The Autumn Nations Cup playoff matches take place this weekend and we have a look at the fixtures from a betting angle.
At the time of writing there was no betting on the Georgia v Fiji match, but I believe the game is going ahead and if so it should be an interesting contrast of style with Georgia looking to slow the game down to suit their pack while Fiji have a backline packed with talent.
IRELAND v SCOTLAND – Click here to bet
Ireland made heavy weather of getting past Georgia on Sunday and it is fair to say that Irish fans are concerned about the team at the moment. They have selected a strong line-up here and they will start favourites. Prior to the Georgia game Ireland had beaten Wales 32-9 in Round 1 and then lost 18-7 to England at Twickenham.
Scotland finished runners-up to France in their pool and the decisive game was against the French at home where they lost by 7 points. In Week 1 they played Italy winning 28-17 on the road.
Ireland have won their last 6 matches against Scotland at home and 4 of those 6 matches have been by winning margins of 10 points or more.
BETTING
Ireland 2/7
Draw 25/1
Scotland 33/10
Handicap: Ireland (-9.5) at 9/10, Scotland (+9.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Scotland (+9.5) at 9/10
Scotland came very close to beating Ireland in Dublin in their last encounter back in February of this year going down by 7 points in the end and I do feel this current Ireland side is a bit off the pace. A home win is likely, but I am backing Scotland to beat the cap.
WALES v ITALY – Click here to bet
Wales lost by 11 points to England at home last week and they also went down to Ireland in Dublin by 23 points, results that ensured they finished 3rd on the table above Georgia who they beat 18-0.
Italy were disappointing last week losing by 31 points to a French team that was far from full strength. Their fixture against Fiji was cancelled and the only other match was an 11 point defeat to Scotland at home.
Italy have never beaten Wales on the road with a draw back in 2006 their best result. The sides met in the Six Nations in Wales in February with Wales winning 42-0 and the last 3 wins for Wales at home against Italy would have seen them comfortably beat the current handicap.
BETTING
Wales 1/9
Draw 40/1
Italy 15/2
Handicap: Wales (-16.5) at 9/10, Italy (+16.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Italy (+16.5) at 9/10
I am going against recent history here, but I just can’t back this Wales side who haven't impressed me all Tournament. Italy are capable of making this into a scrappy affair and that should be enough to keep them within the cap.
ENGLAND v FRANCE – Click here to bet
I was very excited at the prospect of this fixture until I realised that France were not going to be fielding their strongest side due to arrangements made with the Top 14 French League.
England have had few problems in seeing off Ireland, Wales and Georgia although against Ireland and Wales they probably felt they should have won by more.
France beat Scotland away and then saw off Italy at home last week with very much a second string side in play.
BETTING
England 1/9
Draw 40/1
France 15/2
Handicap: England (-16.5) at 9/10, France (+16.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, England (-16.5) at 9/10
I am expecting a big performance from England as they look to punish France for not bringing a full strength squad. For what it is worth, England have won the last 7 in a row at home against France and in February beat them 44-8 at Twickenham.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
