We sadly said farewell to New Zealand Aotearoa, but still have some Super Rugby to look forward to this weekend with Round 8 of the Australian version. We take a look at the two games taking place over Friday and Saturday from a betting angle.
As usual let’s update the outright betting first where the Brumbies are still trading as strong favourites at 4/6 and despite not looking at their best they look like bankers for the guaranteed final spot that comes with finishing top of the table. The Rebels have drifted slightly from 28/10 to 3/1 and the Reds have come in half a point from 6/1 to 11/2. The Waratahs are stable at 9/1.
Click here for Outright Betting, previous week’s prices in brackets
Brumbies 4/6 (7/10)
Rebels 3/1 (28/10)
Reds 11/2 (6/1)
Waratahs 9/1 (9/1)
Western Force 1000/1 (500/1)
WESTERN FORCE v REDS – Click here to bet
The Force are the only team in the competition without a victory and last week they went down by 20 points to the Waratahs at this stadium. Their best performance of the season came against the Rebels where they drew 20-20 eventually losing 25-20 in Super Time and despite losing all 5 matches they have beaten 3 of the 5 handicaps the bookmakers have set.
The Reds kept themselves in contention for a final spot with a 19-3 win over the Rebels in Brisbane last week. It was a game built around defences, the Rebels dominated particularly in the second half, but the Reds held firm for an important win. They were coming off an awful 45-12 defeat to the Waratahs on the road and when these sides met earlier in the season it was the Reds who came out on top by 7 points in Brisbane.
BETTING
Western Force 4/1
Draw 35/1
Reds 1/5
Handicap: Western Force (+11.5) at 9/10, Reds (-11.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Winning Margin, Reds under 12.5 points at 17/10
I would be surprised if the Force chalked up their first victory of the season, but they have proved to be competitive in most of their games and the Reds have been inconsistent particularly if not playing at home. I think the Reds win this, but I am looking for it to be by 12 points or less.
BRUMBIES v WARATAHS – Click here to bet
The Brumbies are still in pole position at the top of the table leading by 2 points and with a game in hand over their opposition. They returned from a bye having been beaten by 18 points by the Rebels, their first loss of the Tournament in Week 6. They previously won all 4 matches, but 3 of them were tight and only a 24-0 win over the Force saw more than an 8 point victory margin.
The Waratahs are 3 points behind the Brumbies, but they have hit a purple patch beating the Force by 20 last week and prior to that hammering the Reds 45-12 at home. Given how well they are currently playing the 9/1 they win the Tournament could well prove to be value although you would think a victory in this game is crucial.
The Waratahs led for long periods of the reverse fixture in Sydney with the Brumbies getting up late to win 24-23.
BETTING
Brumbies 7/20
Draw 28/1
Waratahs 5/2
Handicap: Brumbies (-7.5) at 9/10, Waratahs (-7.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Waratahs (+7.5) at 9/10
I am wary of getting too involved in this one as the Australian teams have proved inconsistent but based on what I have seen in recent weeks the Waratahs have every chance of a win here and the handicap looks a solid bet.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
