Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 15 + other rugby 18-20 April

Tahs have a bye next week Brent I doubt they rest anyone. Also Sua'ali outright said he would quit, if Aussie rugby try to rest him between now and Lions tour.

Have taken the canes -2.5 this is a similar feeling I had when backing the reds last week early

I have the tahs favs but the game is in Fiji which can bring out a big game for them also tahs are not a team to trust much

Sharks going strong to Europe. Will want to win the URC given they gave up on the Challenge cup.

Etzebeth, Fassi, Williams and the big guns travelling.

Taking them +5.5 now

Connacht sent a weak squad to SA (Aki, Blade, Ioane, Hurley-Langton, Hansen, Buckley out)

Stormers -16.5 @1.78 just 1u

Looks like lots jumped on sharks. I think some of their big names are back. I'm happy to wait and see how far the line moves and take edinburgh. It is edi or no bet for me

Sharkster wrote: Have taken the canes -2.5 this is a similar feeling I had when backing the reds last week early

I have the tahs favs but the game is in Fiji which can bring out a big game for them also tahs are not a team to trust much

Add brumbies here -4

Sharkster wrote: Looks like lots jumped on sharks. I think some of their big names are back. I'm happy to wait and see how far the line moves and take edinburgh. It is edi or no bet for me

I would say a considered decision.

Pablo wrote: Connacht sent a weak squad to SA (Aki, Blade, Ioane, Hurley-Langton, Hansen, Buckley out)

Stormers -16.5 @1.78 just 1u

I've done the same thing -17.5 for just 1 unit too.

Then I checked back at my system, and saw that I was nett ( far ) down on the Stormers.
They've broken my heart so many times before.

But this time it'll be different

No Ardie Savea for Moana versus the Brumbies this weekend

RugbyEdgeTips wrote:

Sharkster wrote: Looks like lots jumped on sharks. I think some of their big names are back. I'm happy to wait and see how far the line moves and take edinburgh. It is edi or no bet for me

I would say a considered decision.

You will have the clv here on the sharks but I made a rule that I don't side with the sharks and often oppose them and it's been worth it. I just think they are usually less than the sum of their parts.

I'll prob just no bet for this one.

Sharkster wrote:

RugbyEdgeTips wrote:

Sharkster wrote: Looks like lots jumped on sharks. I think some of their big names are back. I'm happy to wait and see how far the line moves and take edinburgh. It is edi or no bet for me

I would say a considered decision.

You will have the clv here on the sharks but I made a rule that I don't side with the sharks and often oppose them and it's been worth it. I just think they are usually less than the sum of their parts.

I'll prob just no bet for this one.

In fairness to you probably a good rule to have because there are infuriating to back much of the time. I just think it’s the business end of the season, they had their rest, they had their team meetings, they have a target to win all 4 games in the run in to get those home matches and possibly avoid Leinster until the final. Edinburgh have just gone to the well a couple of times to get themselves to a semi-final. There might be a mental gap in that regard. And the +5.5 was too good to turn down with Etzebeth in the mix, they might not have to play the weak links. Will be interesting to see team selections later

Tbh it's the right move to take the number when you know it's going to move in your favour. It's-3 sharks now

What’s every thinking on the crusaders blues game ? Low scoring tight affair ?

Edinburgh +4.5 @1.806 2u

Going against general feeling, for me value in Edinburgh even with Sharks going strong.

Also closed Stormers -16.5 going Connacht +17.5 also 1u with little losses, except if Stormers win by 17.

PS: Also u52.5 @1.80 2u in Edinburgh. Not terrible weather but light rain and medium wind.

Like you Pablo taking edi on the plus.

Brent Graham wrote:

Pablo wrote: Edinburgh +4.5 @1.806 2u

Going against general feeling, for me value in Edinburgh even with Sharks going strong.

Also closed Stormers -16.5 going Connacht +17.5 also 1u with little losses, except if Stormers win by 17.

PS: Also u52.5 @1.80 2u in Edinburgh. Not terrible weather but light rain and medium wind.

Pablo curious as to why you closing the Stormers play. Doing the preview tonight and I was eyeing out the minus

May regret my words, but Connacht 23 doesn´t look as bad as I expected. If I had to bet I´d keep Stormers -16 but no value in my opinion with this lineups.

Actually market think very similar, Stomers went from +20.5 to +17.5 after lineups.

I see it’s raining in Edinburgh. Already on Sharks 17/10 win dnb but will add a few exotics -

1st try Bongi 12/1
Player of match esterhuizen 12/1 (well overdue a big game).

Would you still back the Sharks DNB ?

Pablo wrote: Edinburgh +4.5 @1.806 2u

Going against general feeling, for me value in Edinburgh even with Sharks going strong.

Also closed Stormers -16.5 going Connacht +17.5 also 1u with little losses, except if Stormers win by 17.

PS: Also u52.5 @1.80 2u in Edinburgh. Not terrible weather but light rain and medium wind.

Both bets arrived in Ediburgh

Edi plus arrives and in a weird one whether in the sharks or edi I think most cashed

Ospreys -1 against Cardiff. Have this a few points more for ospreys

Southpaw wrote: I see it’s raining in Edinburgh. Already on Sharks 17/10 win dnb but will add a few exotics -

1st try Bongi 12/1
Player of match esterhuizen 12/1 (well overdue a big game).

Nice one on Esterhuizen South!

Brent Graham wrote: Nice one South and played Sharks, Edinburgh and unders backers - there was something there for everyone

A decent Friday for me with 2 small plays arriving

The blogs have been updated

Super Rugby Blog

Waratahs win 2/1
Under 64.4 Moana v Brumbies at 0.97
Chiefs win by 11/20 at 5/2

Had a nibble on the treble at 19/1

URC blog

Waiting for points lines on most but have backed Ulster +8.5 ht handicap - that Leinster bench is stacked

Also like your Ospreys play Sharkster but waiting for points

Anyone know if roof will be closed in Cardiff?

I'm not seeing anything online about the roof brent for 6n games it's well publicised.

Nice one south. You've a knack of getting big prices in lately

-Moana Pasifika to win, versus The Brumbies, 3.10, 2 units (Includes extra time)

-Moana Pasifika to lead at halftime DNB, 2.78, 2 units

1st try mcallister 12/1

Looking at in play for main interest

Points seem to be at a premium today ......

Jameson wrote: Points seem to be at a premium today ......

It’s why I’ve shifted main plays to URC this time of year, points really do seem to dry up in super rugby.

Saying that I’m considering overs in Perth!

u51.5 castres-vannes @1.85 2u

Terrible weather in Castres from 3 to 6 pm, with heavy rain and strong wind. With this conditions line should be in the low 40´s.

Brent Graham wrote:

Southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote: Points seem to be at a premium today ......

It’s why I’ve shifted main plays to URC this time of year, points really do seem to dry up in super rugby.

Saying that I’m considering overs in Perth!

On that note the final SRP Blog post is over 60.5

That’s enough alignment for me. Overs it is! Over 60.5 @ 10/11.

Please no heartbreak in Perth like highlanders game when overs was nailed on at ht.

Stormers over 37.5 pts @ 10/11

Brent Graham wrote: Lions v Benetton Preview

Lions over 30.5 at 17/20

good line. I'm hoping also for a loose game, and Benetton attack been strong this season.

Over 55.5 total pts @ 5/6

sinking feeling re overs in Perth already. both sides offering nothing on attack.

Super Rugby is absolutely shit

Anybody brave enough to go over 46.5 in the Force game at 1/2 time??

I did.

I expect Canes to wake up at some point

One for Chiefie , decided on the one bet , the risky Waratahs plus 7.5 , woke up to watch the bastard and had to endure the full 80 minutes , then thinking I had just manage to shade it , alas the Taaaaahs , fuk around in their own goal line and then concede a try . Sigh.

They sure are trying their hardest to make me lose tbh.

WTF was that pass from Canes's #15 ?

I'm not sure I have ever seen this in 30+years playing and watching rugby, dude just had to score but decided to do an absolutely horrendous pass to the inside to invisible man...

U51.5 pau-ubb @1.82 2u
U47.5 usap-racing @1.8 1u

Looks like bad weather in both matches, not as bad as in Castres but rain and wind makes this lines high in my books.

Moving on to our Super Saturday !

First up , Lions v Benetton, Craig Evans an overs ref and weather is mild. Lions were poor in Scotland but are much better at home. It's a no bet for now as the totals and cap look fair.

Bath have been brutal this season and are 11.5 cap favourites away to Exeter , it's a line they could easily cover but I prefer the hosts to cover this and have found some plus 12.5 at 4/5 . The points are incredibly high at 64.5 and for me it seems to high and will have a smaller bet on the unders .

Preference for Ospreys minus 1.5 against Cardiff and in Cape Town warming to unders at 58.5