Super Rugby Week 14 and other rugby .

landrews77 wrote: Tyler Ardron has played a lot of games on lock for the chiefs, he is very mobile and fast and is also their line out jumper.Sean Whanui is a dangerous player with Stevenson at the back.This 2 combine very well.
Why do they shift Charlie to the midfield? Dangerous signs for the Sharks.That guy has an eye for a gap.
Marty is a Polard like type of player. Testing and Taking the line on until a weak place appear. Be carefull,
the whole rugby family gonna think Sharks will run away with it. Do not let the Bookies smile all the way to the Bank. Sharks -7,5 looks scary.Chiefs did it once on KINGS PARK. My Bet : Robert du Preez, Any time scorer.

Agree on Stevenson and Whainui. Two very good players.

Don't agree on Marty McKenzie. Crap flyhalf. Crap at ITM Cup level and definitely not up to SR standard.

SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

Pierrebal wrote: SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

Is the EP team out?Kings players involved yet?

Pierrebal wrote: SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

No price yet it seems for the Bulls v Lions

Pierrebal wrote: SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

Where did you find this handicaps?

WSB has them much higher

Pierrebal wrote: SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

Boland already out to -25.5 lol

Bookie Basher wrote:

Pierrebal wrote: SS Challenge handicaps are finally out - My only play last week was not the best as the Leopards fell behind early and never looked like staying close to the cap. WSB's caps are as follows:

FS v Sharks -6.5 (Free State has been quite good and if pressed I would take them on the minus)

Boland v EP -19.5 (I am all over this cap - EP have lost to WP, SWD, and Border so far and Boland themselves have been mighty impressive. Think the bookies have this completely wrong)

Pumas v Valke -20.5 (Pumas are really in form and should cover this cap)

Griquas v Griffons -16.5 (This is a tricky one - Griquas would usually be expected to cover the cap but have made loads of changes to their team)

SWD v WP +15.5 (SWD fell away last week against Boland at home as well. The game is fairly capped imo so would probably not get involved here).

Boland already out to -25.5 lol

Bookies has no idea what is going on in the SS Challenge

What's disconcerting is the fact that Pierrebal's fancies have ALL been shifted and less fancied not touched. Given the short time frame since he posted. I find It difficult to believe that enough people got on to shift the line. Would be sad if the likes of WSB rely on posts to shift the line for them.

A 6 point shift in 30 minutes. Either some real high rollers got involved or they are really monitoring the forum. I also think the other problem for the local bookies is that it is only them offering odds on the SS Challenge and they have to do their own research - most of their other prices can be benchmarked to the international bookies (where a lot of their pricing is from). Think that's why we also don't see total points etc.

Since the second round I place my bets then I write on the forum, its rather disappointing because I really enjoy getting some inputs and other views before placing a bet, but with the knee-jerk reactions from the bookies there is really no other choice than going this way.

Absolutely!
Always best to place your bet before you post!

Canes, Reds points line of 65.5 looks quite high to me. I see the Reds trying to bring the Canes down to their level after their humiliation last week.

Big golden play:

Blue Bulls to beat Golden Lions.

The Lions super rugby team has called up a couple of the SS Rugby challenge players and hence weakened the Golden Lions. Blue Bulls are in good form and should take it comfortably.

shaft wrote: Canes, Reds points line of 65.5 looks quite high to me. I see the Reds trying to bring the Canes down to their level after their humiliation last week.

Agree with this and took some unders.

Big bad Brad Thorn would've been fuming after last weeks thrashing, I can see a different Reds team pitching up today.

Have had modest play at Reds +20 @ 3.30 also

Glasgow v Scarlets:

Think we might see an eager and higher scoring first half tonight.
Over 20.5 points first half
first try before 15min30sec

I think the Reds are in for a tough day at the office, the Canes defense is fantastic and they have only conceded more than 16 points at home against the Lions, Saders and Sharks. The Reds dont have the same firepower so following Hanricks twitter tip on Reds Under 16.5 points 0.96/1 at GG

Might take a stab at Canes to win to NIL at 14/1

Reds under 2.5 tries @1.73 is a cracker to me

This Hurricanes game's a bit difficult to bet on. I can't help having the feeling that the Hurricanes will go into this one overconfident and that the Reds will be a different team because of last week's humiliation. The Hurricanes should destroy the Reds but I just don't know.

Will rather wait for the live betting on this one.

The Reds have struggled in the second half so far this year. If they start well then I'll grab the Hurricanes on the handicap during the game.

First stoppage try @25/1

Any chance the Canes had of covering the handicap went with Lam's over confident f@ck up....

Took Hurricanes - 17.5 during the game. Could have gotten better but was too slow.

If you made ammo on that match then I truly salute you! WOW.

Think we need to factor in a new element to Superugby ... the BounceBack!

Reds get smashed against the Sunwolves - cover vs Canes by 24 points!
Landers get drilled 38-12 against the Sharks - cover vs Lions next up by 6.
Rebels lose 55-10 against Saders - follow up with win against Brumbies - cover cap by 10 points
Reds lose 36-12 to Chiefs in Round 10 - follow up with WIN against Lions
Sharks lose 40-10 at home against Bulls in Round 9 - follow up with win and cover against Stormers in Round 10.
Jags lose 40-14 to Saders in Round 8 - follow up with WIN against Rebels
Rebels smash Sharks 46-14 in Round 6 - Sharks beat Blues 63-40 in NZ in Round 7

The #BounceBack is real!

RCT v LOU

Over 1.5 tries HT @1.53
Over 1.5 tries HT RCT @2.20

A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

bradie82 wrote: A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

any thoughts on Glasgow v Scarlets

I have great faith in Robbie Fleck's inability to understand the fine game of rugby union . A punt and a beer for me

Wolves +8.5 @ 12/10
and a beer on
Wolves on the board @ 3/1

Stoossy wrote:

bradie82 wrote: A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

any thoughts on Glasgow v Scarlets

Same as BG - over 42.5 @1.91 on bet365 seems the right move despite the H2H
Weather is great all over the UK, 2 attacking teams - the over tries HT would have been my move as per other games but the 2.5 cut does not attract me

Going over 42.5 on the Glasgow/Scarlets match as well....feel these two have tries in them....just got a feeling that it'll be open enough with these two..

bradie82 wrote: RCT v LOU

Over 1.5 tries HT @1.53
Over 1.5 tries HT RCT @2.20

Crap game and rubbish ashton

can't wait for Glasgow-Scarlets staying under after a promising first half, and 2nd half start.

E: nailed it, horror luck for over 42.5 backers, was far away myself with over 44 at Pinnacle

Thick rugby player alert.....kicker for Glasgow..Finn Russell...how in God's name could you miss that...ffs....over 42.5 points...but no....you brain dead moron had to ruin what could have been a decent night....in shock...

Brent Graham wrote: I am not sure it was Finn? Thought it was a sub

It doesn't matter really who it was...it was a gimmie.....no excuses....awful stuff

On the stormers here. Dont think sunwolves will win another game this year and if they loose this one it shoyld be by more than 10. Stormers will get that elusive away victory in a game that is also texhinically away for the sunwolves to.

I'm also on the Stormers today. Similar today as yesterday I think the Sunwolves will keep it close, then around halftime I'll bet on the Stormers.

Actually, it's so hot there that I went with under 8.5 tries. It's still available for those interested.

bradie82 wrote: A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

Adding the over 5.5 tries game as the cut team are not interesting

It is pouring down here in Auckland will be wet, cold and ugly.

Wow the Stormers are bad.

Hayden Parker !!!!!!!! What a player.

The Vann wrote: I have great faith in Robbie Fleck's inability to understand the fine game of rugby union . A punt and a beer for me

Wolves +8.5 @ 12/10
and a beer on
Wolves on the board @ 3/1

(B) (B) (B)
I'm on a gambling sabbatical but nicely done Vann!

Awesome stuff from the sunwolves.

The weather can be the great evener and it is horrible here. Im gonna have a go at the Blues 1-12 just a small strike but if the streak is to break everything needs to be in their favor. Weather, home ground, players returning from injury all in the blues favor. And I don't know what to make of a team that gives up 30 points in 30 minutes at home to the warratahs they certainly cant be firing on all cylinders.

My main interest for weekend is Sharks and Brumbies, but for an interest @ Eden Park as can only watch first half:

1st tryscorers -
Codie Taylor @ 16/1
A Ioane @ 20/1

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote: A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

Adding the over 5.5 tries game as the cut team are not interesting

40 min and the job is done (B)
After last night bad beat @ Glasgow and the non game from RCT, good to be back in business

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote: A bit like last week in the Blues v Canes game - I will go with over on the Blues Saders game as the cut is low in my opinion

Over 2.5 tries HT @1.60

Might add more later on the try team but not available on all bookies yet

Adding the over 5.5 tries game as the cut team are not interesting

40 min and the job is done (B)
After last night bad beat @ Glasgow and the non game from RCT, good to be back in business

top stuff Bradie! (B)

Highlanders v waratahs, Penalty converted before 19min 30 @1.86

WSB no longer offering time of first penalty converted because they dont agree with the quotes offered. Too lazy to price up themselves so copy and paste from bet365....Absolute rubbish!

Waratahs +8.5 @ 8/11 main bet
Folau 1st try 11/1 smaller interest

kompos wrote:

mackem wrote: Many thanks to Oracle for his weekend plays.

Friday's preview here , Saturday's preview here

At last – some lateral thinking by a punter.
It is obvious that, week after week, the set handicaps by bookies are way out.
Taking the odds against on the handicap for the side you fancy is a no brainer!
But why still take 88/100 on the first game?
Pick a side and take the 12/10 or better!

Thank you @Kompos, the thinking here was to get the lowest minus available at a price as close to 9/10 as possible