URC Week 4, Gallagher Prem Week 4, NPC Semi's + other rugby

The newsletter bet Sharks +21.5 went belly up (I really just need to forget the Sharks exist) but overall I had a decent weekend finishing slightly ahead of the books. 

After a poor Friday where the Edinburgh board bet found a way to lose and the Scarlets v Stormers overs was never a runner I landed overs at Benetton, the winning margin at Ospreys at 3/1, Dragons unders, Cardiff 1-12 at 6/4 and Ulster win at 31/20 (just missing the HT/FT which I had a go at at almost 8/1) 

On we roll and the URC week 4 blog is up 

Here are my projected caps Friday, 17 October 2025

• Edinburgh -12.5 v Benetton - Watch for: Benetton may rotate after 2 home wins 
• Connacht +3.5 v Bulls
• Dragons +5.5 v Cardiff

Saturday, 18 October 2025

• Lions -9.5 v Scarlets 
• Sharks -7.5 v Ulster
• Leinster -15.5 v Munster
• Zebre +6.5 v Stormers
• Ospreys +4.5 v Glasgow

Let me know where you think I am out 

There is also Gallagher Prem, NPC semi's and Top 14

Have a great week everyone 

 

Don't know if I'm just completely missing the plot, but out by quite a few...on quite a few  :

Friday, 17 October 2025

• Edinburgh -6.5 v Benetton
• Connacht -3.5 v Bulls
• Dragons +12.5 v Cardiff

Saturday, 18 October 2025

• Lions -14.5 v Scarlets 
• Sharks -3.5 v Ulster
• Leinster -10.5 v Munster
• Zebre +10.5 v Stormers
• Ospreys +6.5 v Glasgow

Cheers Wager Warlock, 

I find these games tough to handicap, especially early in the comp and it will be interesting to see what the bookies come up with 

One of us should see some early value! 

Here are the early NPC semi's handicaps 

Bay of Plenty v Otago
Handicap: Bay of Plenty -1.5

Canterbury v Hawke's Bay
Handicap: Canterbury -5.5

Blog updated with handicap comparison and an early bet 

Edinburgh -7.5 at 0.88/1 

Here are the early caps 

• Edinburgh -7.5 v Benetton
• Dragons +6.5 v Cardiff
• Connacht +5.5 v Bulls
• Lions -10.5 v Scarlets
• Sharks -10.5 v Ulster
• Leinster -15.5 v Munster
• Zebre +12.5 v Stormers
• Ospreys +3.5 v Glasgow

Blog updated with handicap movement 

Not a lot to report with the Bulls in from -5.5 to -2.5 the big mover 

Here are some of the other handicaps for the weekends rugby 

Top 14 – Handicaps
Saturday, 18 October
Aviron Bayonne v ASM Clermont Auvergne — Bayonne -7.5
Stade Rochelais v US Montalbanaise — La Rochelle -39.5
Castres Olympique v Stade Français Paris — Castres -6.5
Montpellier Hérault Rugby v Lyon OU — Montpellier -9.5
USA Perpignan v Union Bordeaux Bègles — Bordeaux -8.5
Section Paloise v Stade Toulousain — Toulouse -4.5

Sunday, 19 October
RC Toulonnais v Racing 92 — Toulon -10.5

English Premiership – Handicaps
Friday, 17 October
Gloucester Rugby v Bristol Bears — Gloucester -5.5
Newcastle Falcons v Northampton Saints — Northampton -14.5

Saturday, 18 October
Leicester Tigers v Bath Rugby — Bath -4.5
Saracens v Sale Sharks — Saracens -8.5

Sunday, 19 October
Exeter Chiefs v Harlequins — Exeter -3.5

NPC Semi-Finals – Handicaps
Friday, 17 October
Otago v Bay of Plenty — Otago -0.5

Saturday, 18 October
Canterbury v Hawke’s Bay — Canterbury -6.5

 

Can someone do me a favour please.....

I am not able to access williamhill uk

I need their current odds on the 2 internationals coming up

Japan v Aussie and Ireland v nz......need the 3 way odds on both games please (eg Japan to win, the draw, and Aussie to win)

Hi Sportsbettor, 

Turns out I also can't access William Hill - we will need someone in the UK to grab it 

Just my early Edinburgh minus down so far and I see the line has moved closer to where I had it 

Will have some bets up early and newsletter should be set this morning then off for our annual extended family weekend away in the bush - will still watch plenty of rugby 

URC Blog Updated with an update in Edinburgh game and a bet in Dragons match 

Dragons +8.5 at 9/10 

Over 6.5 tries Connacht v Bulls at 10/11 

Leinster -15.5 at 0.92/1 

Thats me until later today, newsletter should be out this evening sent from the patio of a lodge in the bush 

 

I had a look there and I couldn’t see any odds for any international games 

I am in Ireland not the UK if that makes a difference 

TheAdmiral wrote:

 

I had a look there and I couldn’t see any odds for any international games 

I am in Ireland not the UK if that makes a difference 



Thanks Admiral!

Looks like they don't have those games yet then. Hope your weekend goes well.
 

Pau +5.5 ha @1.80 2u

No strong insider info on this, just value in the home side. Match between the two most in-form teams of the competition, may sound weird but I'd put Pau as slightly favourites. Toulouse with some rotation (Brennan, Flament, Willis, Ntamack, Ramos rest) but welcoming back Mallia, Chocobares, Kinghorn, Meafou so strong team. 

Well, anything can happen with the Dregs but they do raise their game when the Cardiff boys take the 10 mile trip East.

So they are sure to provide a 'warm' welcome and I fancy them to keep it close - if they can keep 15 men on the pitch.

Dregs +7.5.

I had a 3 unit bet on the bulls, @ -1,5
Weeping 

Bayonne o31.5 points @1.83 2u

Strong strong Bayonne team, after last week rotation they go with powerful starting 15 plus the bench. Clermont with a big injury list in the backline (Moala, Delguy, Simone, Fouyssac, Hamdaoui, Sowakula, Raka, Lanen) and also resting Plummer (their top player this season). Not a bad starting lineup but the bench is unexperienced (except the first row). Line for me should be in the mid 30´s so value in the over.

Zebre under 16.5 @1.87

URC Blog updated 

Lions game - rain about and hold fire for now, it won't take much to get me on the overs 

Sharks -11.5 9/10 
Over 50.5 Zebre v Stormers 9/10 
Over 47.5 Ospreys v Glasgow 9.10 

A good start to the weekend with my main play Edi minus trotting up and the newsletter acca also landed