Round 4 of the Rugby Championship takes place this weekend with a double header in Brisbane and we take a look at both games from a betting angle.
Let’s start with a quick look at the Outright Betting with New Zealand now unbackable at 1/10 with South Africa 6/1 and you can get 18/1 Australia and 500/1 Argentina.
Click here for Outright Betting of the Rugby Championship
AUSTRALIA v SOUTH AFRICA
Australia pulled off a stunning 28-26 victory over the Boks last week. The match was won in the final minute with Quade Cooper kicking a penalty. It was penalty kicks which cost the Boks, with Pollard having an off day with the boot and for that reason Australia have been priced as underdogs again this week. Prior to the Bok Test the Wallabies had played 3 tests in a row against the All Blacks, losing by 8 points in the Bledisloe one, but then getting badly beaten in the other two games, although the 17 point loss in Perth was just enough to beat the handicap.
The Boks had opened their Rugby Championship campaign with 20 point and 19 point victories over Argentina in Port Elizabeth. They came into last week’s fixture against Australia as double digit favourites, but turned in their worst performance in some time.
TEAMS
Australia: 15 Tom Banks, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 13 Len Ikitau, 12 Samu Kerevi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Nic White, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Lachlan Swinton, 5 Matt Philip, 4 Izack Rodda, 3 Taniela Tupou, 2 Folau Fainga’a, 1 James Slipper.
Replacements: 16 Feleti Kaitu’u, 17 Angus Bell, 18 Tom Robertson, 19 Darcy Swain, 20 Pete Samu, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Reece Hodge, 23 Jordan Petaia
South Africa: 15 Willie le Roux, 14 Sibusiso Nkosi, 13 Lukhanyo Am, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 10 Handré Pollard, 9 Francois de Klerk, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Mostert, 6 Siyamthanda Kolisi (captain), 5 Marvin Orie, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Mbongeni Mbonambi, 1 Trevor Nyakane.
Replacements: 16 Malcolm Marx, 17 Steven Kitshoff, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Marco van Staden, 20 Albertus Smith, 21 Jasper Wiese, 22 Herschel Jantjies, 23 Damian Willemse
BETTING – Click here to bet
Australia 28/10
Draw 28/1
South Africa 1/3
Handicap: Australia (+8.5) at 9/10, South Africa (-8.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Australia (+8.5) at 9/10
I expect improvement from the Boks, but I think Australia would have taken a lot out of that victory last week and I don’t think this is just going to be a case of the Boks putting them away. We should get a cracking match and while I am leaning towards a Bok win I think that the Aussies can keep it tight.
ARGENTINA v NEW ZEALAND
Argentina had plenty of supporters on the handicap last week which started at 23.5 points, however New Zealand never let them into the game and ran out comfortable 39-0 winners.
That performance from Argentina came on the back of back-to-back defeats against South Africa away and in the 1st Test in particular they were fancied by punters to cover the handicap, something they failed to do.
The All Blacks beat the Wallabies in 3 successive Test matches, but for me last week’s performance against Argentina was the most impressive. They dominated the game virtually from start to finish and their opponents never really looked like scoring a point. Coach Foster has made 11 changes to the team, but the amazing thing about New Zealand rugby is that there is still no obvious weaknesses.
TEAMS
Argentina: 15 Juan Cruz Mallia, 14 Santiago Cordero, 13 Lucio Cinti, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 11 Emiliano Boffelli, 10 Santiago Carreras, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 8 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 6 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 5 Tomas Lavanini, 4 Matias Alemanno, 3 Santiago Medrano, 2 Julian Montoya (captain), 1 Facundo Gigena.
Replacements: 16 Santiago Socino, 17 Carlos Muzzio, 18 Enrique Pieretto, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Tomas Lezana, 21 Gonzalo Garcia, 22 Domingo Miotti, 23 Matias Moroni
New Zealand: 15 Jordie Barrett, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Quinn Tupaea, 11 George Bridge, 10 Damien McKenzie, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Hoskins Sotutu, 7 Ardie Savea (captain), 6 Ethan Blackadder, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Joe Moody.
Replacements: 16 Codie Taylor, 17 George Bower, 18 Ofa Tuungafasi, 19 Scott Barrett, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Beauden Barrett, 23 Braydon Ennor
BETTING – Click here to bet
Argentina 16/1
Draw 80/1
New Zealand 1/25
Handicap: Argentina (+26.5) at 9/10, New Zealand (-26.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Argentina (+26.5) at 9/10
Argentina were coming out of quarantine last week and that might have explained the lack lustre performance, but they certainly seem to lack the passion of some of the Argentine sides we have seen in the past. I am expecting them to come out firing for this one though and that with the team New Zealand selected the defence may be a bit easier to breach.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
