The Investec Champions Cup continues this weekend with action taking place from the 10th to the 12 of January. In this blog Brent Graham considers early thoughts and odds and ultimately provides a brief preview and his bet on each game. He will also look at selected Challenge Cup games.
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Posted 06 January 12h47
Happy New Year Rugby Punters – let’s hope we can beat the bookies in 2025!
The Champions Cup is an interesting tournament to bet on with team selection important and often unpredictable.
A review of current pool standings and early handicaps to follow.
FORMAT
Understanding the format is important as it will have an impact on team selections and tactics.
4 pools of 6 teams - 2 from each league
Teams will play 4 matches against teams from other leagues (one home and one away against each league)
Top 4 teams will play each other in knockout for place in last 8, top 2 teams will have home ground
5th placed teams drop to Challenge Cup where they will be away to teams placed 5-8 in that comp
Thereafter quarters, semi's and the final is in Wales
Pool 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +83 | W W | 10 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Bègles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +35 | W W | 10 |
| 3 | Leicester | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +25 | L W | 6 |
| 4 | Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -21 | W L | 5 |
| 5 | Exeter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -61 | L L | 0 |
| 6 | Ulster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -61 | L L | 0 |
Posted 6 Jan 13h25
Pool 1 Fixtures and early handicaps
Exeter +16.5 v Bordeaux-Begles
Sharks +8.5 v Toulouse
Leicester -14.5 v Ulster
Pool 1 - early thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h45
This is a very strong pool. Toulouse are likely to send a strong team to Durban but if the Sharks can get something out of that game they have every chance of going through. Exeter and Ulster play in the final game at Ulster but assuming they both lose this weekend which looks likely the Sharks may not need to win any of their final games (next week away to Bordeaux) to qualify.
I expect Ulster to field something of a B team and that -14.5 Leicester could go out further.
I think the other handicaps feel about right for now.
Pool 2 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Rochelais | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +32 | W W | 9 |
| 2 | Leinster | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +31 | W W | 9 |
| 3 | Clermont | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +20 | W L | 5 |
| 4 | Benetton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -27 | L W | 5 |
| 5 | Bath | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | L L | 2 |
| 6 | Bears | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -51 | L L | 0 |
Pool 1 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 13h50
La Rochelle +4.5 v Leinster
Bristol -14.5 v Benetton
Bath -14.5 v Clermont
Pool 2 Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h57
The La Rochelle v Leinster match is huge as far as who finishes top of the table. There is also a serious rivalry developed after La Rochelle have ruined Leinsters camapigns in the final the l;ast couple of years. If anything I think La Rochelle may be the early value.
Bath in theory very much in it but even if they beat Clermont they are away to Leinster in week 4 and I wonder if they will really fancy their chances.
The Bears may still fancy their chances as well with an away trip to Clermont next week.
It will be interesting to see what teams Benetton and Clermont sends over. The betting suggests tehy will rest top players and in that case the early minus often blows out.
Pool 3 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +39 | W W | 10 |
| 2 | Saracens | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +33 | W W | 9 |
| 3 | Munster | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +24 | W L | 6 |
| 4 | Castres | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -28 | L W | 4 |
| 5 | Bulls | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -31 | L L | 0 |
| 6 | Paris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -37 | L L | 0 |
Pool 3 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 15h34
Munster -0.5 v Saracens
Stade Francais +7.5 v Northampton
Castres +0.5 v Bulls
Pool 3 Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h44
Northampton were excellent in beating the Bulls away and with a final game at home to Munster I expect them to go full strength here. Stade Francias are at home but may well let this one go and the handicap could go out.
Munster v Saracens should be a great game, I am leaning Saracens but with no conviction.
There was +2.5 Castre early so money coming for them. They are in the mix and I expect the Bulls could send a weakened side.
Early Bet: 5 units Castres win at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
Pool 4 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | W W | 8 |
| 2 | Glasgow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | W L | 7 |
| 3 | Harlequins | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +26 | L W | 5 |
| 4 | Sale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | L W | 5 |
| 5 | Racing 92 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | W L | 4 |
| 6 | Stormers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -47 | L L | 0 |
Pool 4 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 15h56
Glasgow -15.5 v Racing 92
Stormers -7.5 v Sale
Toulon -8.5 v Harlequins
Pool 4 - Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 16h14
This is a very competitive pool and by the looks of the betting bookies are only expecting Racing to throw in the towel this week.
Stormers although pointless should go full strength in front of what should be a good crowd at the end of the holidays but if Sale go full strength they may just push them
Toulon v Harlequins cap looks about right.
I short I have no early feel on these fixtures and will be on the lookout for team news whispers.
