Super Rugby Week 8, Champions & Challenge Cup Round of 16 4-6 April

Southpaw wrote: apologies if anyone followed on overs. If it’s gives you any comfort that was my single biggest losing bet of year. gave back so much hard worked profits from recent weeks. Bitterly disappointed in my form this morning.

Tail between my leg for rest of weekend. Not sure if have stomach to get back on horse or stay away for another day.

To be honest that was a WEIRD configuration, it looked like the overs would be reached very comfortably at half time.

Reminds me of last week where I had a 17+ odds treble on three top 14 teams for scores ( SF 30+, ASM Clermont 35+ and Bayonne 30+ ) and all of them were like 2 points from my goal 30 minutes from the end of the game and only one of them barely made it ( SF 32 pts ) ...

Sh*t happens *shrugs*

Having had a tough week of work I decided to watch all the SR games early hours , some varied results at the end of it and despite feeling tired I'm getting geared for what should be a good day I hope , Spring has sprung in the UK and the weather is love lee as they say . Grand National on as well and will be following Aintree , football and golf later tonight .

Kicking off

Sarries are taking quite a bit of stick by the press and fans for resting most of their 1st team players , Toulon at home a very good side , the cap looks big at first glance even with a weakened Saracens side and I expect them to put up a fight early on , after that is any bodies guess so I'm going to for the plus 7.5 HT Saracens for a light strike.

The Challenge Cup game to kick off Saturday features Bayonne and Bulls , always difficult to gauge French sides in this tournament but I really like the home side in this and have fired on the plus 1.5 .

Sarries on fire!!

Putting in o54 in the Gloucester game

Sharkster wrote: I know we may not get caps for the challenge cup tomorrow or for a few days even but looking at fixtures it might be worth keeping an eye on press releases etc from teams that may not care much about the comp. I wonder how bulls will view this comp

i believe Jake should go back to coaching at school level, so that will give you an inkling on my Bulls opinion, BUT:
They're up against a very good TOP14 team who have not lost (10 ) a game at home for a long time.
The Bulls have lost both their last two EPCC matches ( L to Castres by 39, and Saries by 22 )

AND bulls are 5 point favorites ??

Anyway I reckon somebody's messed up. and I don't need a second opportunity.
The highest bet I could find was Sunbet Bayonne to win by 13+ @ 6.00
I have Bayonne to win by 24
My confidence is however, shot hell atm, so, take a look at it and see what lt looks like to you
Best of luck to all, cheers:woohoo:

Apologies The game has started

Southpaw wrote: apologies if anyone followed on overs. If it’s gives you any comfort that was my single biggest losing bet of year. gave back so much hard worked profits from recent weeks. Bitterly disappointed in my form this morning.

Tail between my leg for rest of weekend. Not sure if have stomach to get back on horse or stay away for another day.

I'd say I speak for most of us when I say no need to apologise at all. You put your bets here week in week out. Anyone tailing on free thoughts can't complain

henryscat wrote: Sarries on fire!!

Crazy 62 points 1st half... WTF...

Toulon nowhere to be found for the first 30+ minutes, absolutely gasping for air because of the rythm this Sarrie team was imposing.
Also missing everything, but it looks like they might be finally getting their S together and starting to fire on all cylinder.

Wonder what will happen in the 2d half. This match is gonna keep us on the edge of our seats I think.
What team will start the second half better will most likely be victorious.

Also what a performance from Theo Dan, he is a future star for England for sure.

I'm in the o55.5 2u in Toulon and happy that landed easily but also in Toulon -17 just 1u and I'm truly amazed how Toulon started the match thinking this was going to be a very easy win for them.

Mignoni should be happy.

coil wrote: Having had a tough week of work I decided to watch all the SR games early hours , some varied results at the end of it and despite feeling tired I'm getting geared for what should be a good day I hope , Spring has sprung in the UK and the weather is love lee as they say . Grand National on as well and will be following Aintree , football and golf later tonight .

Kicking off

Sarries are taking quite a bit of stick by the press and fans for resting most of their 1st team players , Toulon at home a very good side , the cap looks big at first glance even with a weakened Saracens side and I expect them to put up a fight early on , after that is any bodies guess so I'm going to for the plus 7.5 HT Saracens for a light strike.

The Challenge Cup game to kick off Saturday features Bayonne and Bulls , always difficult to gauge French sides in this tournament but I really like the home side in this and have fired on the plus 1.5 .

Looks like the covered that 7.5+ HT quite comfortably xD:woohoo:

Pablo wrote: I'm in the o55.5 2u in Toulon and happy that landed easily but also in Toulon -17 just 1u and I'm truly amazed how Toulon started the match thinking this was going to be a very easy win for them.

Mignoni should be happy.

Agreed they were obviously surprised and most likely underestimated Sarries big time, thinking that young team would come in as " sacrificial lambs " .
Obviously they were groggy after the first 15 minutes and also gasped for air because of Saracens's very high intensity/rythm.

We will see if Toulon can do the remontada convincingly but first 10' of 2d half will be crucial

Slightly behind , very disappointed with Bayonne but Bulls the more dangerous side in the end. Crazy game in Toulon .

Castres normally very strong at home but I'm going for Benetton for a small bet on the plus 8.5 as I hope they progress ,

I can't look past a large Leinster in and have flown in to the minus 20.5 at 4/5.

Great shouts coil.

I was too low to post this but attached my 13/1 boosted acca to try recover today. First 2 in, I guess guaranteed I go out on the next but here’s hoping -

Leinster different division there and Benetton well played . I'm joining with Munster but I'm not very confident as that La Rochelle pack is still a beast to deal with , plus 7.5 at 4/5 .

Unders in Montpellier at 54.5

Lyon minus 14.5 against the Sharks

Unders 51.5 Ospreys game

Harlequins ?
More like Bozos today...

Castres pulled out the hailmary win as usual with them ( they are doing this so many times in top 14 at home )

Southpaw wrote: Great shouts coil.

I was too low to post this but attached my 13/1 boosted acca to try recover today. First 2 in, I guess guaranteed I go out on the next but here’s hoping -

Can’t seem to get the attached image working? Will have to trust me but anyway remaining 3 games -

La Rochelle Munster over 47.5
Glasgow Leicester over 47.5
Montpellier Gloucester over 51.5

All above 4/6

The 2 in already were -
Castres Benetton over 47.5
Leinster Quins over 55.5
Also 4/6

Badly need some luck today.

coil wrote: Leinster different division there and Benetton well played . I'm joining with Munster but I'm not very confident as that La Rochelle pack is still a beast to deal with , plus 7.5 at 4/5 .

Unders in Montpellier at 54.5

Lyon minus 14.5 against the Sharks

Unders 51.5 Ospreys game

Quins smoked my 37 acca.:'(

I expect La Rochelle to level up, kinda like Leinster did today.
Not sold on Munster but I wouldn't be surprised if LR suddendly wakes up in KO stage, they are accustomed to doing this.
The lined up a solid team. I see a Teddy Thomas try, and also either a Jegou or Botia one.

Over 51 in the connacht game

Racing 92 field a C team but I think they can win here and have taken some 5/4 .

Gone under 53.5 in Glasgow

And finally a small plus 8.5 Cardiff to give some Welsh cheer

Southpaw wrote:

Southpaw wrote: Great shouts coil.

I was too low to post this but attached my 13/1 boosted acca to try recover today. First 2 in, I guess guaranteed I go out on the next but here’s hoping -

Can’t seem to get the attached image working? Will have to trust me but anyway remaining 3 games -

La Rochelle Munster over 47.5
Glasgow Leicester over 47.5
Montpellier Gloucester over 51.5

All above 4/6

The 2 in already were -
Castres Benetton over 47.5
Leinster Quins over 55.5
Also 4/6

Badly need some luck today.

Cannot catch a break and another shocker 2nd half kills me. 31 pts 1st half in Montpellier, 10 in 2nd half. Like Force game, 39 1st half then 10 2nd.

Should just have tailed coil and Brent who have put up plenty winners.

Hopefully find something tomorrow but put a fork in me I’m done for Saturday.

Sharkster wrote: Over 51 in the connacht game

Bad one

coil wrote: Racing 92 field a C team but I think they can win here and have taken some 5/4 .

Gone under 53.5 in Glasgow

And finally a small plus 8.5 Cardiff to give some Welsh cheer

Thanks dude

Phew, I've managed to almost fully dig myself out of the pit I was in earlier today by winning on Leinster overs (somehow), Munster +6 and just cashed in early on Glasgow -7 despite them looking like they will win well.

Tomorrows another day ........

Sharkster wrote:

Sharkster wrote: Over 51 in the connacht game

Bad one

Came around

The obvious plays for me tomorow are overs match points. I think there's is usually a pattern of French teams doing damage early and leaking after that. Very simple view

The totals are high. Might one for try totals

Needed Leicester Over 19.5pts for the final part of a 6 time Accumulator
Leicester scored 19pts
This would have been my biggest win in 4 years.
Tough on the senses
Southpaw is not alone

Toulouse v Sale, I’m hoping this game is tight enough at halftime similar to Toulon/Saracens. There’s a big difference in the quality of the substitutes.

Brent Graham wrote: Lyon v Sharks Preview

Most bookies holding back on points lines but there is over 55.5 and that is where I am heading for a decent strike

Thanks Brent for kind words. Will try like all old-in-the-tooth punters do and look to bounce back strongly.

Will start today tailing on the overs as I will get to watch whole game for a change.

Over 54.5 Lyon sharks @ 5/6 (coral here in UK)

Laraxwell wrote: Needed Leicester Over 19.5pts for the final part of a 6 time Accumulator
Leicester scored 19pts
This would have been my biggest win in 4 years.
Tough on the senses
Southpaw is not alone

Rough but im nearly sure I heard mossman on the handicap show say you are way more likely to lose one leg of and acca than win an acca. I'm not sure where that came from to be honest.

Unbelievable Lara , very very stiff .

Came down to earth a little last night in the Cardiff game , conceding in the last minute , sigh , to kill the plus 8.5 .

Have taken Lyon minus 14.5 already but not as confident as I was originally as Lyon can blow hot n cold.

Toulouse are sensational and I've flown into the minus 22.5 so am hoping for a the right old spanking of Sale.

Lastly I'll throw a few shekels , only , at Scarlets plus 6.5 and 2/1 outright .

Lou o36.5 @1.83 2u

Line for me should be around 40 points with this lineups. Lou going strong, very surprised they field an almost Top14 team, while Sharks without the bulk. Weather good.

A few exotics in Toulouse -

1st try Meafou 10/1
Last try Marchand 16/1
Man match ntamack 8/1

Lyon without Couilloud and Berdeu has Federal level ...

Southpaw wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Lyon v Sharks Preview

Most bookies holding back on points lines but there is over 55.5 and that is where I am heading for a decent strike

Thanks Brent for kind words. Will try like all old-in-the-tooth punters do and look to bounce back strongly.

Will start today tailing on the overs as I will get to watch whole game for a change.

Over 54.5 Lyon sharks @ 5/6 (coral here in UK)

Apologies Brent for cursing this one. As expected I’ve managed to stop a train and thus ends my weekend which was a disaster. In fact I looked so many other bets to get stuck into but held off and all of those would have been losers as well. So a small positive was that amazingly it could have been worse.

Highs and lows this punting game, got to ride both.

Somehow Sharks score in the last second and convert it to fuk the cap , sigh.

Nice second half Lyon, against a bench of kids.

I’m stunned. A break actually went my way. Somehow the Lyon sharks over 54.5 lands. I was just staring at the screen waiting for a TMO check check, such was my rotten luck yesterday.

Still a losing weekend after yesterday’s poor showing but that certainly softens the blow.