The Investec Champions Cup continues this weekend with action taking place from the 10th to the 12 of January. In this blog Brent Graham considers early thoughts and odds and ultimately provides a brief preview and his bet on each game. He will also look at selected Challenge Cup games.
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CHAMPIONS CUP WEEK 4 HANDICAPPING
I am going to do a video tonight wrapping up week 3 and looking at the permutations ahead of week 4. The week ahead could be very volitile as far as the markets go and the thinking of this video is to know what to look out for.
I don't know what time I will do it but you can Subscribe to the Goodforthegame Channel Here and hit the bell to be notified.
BATH v CLERMONT
Posted 12 Jan 12h29
This handicap has been fairly stable all week and Bath are currently -13.5. Both of these sides are still very much in the Champions Cup so we could be in for a great match.
It is the total points line of 53.5 that catches my eye. It will be clear but cold and humidity levels are late 80's and that is usually a sign for me to take the unders.
BET: 3 units under 53.5 points at 87/100 at Pokerbet
LA ROCHELLE V LEINSTER
Posted 12 Jan 11h32
With both teams playing very winnable fixtures next week the winner of this game is almost certain to top the table.
The handicap has shifted from +4.5 La Rochele to the current line of +7.5. The points line is 47.5.
These sides have a proper rivalry with La Rochelle having beaten Leinster in the 2022 and 2023 finals however Leinster got the better of them twice in last seasons Champions Cup.
The points line is 47.5 and although conditions look good you would expect this to be a real arm wrestle.
Leinster have been excellent in defence this season and have conceded 20 points or less (usually much less) in their last 10 matches in all competions and I ma betting on more of the same.
BET: 4 units La Rochelle under 20.5 points at 9/10 at Pokerbet
BRISTOL BEARS v BENETTON
Posted 12 Jan 10h52
This handicap has been stable at -14.5 all week.
The Bears have named a solid starting lineup with an excellent bench and in a game where I do not want to get heavily involved (focus will be on La Rochelle v Leinster) I am choosing between 2 plays.
Bears to win both halves is 9/10 and the Bears 2nd half handicap is -7.5 at 17/20 which is where I heading.
BET: 3 units Bears 2nd half handicap -7.5 at 17/20 at Sunbet
TOULON v HARLEQUINS
Posted 12 Jan 09h27
This should be a great game to watch in what promises to be cool/cold but dry conditions.
The handicap is Toulon -9.5 and the points line is 55.5.
Harlequins haven't been quite the same attacking force of late but I fancy them to play a role in a high scoring thriller.
Over 7.5 tries is 8/11 and I don't expect alot of penalties so am weighing that up against the over 55.5
In the end I have settled on the slightly bigger price and will go with the points.
BET: 4 units Over 55.5 points at 0.92/1 at Betxchange
A NEW DAY
Posted 12 Jan 08h50
I am feeling in much better spirits after the early Castres bet arrived together with the Castres/Leicester minus double taken last night. I am still behind the bookies but not by much and with 4 games today there is still plenty of opportunity.
My bets to follow
LEICESTER v ULSTER
Posted 11 Jan 20h06
This one is late because it hasn't been a great day.
I fancy Leicester will be too strong for an Ulster team that will likely be focusing on URC going forward.
I am going to take the -14.5 in a double with Castre -10.5 against the Bulls.
BET: 2 units :Leicester -14.5 0.94/1 onto Castres -10.5 0.86/1 = 26/10 at Betxchange
MUNSTER v SARACENS
Posted 11 Jan 09h59
This should be a cracking match and the betting has been pretty stable all week with Munster the narrowest of favourites.
Of the 2 sides I feel that Saracens will be the hungrier given they are 2 from 2 in this tournament and I am backing them to get the job done on what should be a cold, humid night (points line is 45.5)
BET: 3 units Saracens win at 23/20 at WSB
STADE FRANCAIS v NORTHAMPTON SAINTS
Posted 11 Jan 09h50
The handicap has shifted from +7.5 SF to +3.5 on the back of team news.
I get the feeling that the Saints are focusing on next weeks home game against Munster but at the same time are hoping to do enough to get a result here and I am going to back them to do just that.
BET: 2 units Saints by 1-12 points inclusive at 6/4 at Sportingbet
EXETER V BORDEAUX
Posted 11 Jan 08h30
Exeter haven't named a bad side and at home against Bordeaux I think they can beat a high handicap. There is always a chance that Bordeaux step off the gas at some point if they do dominate early so its the +18.5 for me.
I was looking at points overs at 57.5 and also Exeter points at 19.5 but the lines are a few points too high for me and I will stick with the handicap.
Weather looks like being cold, cloudy but rain is unlikley.
BET: 3 units Exeter +18.5 at 9/10 at WSB
GLASGOW LEAVE A SOUR TASTE
Posted 11 Jan 08h16
At half time last night I was almost banking the Glasgow overs but they turned in a scrappy 2nd half and round 1 has gone to the bookies.
Most of the handicaps seem pretty stable now although one I didn't mention was Stade Francais into +3.5 from +7.5 so I am assuming Saints are not at full strength but will confirm.
I went for Sale Sharks on the board against the Stormers and the full preview is here
TEAMS RELEASED
Posted 10 Jan 16h04
The Teams have been released and a big mover is Toulouse -16.5 from -10.5 after Sharks have named a team that is missing a few key players.
STORMERS V SALE
The preview is up on the home page
BET: 2 units Sale Sharks win at 31/10 at Betxchange
GLASGOW V RACING
Posted 10 Jan 10h19
The handicap is stable around -22.5.
I still like the minus but prefer the Glasgow overs currently available at 37.5 at WSB and Betx (9/10 and 0.88/1)
I see this line moving out in what should be cold but dry conditions.
BET: 5 units Glasgow over 37.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
CASTRES AND GLASGOW FIRM
Posted 9 January 22h58
There are only 2 games which have seen major moves.
The Bulls have named a B side as we expected and Castres are now -9.5 from +0.5 and then -3.5.
Racing 92 have also left their stars at home and Glasgow have shot to -22.5 from -15.5 - unfortunatly I missed that one but will have a bet up on that game tonight or tomorrow morning.
Toulouse are also 1-0.5 from -8.5 away to the Sharks
EARLY MOVERS
Posted 8 Jan 09h05
Pool 1 hasn’t seen a lot of action with all handicaps within a point of where they were when the prices were posted. If we are going to read anything into small movement there appears to have been support for Bordeaux, Toulouse and Leicester and Toulouse have also come in for some forum support.
Pool 2 has seen little to no movement although there appears to be some money for Bristol and Leinster who have edged out a point.
Pool 3 has seen a big mover with Castres going from +0.5 to -3.5 against the Bulls. Castres win at 0.93/1 was my early play (see below) and while it still needs to arrive it is good to see the market heading in the right direction. No movement on Munster or Northampton games.
Pool 4 has also been stable with only the Warriors edging out a point from -15.5 to -16.5 against Racing.
Posted 06 January 12h47
Happy New Year Rugby Punters – let’s hope we can beat the bookies in 2025!
The Champions Cup is an interesting tournament to bet on with team selection important and often unpredictable.
A review of current pool standings and early handicaps to follow.
FORMAT
Understanding the format is important as it will have an impact on team selections and tactics.
4 pools of 6 teams - 2 from each league
Teams will play 4 matches against teams from other leagues (one home and one away against each league)
Top 4 teams will play each other in knockout for place in last 8, top 2 teams will have home ground
5th placed teams drop to Challenge Cup where they will be away to teams placed 5-8 in that comp
Thereafter quarters, semi's and the final is in Wales
Pool 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +83 | W W | 10 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Bègles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +35 | W W | 10 |
| 3 | Leicester | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +25 | L W | 6 |
| 4 | Sharks | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -21 | W L | 5 |
| 5 | Exeter | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -61 | L L | 0 |
| 6 | Ulster | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -61 | L L | 0 |
Posted 6 Jan 13h25
Pool 1 Fixtures and early handicaps
Exeter +16.5 v Bordeaux-Begles
Sharks +8.5 v Toulouse
Leicester -14.5 v Ulster
Pool 1 - early thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h45
This is a very strong pool. Toulouse are likely to send a strong team to Durban but if the Sharks can get something out of that game they have every chance of going through. Exeter and Ulster play in the final game at Ulster but assuming they both lose this weekend which looks likely the Sharks may not need to win any of their final games (next week away to Bordeaux) to qualify.
I expect Ulster to field something of a B team and that -14.5 Leicester could go out further.
I think the other handicaps feel about right for now.
Pool 2 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Rochelais | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +32 | W W | 9 |
| 2 | Leinster | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +31 | W W | 9 |
| 3 | Clermont | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +20 | W L | 5 |
| 4 | Benetton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -27 | L W | 5 |
| 5 | Bath | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | L L | 2 |
| 6 | Bears | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -51 | L L | 0 |
Pool 2 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 13h50
La Rochelle +4.5 v Leinster
Bristol -14.5 v Benetton
Bath -14.5 v Clermont
Pool 2 Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h57
The La Rochelle v Leinster match is huge as far as who finishes top of the table. There is also a serious rivalry developed after La Rochelle have ruined Leinsters camapigns in the final the l;ast couple of years. If anything I think La Rochelle may be the early value.
Bath in theory very much in it but even if they beat Clermont they are away to Leinster in week 4 and I wonder if they will really fancy their chances.
The Bears may still fancy their chances as well with an away trip to Clermont next week.
It will be interesting to see what teams Benetton and Clermont sends over. The betting suggests tehy will rest top players and in that case the early minus often blows out.
Pool 3 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +39 | W W | 10 |
| 2 | Saracens | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +33 | W W | 9 |
| 3 | Munster | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +24 | W L | 6 |
| 4 | Castres | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -28 | L W | 4 |
| 5 | Bulls | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -31 | L L | 0 |
| 6 | Paris | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -37 | L L | 0 |
Pool 3 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 15h34
Munster -0.5 v Saracens
Stade Francais +7.5 v Northampton
Castres +0.5 v Bulls
Pool 3 Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 13h44
Northampton were excellent in beating the Bulls away and with a final game at home to Munster I expect them to go full strength here. Stade Francias are at home but may well let this one go and the handicap could go out.
Munster v Saracens should be a great game, I am leaning Saracens but with no conviction.
There was +2.5 Castre early so money coming for them. They are in the mix and I expect the Bulls could send a weakened side.
Early Bet: 5 units Castres win at 0.93/1 at Betxchange
Pool 4 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | DIFF | Last 5 | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Toulon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +11 | W W | 8 |
| 2 | Glasgow | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +18 | W L | 7 |
| 3 | Harlequins | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +26 | L W | 5 |
| 4 | Sale | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +3 | L W | 5 |
| 5 | Racing 92 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -11 | W L | 4 |
| 6 | Stormers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -47 | L L | 0 |
Pool 4 Fixtures and Early Handicaps
Posted 6 Jan 15h56
Glasgow -15.5 v Racing 92
Stormers -7.5 v Sale
Toulon -8.5 v Harlequins
Pool 4 - Early Thoughts
Posted 6 Jan 16h14
This is a very competitive pool and by the looks of the betting bookies are only expecting Racing to throw in the towel this week.
Stormers although pointless should go full strength in front of what should be a good crowd at the end of the holidays but if Sale go full strength they may just push them
Toulon v Harlequins cap looks about right.
I short I have no early feel on these fixtures and will be on the lookout for team news whispers.
