URC Week 5, Gallagher Prem Week 5, NPC Final + other rugby

I was in the bush this weekend and never got to watch much rugby which looking at the Leinster and Sharks results was perhaps just as well. 

The early strike on Edinburgh -7.5 landed with ease as they ran out 43–0 winners over Benetton. That strong start carried through Friday night with Connacht v Bulls tries and Dragons on the plus both delivering, and the newsletter acca also clicking (sorry about the Cardiff +7.5 typo when it should have been Dragons).Saturday was poor, Glasgow overs were a solid winner, but Leinster, Sharks, Zebre overs and a late play on Lions points didn’t go my way.

All told it ended four up, four down on the main plays but overall I found a way to finish down. .We move on to Week 5, and here are my handicap projections:

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Glasgow -6.5 v Bulls

Saturday, 25 October 2025

• Lions +5.5 v Ulster
• Sharks -17.5 v Scarlets
• Leinster -30.5 v Zebre
• Benetton +6.5 v Stormers
• Dragons +6.5 v Ospreys
• Munster -10.5 v Connacht
• Cardiff -3.5 v Edinburgh
  
  There is also the NPC final, Gallagher Prem, top 14 and Japan and Australia get the international year end season going 

Thanks Brent. We get up and go again. Here's my caps.

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Glasgow -7.5 v Bulls (Bulls sending their Boks back to SA for the end of year tour)

Saturday, 25 October 2025

• Lions +4.5 v Ulster
• Sharks -14.5 v Scarlets
• Leinster -32.5 v Zebre (My condolences to Zebre, this one's gonna hurt)
• Benetton +14.5 v Stormers (Stormers team news will be vital here)
• Dragons +6.5 v Ospreys
• Munster -12.5 v Connacht
• Cardiff -3.5 v Edinburgh

All in all fairly aligned, apart from the Sharks and Stormers games
 

URC Blog updated with comparison of projections v current lines 

Wager Warlock I asked Chat GPT to compare both of ours with Betxchanges 

Friday, 24 October 2025

• Glasgow v Bulls
  • You: Glasgow -6.5
  • WW: Glasgow -7.5
  • Bookies: Glasgow -10.5
  • 📌 Both you and WW are shorter than the market – suggesting some value on the Bulls if you believe Glasgow are being overrated.

Saturday, 25 October 2025

• Lions v Ulster
  • You: Lions +5.5
  • WW: Lions +4.5
  • Bookies: Lions +1.5
  • 📌 Market has moved strongly towards Lions; you and WW are both higher on Ulster.
• Sharks v Scarlets
  • You: Sharks -17.5
  • WW: Sharks -14.5
  • Bookies: Sharks -16.5
  • 📌 All three are in the same ballpark; you’re most bullish on Sharks, WW least.
• Leinster v Zebre
  • You: Leinster -30.5
  • WW: Leinster -32.5
  • Bookies: Leinster -28.5
  • 📌 Both you and WW rate Leinster stronger than the market, WW even more so.
• Benetton v Stormers
  • You: Benetton +6.5
  • WW: Benetton +14.5
  • Bookies: Benetton +4.5
  • 📌 Major split: you’re quite close to bookies, WW is far heavier on Stormers. Big 10-point gap between you and WW here.
• Dragons v Ospreys
  • You: Dragons +6.5
  • WW: Dragons +6.5
  • Bookies: Dragons +6.5
  • 📌 Full agreement across the board.
• Munster v Connacht
  • You: Munster -10.5
  • WW: Munster -12.5
  • Bookies: Munster -9.5
  • 📌 All three close, with WW highest on Munster.
• Cardiff v Edinburgh
  • You: Cardiff -3.5
  • WW: Cardiff -3.5
  • Bookies: Cardiff -3.5
  • 📌 Full agreement here as well.

 

Valence Romans -8.5 ha @1.90 2u

Big rotation expected by Agen (Guión, Socino, Burin, Macharashvili, Olmstead, Madigan, Fineanganofo, Lebian, Willis, Garrigues, Martins not in the group), not 100% but looks like Agen will be focused in the next match of the block, only 2u because of it. If true, line should be in the high 10's.

Minimal movement in the URC, Zebre in from -28.5 to -26.5 and Munster from -9.5 to -7.5 

Here are some caps on the other major leagues 

Rugby Betting Handicaps – Weekend 24/25/26 October English Premiership

• Northampton Saints -3.5 v Saracens
• Harlequins -20.5 v Newcastle
• Exeter Chiefs -13.5 v Gloucester
• Bath -15.5 v Bristol
• Leicester Tigers -8.5 v Sale

 NPC Final

• Canterbury -4.5 v Otago

 Top 14

• Lyon -4.5 v La Rochelle
• Clermont -13.5 v Castres
• Montauban -1.5 v Perpignan
• Stade Français -5.5 v Montpellier
• Racing 92 -10.5 v Pau
• Bordeaux -16.5 v Bayonne
• Toulouse -20.5 v Toulon

bulls +10.5 @ 9/10 (hollywood)

line starting to move in to +7 with some firms so will take this while still available.

Clermont -13.5 ha @1.90 2u

Some important returns for Clermont (Lanen, Ratuva, Sowakula, Delguy and Plummer at 10) while Castres with some rotation (Colonna, Zarantonello, Collier, Nakarawa, Maravat, Delaporte, Staniforth, Babillot, Ardron, Arata, Goodhue, Hulleu, Ambadiang and Chabouni rested or injured). Line to me in the low 20´s with this news so value in the home side.

The Handicap live at 21h00 

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pablo wrote:

Clermont -13.5 ha @1.90 2u

Some important returns for Clermont (Lanen, Ratuva, Sowakula, Delguy and Plummer at 10) while Castres with some rotation (Colonna, Zarantonello, Collier, Nakarawa, Maravat, Delaporte, Staniforth, Babillot, Ardron, Arata, Goodhue, Hulleu, Ambadiang and Chabouni rested or injured). Line to me in the low 20´s with this news so value in the home side.

With you Pablo, I'm expecting a hige response from Clermont this weekend .
 

Tomorrow night the Saints v Sarries should be a great watch . Conditions should be dry but cold . I really like Sarries here and have managed some plus 4.5 on teh cap. 

As above I'm with Clermont on the best minus still on offer . 

Small nibble on Bulls plus 7.5 as I've missed the boat .



 

Valence line from -8.5 to -21.5 closing odds, one of the most valuable bets of the season. 

13th red card to Valence, this is a joke. Really, again and again no luck for me this season.

URC Blog updated with 1st bet 

Look away now if you do not want to witness another Sharks play 

Sharks -18.5 at 0.92/1 

Also added 

Glasgow -8.5 at 0.93/1 

Valence delivered yesterday in some fashion.

Benetton +3.5 @1.85 2u

Stormers without SFM and Benetton fresh from rotation last week, I expect a strong team. With this conditions I'd put Benetton as slightly favourites, tough team to beat in Monigo.

PD: I'm also in Glasgow camp with -9.5 ha @1.85 2u since Monday, very strong lineup but I'm not as confident as my other bets.

Southpaw wrote:

bulls +10.5 @ 9/10 (hollywood)

line starting to move in to +7 with some firms so will take this while still available.

I've got cold feet as there's a rumour Jan Serfontein could be an injury withdrawal. I've cancelled out stake with Glasgow -8 @ 20/21, so a small middle position. A home win by 9 or 10 would be lovely.

EXETER -13 @ 10/11

Bet of the weekend for me. Quins couldn't get a point last week, Chiefs are being heavily underrated by bookies, the 2 Aussie internationals added so much in 1 game, both were their best forwards and backline players in rugby champs, best signings by a Premiership team of this season.

Gloucester leak points, Chiefs could hurt them tomorrow if on it from the start. 2nd worse defence of competition vs best defence. Cap should be 20.

Southpaw wrote:

EXETER -13 @ 10/11

Bet of the weekend for me. Quins couldn't get a point last week, Chiefs are being heavily underrated by bookies, the 2 Aussie internationals added so much in 1 game, both were their best forwards and backline players in rugby champs, best signings by a Premiership team of this season.

Gloucester leak points, Chiefs could hurt them tomorrow if on it from the start. 2nd worse defence of competition vs best defence. Cap should be 20.

Strongly agree here, I have Exeter as 23 points favourites so big value in the -13.5, I took -12.5 @1.80 2u
 

No rain in Glasgow so over 48.5 :-o

Jameson wrote:

No rain in Glasgow so over 48.5 :-o

Conditions good but awful error strewn game - great ......
 

Canterbury v Otago.

Also have Canterbury +12.5 @ 1.14 in a lot of multis as dont see that losing.


-Canterbury to be leading at halftime and fulltime, 2.20, 1.5 units

-Red card, yes, 8.00, 1 unit