REDSThe Reds and the Brumbies will contest the final of Super Rugby Australia in Brisbane on Saturday, a repeat of last season's final but this time the Reds start as the bookmakers favourites.

 

 

 

 

Reds v Brumbies, Saturday 8th May, Brisbane, KO 11:45 (South African time)

 

Referee: Nic Berry
Assistant referees: Damon Murphy, Amy Perrett
TMO: James Leckie

 

Weather Forecast – Brisbane

 

Reds:

 

The Reds were resting last week but no doubt keeping a close eye on the Brumbies v Force play off. The Queenslanders almost went through the regular season

with a 100% record but they were beaten in Round 10 by the Force, by which time they were already assured of hosting this final.

 

As it played out the 2 crunch games were the match ups with the Brumbies and although the Reds won both of those meetings there was very little in it. In Canberra the Reds staged a late rally to come out on top 40-38 and the return at Suncorp as recently as Round 8 ended 24-22 in their favour.

 

The Reds were also run reasonably close by the Force and Rebels in home games whilst their other matches were one sided affairs.

 

Reds Fixtures & Results: R1 Waratahs (h) won 41-7, R2 Rebels (h) won 23-21, R3 bye, R4 Brumbies (a) won 40-38, R5 Force (h) won 26-19, R6 Waratahs (a) won 46-14, R7 Rebels (a) won 44-19, R8 Brumbies (h) won 24-22, R9 bye, R10 Force (a) lost 30-27

 

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Brumbies:

 

The Brumbies won last week's play off at home to the Force 21-9, just shy of the margin reflected in the early handicap. Although they were 12-3 up at half time the win was only secured with 2 late penalties and the Force had a 20 minute spell with 14 men.

 

Aside from the 2 defeats to the Reds the Brumbies were foot perfect in their other matches. They finished 4 points shy of the Reds in the standings and their overall points difference was 1 superior to the Queenslanders.

 

Four of 5 meetings between these sides in Super Rugby Australia have been settled by margins of between 2 and 5 points.

 

Last season's final was staged in Canberra and the Brumbies came out on top 28-23

 

Brumbies Fixtures & Results: R1 Force (a) won 27-11, R2 Waratahs (h) won 61-10, R3 Rebels (h) won 27-24, R4 Reds (h) lost 40-38, R5 bye, R6 Force (h) won 42-14, R7 Waratahs (a) won 24-22, R8 Reds (a) lost 24-22, R9 Rebels (a) won 26-20, R10 bye, Play Off Force (h) won 21-9

 

Team News

 

Reds: 15 Bryce Hegarty, 14 Jordan Petaia, 13 Josh Flook, 12 Hamish Stewart, 11 Jock Campbell, 10 James O’Connor (captain), 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Harry Wilson, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Angus Scott-Young, 5 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 4 Ryan Smith, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 1 Feao Fotuaika.

Replacements: 16 Alex Mafi, 17 Dane Zander, 18 Zane Nonggorr, 19 Seru Uru, 20 Liam Wright, 21 Kalani Thomas, 22 Isaac Henry, 23 Filipo Daugunu

 

Brumbies: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andy Muirhead, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Irae Simone, 11 Tom Wright, 10 Noah Lolesio, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Rory Scott, 6 Nick Frost, 5 Cadeyrn Neville, 4 Darcy Swain, 3 Allan Alaalatoa (captain), 2 Lachlan Lonergan, 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Folau Fainga’a, 17 Harry Lloyd, 18 Tom Ross, 19 Henry Stowers, 0 Luke Reimer, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 Reesjan Pasitoa, 23 Mack Hansen

 

Recent Head to Head (any venue)

 

2021 SRAU Brisbane Reds 24-22 Brumbies (Tries 2-3)

2021 SRAU Canberra Brumbies 38-40 Reds (Tries 5-4)

2020 SRAU Canberra Brumbies 28-23 Reds (Tries 3-2) (Final)

2020 SRAU Brisbane Reds 26-7 Brumbies (Tries 3-1)

2020 SRAU Canberra Brumbies 22-20 Reds (Tries 3-2)

2020 Canberra Brumbies 27-24 Reds (Tries 4-3)

2019 Canberra Brumbies 40-27 Reds (Tries 6-3)

2019 Brisbane Reds 36-14 Brumbies (Tries 5-2)

2018 Canberra Brumbies 45-21 Reds (Tries 7-2)

2018 Brisbane Reds 18-10 Brumbies (Tries 0-2)

2017 Brisbane Reds 16-15 Brumbies (Tries 1-2)

2017 Canberra Brumbies 43-10 Reds (Tries 6-1)

 

 

The Betting,

 

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Handicap, 80 minutes

 

Reds -4.5 points at 9/10

Brumbies +4.5 points at 9/10

 

To lift the trophy Reds 11/20 Brumbies 13/10

 

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

 

Betting Angle

 

I capped this game at Reds -5.5 and the handicap has been stable at -4.5 all week. I like the Reds though as have not been impressed by the Brumbies in the 2nd half of the season and I think they can get out in front and ultimatly win well. 

 

The Total Points line is 47.5 and I am leaning unders here although will wait till just before kickoff to decide whether to get involved and will post any additional bets iin our rugby forum thread .

 

Bet: 5 units Reds -4.5 at 10/11 at Sportingbet 

 

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

 

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