The Investec Champions Cup continues this weekend with action taking place from the 17^th to the 19^th of January. In this blog Brent Graham considers early thoughts and odds and ultimately provides a brief preview and his bet on each game.

 

 

 

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Click here for my video talking through the week 4 permutations and handicaps

 

6 EARLY HANDICAPS

Posted 13 Jan 15h47

Bookmakers are weary about this weekend (I don’t blame them) and only 6 handicaps are out (in brackets from Betxchange)

Northampton Saints -8.5 (-7.5) vs. Munster Rugby

ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 (-11.5) vs. Bristol Bears

Benetton Rugby +14.5 (+8.5) vs. Stade Rochelais

Leinster Rugby -18.5 (-14.5) vs. Bath Rugby

Harlequins -4.5 (-1.5) vs. Glasgow Warriors

Sale Sharks +9.5 (-0.5) vs. RC Toulon

Some big differences with mine

The biggest is Toulon and given they may need to win the game to finish top I am surprised to see Sale favourite.

 

SUMMARY OF MY HANDICAPS

Posted 13 Jan 09h56

Ulster Rugby -17.5 vs. Exeter Chiefs

Vodacom Bulls -8.5 vs. Stade Francais Paris

Northampton Saints -8.5 vs. Munster Rugby

ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 vs. Bristol Bears

Benetton Rugby +14.5 vs. Stade Rochelais

Leinster Rugby -18.5 vs. Bath Rugby

Harlequins -4.5 vs. Glasgow Warriors

Racing 92 -15.5 vs. DHL Stormers

Union Bordeaux-Bègles -28.5 vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks

Saracens -25.5 vs. Castres Olympique

Stade Toulousain -26.5 vs. Leicester Tigers

Sale Sharks +9.5 vs. RC Toulon

 

Lets wait and see what the bookies do. I expect some big differences this week. 

 

POOL 1 FIXTURES

 

Ulster Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs - Fri, 17 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Winner likely to finish 5^th and play in Challenge Cup

• Unlikely Exeter will go full strength, Ulster might

• Next week Ulster at home to Zebre, Exeter at home to Saracens

My Handicap: Ulster -17.5

 

Bordeaux-Bègles vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 15:00

• Bordeaux needs 5 points to top the table

• Sharks may qualify even with a loss

• Sharks away to Cardiff next week, Bordeaux at home to Lyon

• Sharks likely to field B team

• Bordeaux may step off gas once bonus point bagged

My Handicap: Bordeaux -28.5

 

Stade Toulousain vs. Leicester Tigers - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Toulouse will know whether they can still finish top by kick-off

• Leicester safe in 3rd and unlikely to improve (must win) so expect major changes

• Next week Toulouse at home to Montpellier, Leicester away to Gloucester

My Handicap: Toulouse -26.5

 

POOL 2 FIXTURES

 

ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Bristol Bears - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Winner likely to progress, possibly even in 3^rd

• Next week Clermont away to Pau, Bristol at home to Newcastle

• I suspect Bristol will rest players for league game

My Handicap: Clermont -14.5

 

Benetton Rugby vs. Stade Rochelais - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Tricky to know what teams will be thinking

• La Rochelle away to Toulon next week and may feel they can rest players and still win

• Benetton away to Ospreys next week

• Benetton will likely go full strength, I think La Rochelle rest a few

My Handicap: Benetton +14.5

 

Leinster Rugby vs. Bath Rugby - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Kick off at same time as La Rochelle match

• Leinster Stormers at home next week, Bath Sale way

• Suspect Bath rest players, likely to qualify even with a loss

• Leinster may also rest players, look for RG Snyman to start

My Handicap: Leinster -18.5

 

POOL 3 FIXTURES

 

Vodacom Bulls vs. Stade Francais - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 15:00

• Bulls cannot progress, could in theory make Challenge Cup

• Will Bulls risk fielding weak side at home

• Stade Francais could make it with bonus point win, but do they want to?

• This game should have plenty of points

My Handicap: Bulls -18.5

 

Northampton Saints vs. Munster Rugby – Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Loser likely to finish 3^rd, winner strong chance of topping the log

• Next week Munster away to Dragons, Northampton away to Harlequins

• Suspect Munster realise finishing top is unlikely and may settle for 3^rd and rest a few

My Handicap: Saints -8.5

 

Saracens vs. Castres Olympique - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 17:15

• Saracens will know whether they can top the log

• Next week Saracens away to Exeter, Castres away to Racing

• Expect Saracens to go full strength

• Castres likely to settle for 4^th (unlikely they get overtaken) and my rest

My Handicap: Saracens -25.5

 

POOL 4 FIXTURES

 

Harlequins vs. Glasgow Warriors - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Warriors can top the table but likely have to win big

• Harlequins likely to qualify but if Sale beat Toulon they could go out

• Quins at home to Saints next week, Warriors at home to Connacht

• Suspect both teams go full strength

My Handicap: Harlequins -4.5

 

Racing 92 vs. DHL Stormers - Sat, 18 Jan 2025, 22:00

• Winner has a strong chance of going through, would need 1 of either Quins or Sale to lose

• Racing at home to Castres next week, Stormers away to Leinster

• Both teams could rest or go full strength – tough one

My Handicap: Racing -15.5

 

Sale Sharks vs. RC Toulon - Sun, 19 Jan 2025, 19:30

• Toulon will know what is needed to finish top, cannot finish worse than 2^nd

• Sale will likely have to win but if Quins lose may get through with 1 or 2 bonus points

• Sale at home to Bath next week, Toulon at home to La Rochelle

My Handicap: Sale +9.5