Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Brent Graham
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1 month 1 day ago #1 by Brent Graham

Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April was created by Brent Graham

A mixed bag for me this weekend with the Newsletter main bet Lions over 30.5 somehow landing but the Stormers poor 2nd half cost me as the their over 38.5 was in many an acca.

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The rugby never ends and we have another action packed weekend to look forward to

The Week 11 SRP Blog is up and running

Below my projected handicaps

Chiefs -18.5 v Force

Reds +3.5 v Blues

Moana -8.5 v Drua

Highlanders +6.5 v Crusaders

Brumbies -2.5 v Hurricanes

Let me know if there are any obvious errors and I will get the URC blog going later tonight or on Monday morning

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1 month 1 day ago #2 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

The URC Blog is up and running - Click here

Below my handicap projections

Friday, April 25
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 vs Vodacom Bulls
Cardiff +5.5 vs Munster

Saturday, April 26
Emirates Lions -6.5 vs Connacht
Ospreys -8.5 vs Dragons
DHL Stormers -11.5 vs Benetton
Scarlets +8.5 vs Leinster (expecting Leinster to rest players ahead of Investec semi)
Ulster +4.5 vs Hollywoodbets Sharks
Zebre Parma +4.5 vs Edinburgh (tricky, Edinburgh likely to rest players given Challenge Cup home semi against Bath next week)

I look forward to your thoughts

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TheAdmiral
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1 month 1 day ago #3 by TheAdmiral

Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

This is what I had for my SRP and URC caps this week. Obviously all subject to a lot of change over the course of the week. Think we could get some nice prices in the URC.

Chiefs force -17
Reds Blues +1
Moana drua -8
Landers saders +6
Brumbies canes -5

Glasgow bulls -6
Cardiff Munster +7
Ospreys dragons -10
Lions Connacht -8
Stormers Benetton -12
Scarlets Leinster +8
Zebre Edinburgh +4
Ulster sharks +4

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Brent Graham
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1 month 16 hours ago #4 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Cheers Admiral it looks like we are quite aligned.

Below I compare the Betxchange handicaps (in brackets) to mine

Chiefs -18.5 (-18.5) v Force

Reds +3.5 (+0.5) v Blues

Moana -8.5 (-5.5) v Drua

Highlanders +6.5 (+9.5) v Crusaders

Brumbies -2.5 (-5.5) v Hurricanes

Nothing dramatic but 3 point differences in Reds, Moana, Highlanders and Brumbies games. The Brumbies and Reds games very much where The Admiral expected

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TheAdmiral
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1 month 15 hours ago #5 by TheAdmiral

Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Lions -4 my early play, this is not a spot or a fixture I like for Connacht. No other early plays but having a look at sharks -2, Ulster had a lot of injuries vs Leinster and Sharks showed some grit for once last week. Some difference between my cap and bookies cap in landers game but no play there yet.

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Brent Graham
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1 month 14 hours ago #6 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

I have not seen any lines locally on URC but some early moves in Super Rugby

The Chiefs are out to -21.5 from -18.5

The Reds have gone -0.5 from +0.5

Pasifika have edged to -6.5 from -5.5

Highlanders are +10.5 from +9.5

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TheAdmiral
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1 month 13 hours ago #7 by TheAdmiral

Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

These were the opening caps I saw for URC:

Glasgow bulls -3
Cardiff Munster +5
Ospreys dragons -13
Lions Connacht -4 (now -5)
Stormers Benetton -10
Scarlets Leinster +7
Zebre Edinburgh +8 (now +9)
Ulster sharks +2

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Southpaw
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1 month 12 hours ago #8 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Will be absolutely flying into any early points lines for lions Connacht game.

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1 month 11 hours ago #9 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

URC Blog updated

The URC handicaps are up and below is how they compare with mine - bookies caps in brackets - some early moves from the Admirals opening caps post

Glasgow Warriors -9.5 (-3.5) vs Vodacom Bulls - big difference, I like Glasgow at this line
Cardiff +5.5 (+5.5) vs Munster
Emirates Lions -6.5 (-5.5) vs Connacht
Ospreys -8.5 (-12.5) vs Dragons - 4 point difference but think my cap was wrong
DHL Stormers -11.5 (-8.5) vs Benetton
Scarlets +8.5 vs Leinster - no cap but Leinster 3/10 relating to around a +8.5 cap
Ulster +4.5 (+1.5) vs Hollywoodbets Sharks
Zebre Parma +4.5 (+7.5) vs Edinburgh

Considering an early move on Glasgow and like South will be eyeing out the points in Joburg

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Sharkster
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1 month 1 hour ago - 1 month 1 hour ago #10 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Agree with Admiral on Connacht and that's the only bet i have so far this week. Its a very obvious one but will be also keeping an eye on where the bookies release the total for that game with a view to taking overs. I think maybe a few points of based on last weeks games

Last edit: 1 month 1 hour ago by Sharkster.

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Pablo
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4 weeks 1 day ago #11 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Zebre +7.5 @1.90 2u

Edinburgh big injury list plus next week home Challenge Cup SF, so expect second string team here. 50/50 match in my opinion.

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4 weeks 1 day ago #12 by RugbyEdgeTips

Replied by RugbyEdgeTips on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Brisbane vs Canterbury (NRL)

The Bet: Under +42.5 Points @1.91 on Bet365

Wet weather forecasted. Canterbury have nil’ed their last two opponents. Early lines have paid off for me recently

1.5 Unit

Twitter @ RugbyEdgeTips

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Southpaw
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4 weeks 1 day ago #13 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Unbelievably I’m eyeing Sharks again. I think the grit showed last week will gell the squad. Ulster hit badly by injuries.

Sharks -2.5 @ 10/11

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Brent Graham
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4 weeks 14 hours ago #14 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Weather links and points lines up in SRP Week 11 Blog

1st bet to follow shortly

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4 weeks 14 hours ago #15 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

1st bet under 56.5 Reds v Blues based on what looks likely to be wet and humid conditions

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Quill
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3 weeks 6 days ago #16 by Quill

Replied by Quill on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Brent Graham wrote: 1st bet under 56.5 Reds v Blues based on what looks likely to be wet and humid conditions

This evening at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane Broncos played Canterbury Bulldogs in a Rugby League match.

The match was played in heavy rain and we had a festival of tries, 42-18, with just one conversion being missed and many of them were from tight angles.

The pitch looked bad after the game, so that may be our saving grace if we're looking for unders in the Reds vs Blues game tomorrow.

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 6 days ago #17 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Cheers Quill lets hope that pitch is nice and muddy tomorrow

URC Blog Updated with weather links

THE HANDICAP
We are live tonight at 21h00 - The Mossman and The Admiral joining me

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 6 days ago #18 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Glasgow v Bulls Preview

Glasgow -2.5 at 9/10

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 6 days ago #19 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Feeling less confident on Glasgow after tonights show

SRP Blog updated

Force under 21.5 points at 17/20

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3 weeks 6 days ago #20 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

URC Blog Updated

Under 48.5 Cardiff v Munster
Edinburgh win and over 48.5 at 2.15

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #21 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Few late injury withdrawals for Force enough for me to get on Chiefs.

Chiefs over 5.5 tries @ 8/11

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Jameson
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3 weeks 5 days ago #22 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Southpaw wrote: Few late injury withdrawals for Force enough for me to get on Chiefs.

Chiefs over 5.5 tries @ 8/11

Doesn't seem to have impeded their try scoring abilities!!

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sportsbettor
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3 weeks 5 days ago #23 by sportsbettor

Replied by sportsbettor on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Blessed for halfbacks in nz that's for sure

With Ratima and Roigard leading the way

Goal kicking remains a problem area

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #24 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Jameson wrote:
Southpaw wrote: Few late injury withdrawals for Force enough for me to get on Chiefs.

Chiefs over 5.5 tries @ 8/11

Doesn't seem to have impeded their try scoring abilities!!

It’s there bench that was the weak point, had an urgent injury cover lad come into the 23.

Easy Friday money.

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Chief25
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3 weeks 5 days ago #25 by Chief25

Replied by Chief25 on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Nice call SP. What you thinking on the reds/blues game

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #26 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

waiting to see live conditions but a game not set up well for me given expected conditions. I always look for overs but this one would be high risk.

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #27 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Harry Plummer over 4.5 1st half pts @ 10/11

this is my main interest in game. He's normally accurate and can see them taking kicks when offered.

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R3V3R3NT_
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3 weeks 5 days ago #28 by R3V3R3NT_

Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Pitch looks average. But no rain. I kinda think Blues more desperate here.

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coil
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3 weeks 5 days ago - 3 weeks 5 days ago #29 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Points like champagne , we're fooked. The ref Jordan Wray a penalty machine.

Last edit: 3 weeks 5 days ago by coil.

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #30 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Blues hopeless in final moves. Butchered 4 tries.

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #31 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

my gut was right, not sort of game for me to punt. Given back half of Chiefs profits on that Plummer pts bet as thankfully kept stakes lower. Blues are a poorly coached side - not sure how they won it last year.

will turn attention to URC tonight, been a far more profitable tournament.

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Laraxwell
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3 weeks 5 days ago #32 by Laraxwell

Replied by Laraxwell on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Cardiff v Munster

20% chance of rain
Agree with going Unders here.

Gavin Coombes has had a week off so going with him @ 7/5 Anytime try scorer and a nibble on him @ 7/2 to score in First Half
Odds @ Boylesports

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coil
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3 weeks 5 days ago #33 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Taken Blues plus 6.5 at evens at HT

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coil
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3 weeks 5 days ago #34 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Blues really are a joke , agree South , poorly coached and thick as bricks

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TheAdmiral
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3 weeks 5 days ago #35 by TheAdmiral

Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Taken scarlets +13 1.5u. Leinster a bit stronger than i expected but 2 scores is still too much. Not as happy about my lions and sharks plays now. Lions missing a few and Ulster not as hampered with injuries as expected. Waiting for points now

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R3V3R3NT_
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3 weeks 5 days ago #36 by R3V3R3NT_

Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

coil wrote: Blues really are a joke , agree South , poorly coached and thick as bricks

The problem is Christie at 9 and Cotters unwillingness to drop him. Blues look completely different when Nock got in there. Speed of play went 2x speed instantly.

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 5 days ago #37 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Lions Connacht over 60.5 @ 5/6

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Jameson
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3 weeks 5 days ago #38 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

I need 50pts in the Cardiff game. Weather is good - no rain.

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Connachtrugby0
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3 weeks 5 days ago #39 by Connachtrugby0

Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Jameson wrote: I need 50pts in the Cardiff game. Weather is good - no rain.

Welsh rugby is an embarrassment unfortunately. No more than my own team

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Connachtrugby0
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3 weeks 5 days ago #40 by Connachtrugby0

Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Connachtrugby0 wrote:
Jameson wrote: I need 50pts in the Cardiff game. Weather is good - no rain.
Welsh rugby is an embarrassment unfortunately. No more than my own team

Great try that mind you

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Jameson
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3 weeks 5 days ago #41 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Connachtrugby0 wrote:
Connachtrugby0 wrote:
Jameson wrote: I need 50pts in the Cardiff game. Weather is good - no rain.
Welsh rugby is an embarrassment unfortunately. No more than my own team
Great try that mind you

I'm old enough to have seen it all in Welsh rugby. Ups and downs - but generally more ups than downs compared to Irish rugby ...

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Pablo
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3 weeks 5 days ago #42 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Toulouse -16.5 ha @1.90 2u

ST going strong after last week rotation (important players back Willis, Jelonch, Roumat, Ramos, Kinghorn, Marchand, Baille, Flament, Aldegheri, Barassi) while Castres with big rotation (Walcker, Barlot, Vanvenberghe, Maravat, Papalii, Fernandez, Le Brun, Baget, Cocagi, Botitu, Goodhue, Chabouni, Ambadiang out)

Looks like weather will be wet but not enough to me.

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3 weeks 5 days ago #43 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Pablo wrote: Zebre +7.5 @1.90 2u

Edinburgh big injury list plus next week home Challenge Cup SF, so expect second string team here. 50/50 match in my opinion.

Exactly 50/50 match

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 5 days ago #44 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

The wokies at You Tube have taken the show down again and also given the channel a 1 week strike (no streaming or uploads)

The show is still available on X

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3 weeks 5 days ago #45 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

SRP Blog updated

Moana -5.5 at 0.86
High v Crus points 49-55 at 3.80/1
Under 57.5 at 0.97/1 Brumbies v Canes

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Jameson
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3 weeks 4 days ago - 3 weeks 4 days ago #46 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Well that was a good win for Cardiff so I'm happy about that. But what a betting loss on the overs! I needed any score in the last 20 mins but nothing. What grinds the most is a penalty off the posts and a drop goal attempt that shaved them in the last 20..

Arse!

Last edit: 3 weeks 4 days ago by Jameson.

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Southpaw
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3 weeks 4 days ago #47 by Southpaw

Replied by Southpaw on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Highlanders Saders over 55.5 @ 5/6

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 4 days ago #48 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Stormers v Benetton Preview

Over 53.5 at 9/10 - possible newsletter bet sign up here

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Connachtrugby0
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3 weeks 4 days ago #49 by Connachtrugby0

Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Southpaw wrote: Highlanders Saders over 55.5 @ 5/6

How shit are the highlanders

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Brent Graham
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3 weeks 4 days ago #50 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Pacific Week 10, URC Week 16 + other rugby 25-27 April

Ulster v Sharks preview

Sharks -2.5 at 9/10

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