with the 2024/2025 Football Season.

EFL Championship
Luton vs Burnley Monday Night

Its all change at Burnley with a new playing style and manager. Luton have kept most of their squad intact after relegation (still have a defensive crisis, so may start the season slow) and manager Rob Edwards has continued his aggressive style of play. Like in the Championship two years back, and in the Premier League last season, Luton have kept playing through their wingbacks and width play. They aggressively try to play from wide and send crosses into the box.

That means their corners lines are always a runner. At Kenilworth Road, Luton corners were a cash cow last season and based on my research into this preseason, that wont change. Luton corner lines averaged 5.5 in the PL at home last season and tonights line is the same. The bookies are sleeping early on in the season, and this line is a corner or two short.

Luton over 5.5 corners @ 8/10
Luton -1 corner handicap @ 19/20

Luton v Burnley

Been on such a bad run on the Olympics scared to bugger up Vin's corner punt so smalls on the over 5.5 and a bet on

Total shots over 27.5 @ 19/20

Naidoo wrote: Back to the bread and butter of betting, with the 2024/2025 Football Season.

EFL Championship
Luton vs Burnley Monday Night

Its all change at Burnley with a new playing style and manager. Luton have kept most of their squad intact after relegation (still have a defensive crisis, so may start the season slow) and manager Rob Edwards has continued his aggressive style of play. Like in the Championship two years back, and in the Premier League last season, Luton have kept playing through their wingbacks and width play. They aggressively try to play from wide and send crosses into the box.

That means their corners lines are always a runner. At Kenilworth Road, Luton corners were a cash cow last season and based on my research into this preseason, that wont change. Luton corner lines averaged 5.5 in the PL at home last season and tonights line is the same. The bookies are sleeping early on in the season, and this line is a corner or two short.

Luton over 5.5 corners @ 8/10
Luton -1 corner handicap @ 19/20

Crossbars!!! Sorry guys who followed. Was looking so good after 30mins.

Nice preview of the United Fulham game Chris.

Just some observations I found while researching stats ahead of the new EPL Season

I always thought the signs of a great manager from a good one, is those that improve players instead of signing old players. Ten Hag has made this United team his Ajax 2.0 (5 former Ajax players), and will be interesting to see how they get on.

Just to touch on that and for the season ahead on United betting. I mentioned last season that Ten Hag side was very vulnerable through the middle of the park. I don't see that changing in the new season, as they were still very open in preseason and the community shield game.

Whenever united are playing, their opponents team corners and shots, are always runners. Irrespective of home or away, United will be open for counters.

Vann, Quill and any other United fans on the forum, would love your guys thoughts on the season and whether you have seen an improvement in Ten Hag and this United side.

Aston Villa and opponent offsides under Emery, will continue playing their high line so, opponents offsides offer plenty of value, provided the line is low.

The same goes for Spurs and opponent offsides under Ange, he has shown his not afraid of playing a high line even when they are continuously being cut open, so books might be slow to react to that.

Chelsea under Maresca is a work in progress. He wants to play out from the back with an inverted full back and a high line. In preseason defensively Chelsea have struggled and it will take time for players to get used to his tactics. Chelsea opponents offsides, goals and shots are betting options.

Like Chelsea, West Ham are now pressing higher, under Lopetegui and the early stages of the season is a good time to catch them out. Based off preseason, the players are getting caught out when they don't press as a unit and once opponents beat that press, its trouble.

Brighton under Hurzeler will be a big threats from set pieces. I think their CBs offer value on goal scoring markets especially from corners and free kicks.

Arsenal, Liverpool and Man City its more of a wait and see what happens. Arsenal with 4 cbs in a back 4 will be interesting to watch, and if Arteta gets this right, they can finally end their long wait for another EPL trophy.

Liverpool under Slot is a little different than when Klopp was around. Liverpool will be playing more from the back, a slower more possession based approach and trying to beat the press and attack quickly once the press has been broken. We have seen how good this looks against Arsenal, United and Sevilla in preseason. The issue is it wont work all the time and there will be times where they give away possession deep inside their own half.

I don't have anything to add on the newly promoted teams, and with the other teams not covered, we will be able to get a better understanding of tactics and betting options after the first month of the season.

For the offsides markets, Sunbet has those odds. Player shots, team shots I found these at Sunbet and Sportingbet. Sportingbet also have early payout when teams go 2 goals up, so thats a nice option to have.

Lovely detailed team previews Naidoo on what to keep an eye out for . Buzzing it’s finally back this weekend

Great write up and analysis Naidoo.

As a United fan for the last 46 years, I have to say this is one of the poorer sides I have seen. My first thing is they missing the grit of the old winning sides under Fergie. There is no Keane or Bruce to get them into shape if they step out of line. If you dont have that your manager has to be prepared to, and Ten Haag has shown he will roll over. Have listened to a few interviews and the commentators on Saturday, sounds like the formation and style of play at United is now been set by the Director's of Football, which to me is just a joke. And the reason none of Tuchel etc never joined as they wouldn't stand for it.

Then onto the team, any team that wins like Liverpool, City and Arsenal, always have a strong spin, United's spine is like that of someone who has fractured it. We can't seem to keep Central Defenders on the field long enough, and the ones we do, don't seem to want to play. As Naidoo said, the Midfield is also horrendous, all of the top 3 teams have one thing in common, a strong box to box defensive midfielder. I still believe if United had spent the 200Million from last season on Declan Rice, we would stand a chance this year. Till we get this right and get ride of the Ola specialists like Casimero, we will not be competitive.

What is unfortunately needed is a complete change of personal, and time to move on from Fernadez, and Rashford, and get some decent quality as neither seem to want to be there.

Anyway, as you can guess I am a disappointed fan, but will unfortunately suffer for another season.

Thanks Mark and KT. Loved that write up and insights KT. Very interesting to read and I think more of the same is expected this season under Ten Hag. As for that DOFs setting the playing style, I have no clue whats happening at that club. I read under Jim Ratcliffe the DOF, etc will decide on transfers, but based on the signings of De Ligt and Mazraoui, Ten Hag still has a big say in transfers.... What happens when he gets sacked, for his former Ajax guys? If the new manager doesn't rate them? Feel like Utd are playing a dangerous game... I am not even a Utd fan, so maybe I shouldn't comment.

Maybe I should of worded my initial write up differently, it doesn't have to just be UTD fans giving feedback. Any EPL fan can contribute, it would be nice to hear from club fans who follow their teams and see if we can find any betting edge at the books.

Thanks Chris for all the bets for the weekend and good luck.

English Football Weekend Bets

Early in the season so very small stakes to begin with. Small sample size based of preseason but some lines I found at Sunbet that seem to hold some value. Will only start placing proper size bets after a month of the season has gone, with a bigger sample size.

Man United 10+ fouls @ 21/20
Liverpool 10+ fouls @ 8/10
Man City 2+ offsides @ 11/10
West Brom DC @ 8/10

The search for the retirement goals acca goes on for another season and I will share my speculative ridiculous losing acca tomorrow. Goodluck to everyone betting this weekend.

Saw Naidoo's post, so thought I'd give my view on Spurs. I expect Spurs to start this season in a very similar way to the previous one. Plenty of goals, shots and defensive mistakes. At the beginning of last season, I mentioned how I liked Spurs shots, and they beat the line probably about 80% of the time in the first 10 games. However, any injury or signs of fatigue changes this significantly. I think Spurs will play the same way all season, regardless of the situation, so plenty of " pro attacking " bets to start off, but worth opposing them when the stats start to regress. The first game against Leicester has all the makings of a load of loads of attacking play, so might be worth taking some higher lines on total shots, early goals, btts in first half etc. will post my bets Monday. Cheers

Betballers.com shows the average odds for a Man Utd win at 1.52-1.60. I think the bookmaker isn't too confident in their victory, so there might be a surprise today.

ManU v Fulham

Thought we looked rubbish in the States and conceded way too much. No idea what the fascination with Casimero is. Take the Scot any day of the week. Probably looking at the same as last year

Multi scores

Fulham 2-1/3-1/4-1 @ 8/1

The Vann wrote: ManU v Fulham

Thought we looked rubbish in the States and conceded way too much. No idea what the fascination with Casimero is. Take the Scot any day of the week. Probably looking at the same as last year

Multi scores

Fulham 2-1/3-1/4-1 @ 8/1

Spot on Vann, Ten Hag is on borrowed time here. Casemiro is only going to get worse as the season goes. United are so open that it won't be long before you see basketball type games with 30+ shots... Fulham corner line was 5.5 and they finished with 8.... Guys, while Ten Hag is still manager, you can make decent profits weekly on this poor united midfield. As oracle says, dont even bother with the 9/10 lines, go take the 18/10 and 2/1 alt lines.

Last season fading united was gold and yet again, their underlying metrics are terrible. Bookies are still pricing united based on name and not the way they are playing atm.

Saturday acca

Over 2.5 match goals at

Norwich
Portsmouth
WBA
Ipswich
Newcastle
West Ham
@ 19/1

Ipswich vs Liverpool

Bet: Liverpool -1.5 @2.00

Liverpool win 3-0 3-1 or 3-2 @ 7/2

Time to test the water and hope the olympic disaster is a distant memory.

BTTS - Yes at
Everton and West Ham @ 14/10

Over 1.5 match goals by
Arsenal/Newcastle/Notts Forest @ 5/2

The Vann wrote: Time to test the water and hope the olympic disaster is a distant memory.

BTTS - Yes at
Everton and West Ham @ 14/10

Over 1.5 match goals by
Arsenal/Newcastle/Notts Forest @ 5/2

Well the water has been tested and we are in shit this season. Two red cards - one against each bet. Looks like I will be risking a few beers for the first five rounds or so.

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

Bet: Draw @3.40

Chelsea vs Man City

Bet: Man City (-0.5) @1.98

I quite fancy Chelsea to get something out of today's encounter against City. Interesting to see Man City's odds to get relegated has been slashed to 11/1 after a date has been set regarding financial fair play. With that hanging over their heads I wouldn't want to be in their camp at present. Chelsea went unbeaten in the league against City last season and with the majority of their newly revamped squad having a season under the belt, we could see their true potential this time round. New managers could go either way, either galvanize or disrupt the team, I think we will see the former and a better season from the Blues

Chelsea double chance at 17/20 for me.

Good luck gents.

Brentford v Palace

Taking the BTTS - yes and over 2.5 goals @ 23/20

Chelsea v Man City

City not prolific at the start of a season so Chelsea could have a shot here per BB. For this to happen would require very few goals as cannot see Chelsea scoring two

Match goals under 2.5 @ 29/20