URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Brent Graham
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7 months 3 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham

URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October was created by Brent Graham

My main bet of the weekend was over 45.5 in the Stormers game and thank goodness that arrived as it was in real trouble at one point. With some coin in the purse (as Coil would say) I had a go at over 44.5 in the Connacht v Leinster game where I snuck in on 45 points.

Those 2 close shaves made up for missing the 10/1 newsletter acca when the Sharks conceded 2 tries in the last 90 seconds against Glasgow to blow the -8.5

I was up and down in the other game but it ended up being a good weekend and much needed after the train smash of last week.

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We have some international rugby this weekend with Japan v New Zealand at 07h50 on Saturday morning - I wonder what Eddie has in store for the All Blacks?

The URC continues and here are my projected handicaps:

Benetton +3.5 v Bulls
Scarlets -12.5 v Zebre
Stormers -6.5 v Glasgow
Ospreys +5.5 v Edinburgh
Sharks -6.5 v Munster (I am assuming Bok players re available)
Leinster -9.5 v Lions (I read that the Irish players wont be available)
Cardiff +4.5 v Ulster
Connacht -14.5 v Dragons

Plenty of other rugby on the go including the NPC final.

I look forward to your thoughts and have a good week

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7 months 3 weeks ago #2 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

No bets as of yet but a couple of games in urc out of line with what I made the games to be.

Dragons +17 . I realise I probably didn't factor in how decimated dragons were last week. Will need to get some injury updates on that

Munster +6. Again here I'm not fully up to speed on whether irish international will travel home or be available

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Brent Graham
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7 months 3 weeks ago #3 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Not sure what the opening lines were and if there has been movement but here are my caps compared to current lines at WSB

Benetton +3.5 (+4.5) v Bulls
Scarlets -12.5 (-17.5) v Zebre
Stormers -6.5 (-6.5) v Glasgow
Ospreys +5.5 (+6.5) v Edinburgh
Sharks -6.5 (-6.5) v Munster
Leinster -9.5 (-18.5) v Lions
Cardiff +4.5 (+3.5) v Ulster
Connacht -14.5 (-16.5) v Dragons

I had heard Leinster would not have Irish players but believe that is not the case so I won't be piling into the +18.5 Lions

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7 months 3 weeks ago #4 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Bristol -4.5 @1.95 2.5u

Correct me if wrong but england interntionals are in Spain right now and won't feature in Premiership this weekend. That means Northampton without 8 players (entire backline) while Bristol only two players out. Northampton away from home is a different animal and Bristol come wounded.

I had a 10 points home advantage before this news so maybe two scores for the home side now, big stake.

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7 months 3 weeks ago #5 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

I think they are Pablo and I had taken northampton at +7.5 without considering this.

I have also taken Newcastle +19.5. Not a pretty bet and Gloucester will be all guns blazing after being caught by Leicester.

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Brent Graham
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7 months 3 weeks ago #6 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Very little movement on the URC caps

If you enjoyed your Super Rugby back in the day SA teams played and Rugby World Cups (who doesn't) then join us at 22h00 tomorrow for a Rugby quiz

You play on your phone but I will also be live on You Tube with a couple of guests to reminisce a bit

Join the game at this link ahaslides.com/NVN9Q

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7 months 3 weeks ago #7 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

I had initially put the Glasgow game as +7 for them and that's where the line is but looking a bit deeper I'm thinking Glasgow can get at least a losing BP.

Does anyone know if the Scottish players will be available? Anyone have a feel on this cap?

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Brent Graham
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7 months 3 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

I don't have a strong feel but imagine any players that made the trip will be available for Glasgow

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7 months 3 weeks ago #9 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Have taken Glasgow+8 . Think they can make a game of it

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Brent Graham
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7 months 3 weeks ago #10 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

The Handicap is live tonight at 21h00

Join The Mossman, The Oracle and myself - Click here to set a reminder on You Tube

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Pablo
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7 months 3 weeks ago #11 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Montauban -4 ha @1.833 just 1u for tonigt.

Some rotation Grenoble, 8-10 points home advantage in my books. Just one unit because Montauban let me down in the past.

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Kirky
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7 months 3 weeks ago #12 by Kirky

Replied by Kirky on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Pablo wrote: Montauban -4 ha @1.833 just 1u for tonigt.

Some rotation Grenoble, 8-10 points home advantage in my books. Just one unit because Montauban let me down in the past.

I took either side by 7 or less @ 1.97
PD2 is not so reliable as before with home wins, but we persevere

Top14 gave us a nice hit last week. Felt so good
More of the same, please

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #13 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Benetton v Bulls Preview

The 1st preview is up and I am on over 42.5 at 9/10

Unless the weather comes in quicker than forecast I can see this shifting to say 44.5 by kick off

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #14 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

URC plays in n SA games will be posted in this blog

Zebre +18.5 at 9/10 1st up

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southpaw

7 months 2 weeks ago #15 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Brent Graham wrote: Benetton v Bulls Preview

The 1st preview is up and I am on over 42.5 at 9/10

Unless the weather comes in quicker than forecast I can see this shifting to say 44.5 by kick off

Will join Brent on this one, similar feelings.

Over 42.5 @ 10/11 with PP.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #16 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

There was 54 available briefly in the saints Bristol game but it is 57 now. I would be in the overs camp.

One concern is maybe that the saints lack cohesion with this team so just a standard stake on the o57

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #17 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Lou -11.5 @1.91 just 1u

Big rotation Bayonne but lineup doesn't look bad in my eyes, and bench is pretty nice so just one unit. I wait for points in this match, Lou over or even total over depends on where it open.

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Sharkster
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7 months 2 weeks ago #18 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Brent Graham wrote: Benetton v Bulls Preview

The 1st preview is up and I am on over 42.5 at 9/10

Unless the weather comes in quicker than forecast I can see this shifting to say 44.5 by kick off

Any cameras for you to look at in treviso

? I can see 41.5 available. What source are you seeing that weather might be OK for the game?

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #19 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

I looked at a couple of sites including this one www.myweather2.com/Rugby/Italy/Stadio-Comunale-di-Monigo.aspx

The rain was only shown after 22h00 when I did the preview but that has changed now

The line is low enough that I am not too concerned and hoping the forecast changes again

Having seen the updated forecast I would not be charging in though

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #20 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

U45.5 angouleme-biarritz @1.83 2u

Bad weather during the whole day and during the match. I had an expected line of 42 in mean conditions so with medium rain It should be below 40 points.

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Mspimspi
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7 months 2 weeks ago #21 by Mspimspi

Replied by Mspimspi on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

do you know it's a synthetic pitch?

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #22 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Stormers v Glasgow Preview

Money coming for Glasgow and taking 31/ on the board at WSB

Would take same bet up until 2/1

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #23 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Yeah, I know. If It wasn't I'd put the line around 32-34 points in this conditions. With synthetic I'd put close to 40, so u45.5 seems nice to me for an under.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #24 by mikebrown

Replied by mikebrown on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

hello pablo
first of all I love your bets that I follow every week.
agree with that one but watch out for the slight turnover of Biarritz on the synthetic pitch of Chanzy.
I prefer over saxv 10.5 1st half with biarritz big bench

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7 months 2 weeks ago #25 by mikebrown

Replied by mikebrown on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

bet prod2
brive over 31.5 pts 1.8
over saxv 10.5 pts 1st half 1.8

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #26 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Hi Mike,

You're right about that, actually Angouleme should start to be reliable at home so I lean on them. BOP even with some rotation are still a strong team specially because this year they have a very good coaching team.

Agree about Brive, heavy rotation Dax but weather will be like in Angouleme. I'll wait but the bet there is Brive over for sure. I don't think Dax this year will be in the top spots.

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #27 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

You can now get over 41.5 at 1/1 at Boyles

Here is a web cam in Treviso - a bit challenging to see weather at night but no umbrellas yet and good lighting means we should pick up rain.
Latest forecast I checked has rain starting later again - who knows though
www.webcamtaxi.com/en/italy/veneto/trevi...nori-square-cam.html

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LoneWolf
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7 months 2 weeks ago #28 by LoneWolf

Replied by LoneWolf on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Bulls lose Boeta at 10 and their 3rd choice scrummie Keagan Johannes starting at flyhalf...

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #29 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Thanks Lonewolf that explains Benetton going slight fav with the books

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #30 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Pablo wrote: U45.5 angouleme-biarritz @1.83 2u

Bad weather during the whole day and during the match. I had an expected line of 42 in mean conditions so with medium rain It should be below 40 points.

Fucking terrible bet, you were right mates, not me.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #31 by henryscat

Replied by henryscat on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Watching south african club sides reminds me of womens international rugby sides.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #32 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

So is the weather in Treviso that bad or is the game just shite??

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #33 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Man I am in trouble here - Bulls aimless kicking and play is tortured to watch - conditions not great but nowhere near as bad as these sides are making it look - I am almost hoping the rain comes to change something - ended up pressing the over 41.5 sh*t

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Chiefie
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7 months 2 weeks ago #34 by Chiefie

Replied by Chiefie on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

henryscat wrote: Watching south african club sides reminds me of womens international rugby sides.

Watching Welsh club sides reminds me of wheelchair rugby

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #35 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Now I remember why I banned laying Bristol last year, everytime there´s value on their side they literally play like headless chickens.

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Sharkster
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7 months 2 weeks ago #36 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Bad start to the weekend for me 0-2 . Only positive is I avoided some picks I kinda fancied and also fell on their face even that could be a negative.

Hopefully pick it up tomorrow

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7 months 2 weeks ago - 7 months 2 weeks ago #37 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Just lost on the NPC final overs so now its Japan +34.5 - I'm digging the hole deeper!

EDIT: What a collapse - arse.

Last edit: 7 months 2 weeks ago by Jameson.

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #38 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Disappointed we didn't get the Japan v New Zealand game on Supersport but thinking back this happens every year

Leinster v Lions Preview

Lions under 16.5 at 9/10

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago - 7 months 2 weeks ago #39 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

u44.5 montpellier-stade rochelais @1.83 2u

I think that won´t last, weather will be terrible. I had an expected line of 44.5 in mean conditions but with this forecast I´d put this around 34-35 points so big value here.

Last edit: 7 months 2 weeks ago by Pablo.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #40 by mikebrown

Replied by mikebrown on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Big Big bet
Racing USAP Over 48,5 pts 1,8
Little over 62,5 pts racing usap

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Kirky
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7 months 2 weeks ago #41 by Kirky

Replied by Kirky on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Pablo wrote: U45.5 angouleme-biarritz @1.83 2u

Bad weather during the whole day and during the match. I had an expected line of 42 in mean conditions so with medium rain It should be below 40 points.

tears here - baaaa

Had 3 (2 units ea) win accumulaters lost in PD2. they included all pluses on the (3) 2-digit h/caps.

I had the wrong winner on Valence Romains beating Nicois.

IF the -3.5 Nicois had just won at home, they would of paid me about 35 units.

Now nothing but tears

As I begin my Top 14 accas

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Pablo
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7 months 2 weeks ago #42 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Kirky wrote:
Pablo wrote: U45.5 angouleme-biarritz @1.83 2u

Bad weather during the whole day and during the match. I had an expected line of 42 in mean conditions so with medium rain It should be below 40 points.

tears here - baaaa

Had 3 (2 units ea) win accumulaters lost in PD2. they included all pluses on the (3) 2-digit h/caps.

I had the wrong winner on Valence Romains beating Nicois.

IF the -3.5 Nicois had just won at home, they would of paid me about 35 units.

Now nothing but tears
As I begin my Top 14 accas

Yesterday was weird in the Pro D2, there were three matches with heavy rain and all went overs. However the "dry" matches were unders ...

In Top14 I have over expectations in Vannes, Lyon and Bordeaux with the lines we have now.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #43 by Laraxwell

Replied by Laraxwell on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Glasgow Over 20.5pts v Stormers 5/6 Boylesports

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Sharkster
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7 months 2 weeks ago #44 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Stopped the bleed with bop covering. With the bets placed and how lines have moved I would be happy to come away breaking even this weekend.

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7 months 2 weeks ago #45 by dholliday

Replied by dholliday on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Laraxwell wrote: Glasgow Over 20.5pts v Stormers 5/6 Boylesports

Agreed, love Glasgow over & anyone with a WSB account, Glasgow over 7.5 HT points is mispriced 8/10

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southpaw

7 months 2 weeks ago #46 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Over 48.5 @ 5/6 stormers Glasgow

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7 months 2 weeks ago #47 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Overs going well again chaps .... Whatever happened to free flowing running rugby ffs??

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7 months 2 weeks ago #48 by Roger Rabbit

Replied by Roger Rabbit on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Great call Brent , you have been very bullish on Glasgow all week, thanks for the confidence!

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7 months 2 weeks ago #49 by Bookie Basher

Replied by Bookie Basher on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Agree regarding the above sentiments, great call Brent!

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Brent Graham
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7 months 2 weeks ago #50 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 6 Gallagher Prem Week 7, NPC final, Japan v All Blacks 25-27 October

Cheers lads been a nice recovery

Acca ending on Lions u16.5 and taking some over 14.5 to cover the stake x 2.5

Got a 2 point middle

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