The Super Rugby Australia competition is fast approaching the business end and we take a look at both of this weekend’s matches from a betting angle.
Let’s start with a look at the Outright Betting which has a much more open feel to it in light of recent results and in particular the last weeks 18 point win for the Rebels over Tournament favourites, the Brumbies.
The Brumbies have drifted to 7/10 with the Rebels now 28/10 second favourites, the Reds and the Waratahs are 6/1 and 9/1 respectively.
Click here for Outright Betting, previous week’s prices in brackets
Brumbies 7/10 (4/7)
Rebels 28/10 (9/2)
Reds 6/1 (33/10)
Waratahs 9/1 (20/1)
Western Force 500/1 (350/1)
WESTERN FORCE v WARATAHS – Click here to bet
While a home game for the Force’s match will take place at the Cbus Super Stadium on the Gold Coast on Friday. The Force have lost all 4 matches in this competition although they have beaten the handicap in 3 of those 4 games. Their last outing was a heart breaking 20-25 Super Time defeat to the Rebels after the teams had finished locked at 20-20 in regulation time. Prior to that though they were hammered 24-0 by the Brumbies in wet conditions.
The Waratahs turned in comfortably their best performance of the season last week when they started the underdogs, but hammered the Reds 45-12 in Sydney. It put them back with an outside shot of making the finals and they will want an improvement from their opening game against the Force when they had to come from behind to win 23-14.
BETTING
Western Force 3/1
Draw 28/1
Waratahs 3/10
Handicap: Western Force (+8.5) at 9/10, Waratahs (-8.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Waratahs (-8.5) at 9/10
I am not sure where that performance from the Waratahs came from last week, but it did impress me and while the Force can give them some problems in the early stages, I can’t see anything but a comfortable Waratahs win most likely by a double figure margin.
REDS v REBELS – Click here to bet
The Reds will be happy to be back in Brisbane after taking a 33 point pounding at the hands of the Waratahs last week. They now face a Rebels side that drew 18-18 after Super Time when they last met on neutral ground in Week 2. Fancied by many for a run at the Title at the beginning of the season the Reds have slipped to 6/1 in the Outright Betting and cannot afford a defeat here.
The Rebels turned in their best performance of the season last week beating the Brumbies by 18 points and that at a neutral ground. They previously edged the Force in Super Time, but 3 weeks ago dished out a hiding to the Waratahs winning by 19 and they have firmed into second favourites at 28/10.
BETTING
Reds 8/10
Draw 25/1
Rebels 23/20
Handicap: Reds (-1.5) at 9/10, Rebels (+1.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Rebels win at 23/20
The Reds are a different side at home, but there was something about the way they got hammered last week by the Waratahs that had me thinking this side is going to struggle from here on end to the end of the Tournament. The Rebels on the other hand appear to be peaking and although a bit inconsistent have delivered some impressive performances of late. I am looking for the away team to secure the win here.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
