The two top teams in Australia will contest the Super Rugby final on Saturday in Brisbane when the Reds host the Brumbies and we take a look at the game from a betting angle.
The Reds reeled off 7 successive victories before seeing their unbeaten run ended away at the Force last week when they lost 30-27. They started the game 9 point favourites and led early, only for the Force to claw their way back into the match and eventually win it. Although the Reds fielded a fairly strong team it would be fair to say that they knew their job was done and that a final spot was waiting so I wouldn’t read too much into that result.
Looking at matches they have played in Brisbane this season, they beat the Waratahs by 34, The Rebels by 2, the Force by 7 and the Brumbies by 2 and both matches against the Brumbies this season has seen the Reds come from behind to claim a 2 point win.
The Brumbies overcame some stern resistance from the Force last week to win the playoff 21-9 in Canberra. They were coming off a bye and prior to that they had beaten the Rebels by 6 points on the road. Looking at the rest of their away form they beat the Force by 16, the Waratahs by 2 and lost to the Reds by 2 points.
BETTING – Click here to bet
Reds 6/10
Draw 25/1
Brumbies 16/10
Handicap: Reds (-4.5) at 9/10, Brumbies (+4.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Half-time / Full-time, Reds / Reds at even money
The Reds have played some excellent rugby this season and as mentioned in the preview I am going to ignore the loss to the Force. They will be fired up for this one and although the Brumbies have long been the dominate Australian team, I think the Reds are going to win a deserved title here and more often than not they are quickly out of the blocks so backing them to lead at half-time and win the match looks a decent bet.
Additional Bet: Winning Margin, Reds under 12.5 points at 15/10
Yes, I think the Reds will win, but I am not convinced they are going to run away with the match and I expect that there will be a single figure margin come the final whistle. This bet gives us a couple of points leeway and when you consider in the 5 Super Rugby Au matches these sides have played against each other there only once has been 5 points that looked decent value.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
