The Vuelta 2024 Betting Thread

Just caught up now - Castrillo you beauty! A tiny stake but at those odds a nice win

Stage 13 ends with a shortish but brutal climb and there will be GC action

The market suggests the GC will fight for the stage but I am not so sure. The start is tough and the riders that get clear will be strong. BOC's team will be happy for the break to win so it will likely be up to Bora to chase and I am not convinced they have the team to do so and would perhaps be better served focusing on the final climb

I am backing the break although it will take a strong climber to win so I think that narrows it down a bit

1 unit Haig win at 31/1 - far enough back to be given room and can finish from the break

0.5 unit on
Fortunato at 63/1 - hasn't shown up much but is climbing well and hoping he breaks out
Vine 63/1 - I think UAE are going to stick a couple in the break
Sivakov 83/1 - see above although he may not be given leash

0.25 unit
Rubio 100/1 - done very little but I am worried I leave him and he wins
Geoghegan Hart 155/1 - has done nothing but if he finds form is an excellent climber - price driven bet
Quintana 190/1 - similar log to the 2 plays directly above

Vine was looking good and a pity about the crash although I don't think he would have lived with Woods up that climb - easy to say afterwards but Woods an obvious pick there and disappointed I overlooked him

Nice work on your double Vann

Time to hit the books for stage 14

Looking at Stage 14's profile and what lies ahead on Stage 15 I think Saturday is nailed on for a break.

The only exception would be if someone dangerous to GC gets in the break and teams chase to protect positions.

That is unlikely though so lets get some riders with break prospects

This is also the type of stage where putting men in the break for a GC man to ride across to could be a good tactic but I think powder will be kept dry for Sunday.

The top 3 in the betting WVA, Narvaez and Poole have obvious chances but I tend to avoid WVA the day after he has worked really hard and the others are a bit too short for my liking

0.5 unit Dunbar 40/1 - he has looked really strong and can climb and sprint which may be needed given the descent and then flat finish
0.5 unit Kung 48/1 - the final climb is a big ask but it is long not steep and from the right break he can win
0.5 units Verona 96/1 - looked good on stage 12 and took today fairly easy
0.5 unit Riccitello 120/1 - I expected more of him but he had a crash and seems to be riding well

0.25 unit Strong at 150/1 - probably too hard for him but he has been climbing well and is a quick finisher
0.5 unit Cepeda at 180/1 - has looked strong and if not on Carapaz duty is a big runner from the break

2.75 units invested

Also going to look at Match Bets in the morning

One match bet today

2 units Schmid/Van Aert 2/1 (WSB)

Both been active on breaks and expect Schmid in again. Not as sure with WVA as suspect he may be planning a mountain points raid tomorrow

I see alot of bookies not listing Tejada today but 66/1 Pokerbet

Adding 0.5 units on him and 0.5 units Haig at 60/1

Wow not many would have called a sprint finish with Visma keeping the break in check - brilliant win for Groves

Strong gave me a run for my money with 3rd but never close to winning

Stage 15 is a brute not long but 4 climbs including a monster to end with

Athough Bora or Movi could keep the break in check I think that a strong break will have a chance

This is a stage that will be won by a pure climber and so the list of winners is alot narrower and the prices not quite as wild

An early play for me

1u Gall win at 50/1 - I am hoping he is let off the leash and he seems to have some great legs

0.5 unit on each of the following

Woods 18/1
Vine 25/1
Dunbar 25/1
Riccitllo 31/1

Matchbet Double

Bennett/Vlasov - hoping Vlasov works early and sits up onto Roglic/Mas - think Mas may start to fade at 23/10 - 2 units

Throwing in some KOM bets

2 units Vine at 25/2

0.75 units
Gall at 155/1
Riccitello 130/1

Don't usually take top 3 but Gall at 17/1 for a unit

Great going on the match bets Vann

What a Vuelta its been with no dominant team

No joy for me on the stage but that Vine KOM play was well timed and Castrillo I should not have doubted you - what a ride

Looking forward to the final week

Another really tough stage with a brutal final climb

I favour a GC battle but its not a given.
My prediction is that Boro look to control the break again.
A break of 6-10 riders get clear carrying some strong riders including hopefully Vine to secure Polka Dot points - I also think we could get the GC men sticking a man in the break as he could be useful between the 2nd climb and the final one in which case the break could be a bit bigger

On the penultimate Cat 1 climb the entire Movistar team move to the front to set the tough pace and the race is ripped to shreds with only the GC men and perhaps a key lieutenant in the mix at the top - I could well see O'Conner and perhaps a couple of the top 10 distanced at this point which is where the satellite riders will come in handy to help build the gap.

The break will hopefully still be ahead and will extend their advantage a bit before the final climb but will it be enough? Probably not but that won't stop me throwing a few speculative punts in on a few potential breakaway victors

0.5 units
Woods 35/1 - looks strong and would be fav from a break on this climb
Riccitello 61/1 - this guy has been one of my leaks in this Vuelta, hping he finds his legs
Haig 98/1 - well back now - get in the break son

0.25 units on
Valter 105/1 - been quiet but looked good on Sunday - i expect Visma to have at least 1 in the break
Quntana 125/1 - Movi might send 1 in the break and I hope its Nairo
Pacher 360/1 - has really impressed and hard to see him winning but hey what a price

1 unit on this match bet treble at 10.66/1

Kuss/Landa 1.85/1 - Landa showed signs of weakness despite putting his team on the front - remember he rode the TDF as well and may be tiring, I think Kuss getting stronger
Haig/Guilaume 1.07/1 - The latter very unpredictable and I just didn't think he should be fav
Gaudu/O'Conner 9/10 - Gaudu riding fairly well and I think O'Conner could crack a bit tomorrow

No joy yesterday on what was another brilliant stage to watch (I called Movi moving to the front pefectly LOL)

Riccitello gave me hope but what a ride from Soler. Haig was in every break but the correct one

Really sad to see WVA crash out after taking the 2 Cat 1's - what a rider and I and Vine had thrown in the Polka Dot towel however the fact that Vine rode to 4th despite letting go at the bottom of the final climb suggests to me he could be in todays break for some smaller points

Being the 3rd week of the tour a break must stand a chance but looking at the speed of Groves and the strength of his team I think he wins this one and will keep things simple

2 units Groves win at 1.91/1

Phew that was quite a chase in the end but Groves gets the job done.

Stage 18 looks like a likely break and alot of my fancies are a bit short for my liking so I am going to stretch the net a bit wider

0.5 unit on

Frigo 41/1 - been a monster and climbing excellently - I think this stage will suit him
Zana at 49/1 - I lost faith in him but he was excellent on Tuesday finishing runner up on a really tough stage
Valter 62/1 - I have been noticing him more and if he has the legs as I suspect he does he will enjoy this stage

Looking at this stage profile I find myself thinking its perfect for an ambush

If you are Bora or Movistar send a rider or 2 in the break, attack at the top of the Cat 1 distancing rivals and have them waiting to work to the finish - the riders chasing won't have team mates

It is highly unlikely but hell I am a romantic

0.5 unit Roglic at 62/1

0.25 unit
Skjelmose 185/1
Yates 245/1

2.5 units invested

Adding Tejhada 0.25 unit at 99/1
Been in so many breaks and I expect him in this one

1 unit Bittner/Groves at 63/20
Based purely on price, a good chance both of them sit up at some point in which case its a lottery

Not a good stage for me although another nice one to watch - there was an ambush of Landa but it was too late to impact the stage

A couple of big stages ahead

wont be able to watch and likely a GC day but I can see the break hanging on - here are some darts

0.5 unit
Fortunato 84/1 - surely he goes for the break
Riccitello 100/1 - expect him in break but will need climbing improvement
Haig 100/1 - done nothing, now is the time

0.25 unit
Quintana and Rubio both 190/1 - hoping Movi send a rider or 2 up the road
Parra 320/1 - riding well while teammates take the glory

Not sure how much I will get to watch but will throw a few darts at the regular suspects and hope the break sticks

0.5 unit on

Riccitello 32/1
Fortunato 41/1
Zana 42/1
Haig 100/1

Wow what a roller coaster the KOM was but Vine hung on with the GC group to edge it and insure I finish in profit

Great ride from Dunbar to win the stage

I think Kung finally gets his GT stage win today and expect a big ride from Skjelmose

1 unit King 3/1
1 unit Sjkelmose top 3 at 7/1