A shell shocked Australia clash with Portugal in Rugby World Cup Pool C in Saint-Etienne in the first of Sunday's matches and it looks highly likely to be the Wallabies final action of the tournament
Australia v Portugal, Sunday 1st October, Saint-Etienne, KO17:45 (South African time)
Referee: Nika Amashukeli (GRU)
Assistant Referees: Mathieu Raynal (FFR), Andrea Piardi (FIR)
TMO: Joy Neville (IRFU)
Weather Forecast - Saint-Etienne
Australia:
The Wallabies crashed and burned in a 40-6 defeat to Wales last week and unless the result of Fiji's clash with Georgia gives them any hope of reaching the quarter finals they will be packing their bags after this. The game against Wales was priced up near enough “choice” by the bookmakers but the Wallabies were 16-6 behind at half time and folded in the second half.
Australia had started their campaign with a 35-15 bonus point victory over Georgia just short of the main handicap line of 22.5 points but despite starting 5.5 point favourites they subsequently lost a key game to Fiji (22-15) and they were fortunate to escape with a losing bonus point.
Wales are now assured of their place in the last 8 and if Fiji get a full house of log points in their clash with Georgia on Saturday then a quarter final spot will be beyond Australia regardless of what happens here. Any other outcome will mean their fate rests on Fiji's final group clash with Portugal and hence you can get 20/1 or so against them reaching the quarter finals.
Portugal:
Portugal lost their opening match 28-8 to Wales (-30 points on the handicap) but despite being 14.5 point underdogs for last week's clash with Georgia, they drew a match they really ought to have won 18-18. Raffaele Storti scored both of Portugal's tries and even after Georgia had levelled the scores with a late try Portugal let a chance of victory slip when missing a last gasp penalty.
Team News
Australia: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Mark Nawaqanitawase, 13 Izaia Perese, 12 Lalakai Foketi, 11 Marika Koroibete, 10 Ben Donaldson, 9 Tate McDermott, 8 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Richie Arnold, 4 Nick Frost, 3 James Slipper, 2 David Porecki (c), 1 Angus Bell
Replacements: 16 Matt Faessler, 17 Blake Schoupp, 18 Pone Fa’amausili, 19 Rob Leota, 20 Josh Kemeny, 21 Issak Fines-Leleiwasa, 22 Carter Gordon, 23 Suliasi Vunivalu
Portugal: 15 Nuno Sousa Guedes, 14 Raffaele Storti, 13 Pedro Bettencourt, 12 Tomás Appleton (c), 11 Rodrigo Marta, 10 Jerónimo Portela, 9 Samuel Marques , 8 Thibault de Freitas, 7 Nicolas Martins, 6 David Wallis, 5 Martim Belo, 4 José Madeira, 3 Diogo Hasse Ferreira, 2 Mike Tadjer, 1 David Costa
Replacements: 16 Francisco Fernandes, 17 Duarte Diniz, 18 Francisco Bruno, 19 Steevy Cerqueira, 20 Rafael Simoes, 21 Joao Belo, 22 Joris Moura, 23 Manuel Cardoso Pinto
The Betting
Australia -26.5 points at 9/10
Portugal +28.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
I was surprised when this handicap dropped to -23.5 at the time of going live on Fridays THE HANDICAP our rugby betting show but the money has as predicted now come for the Wallabies and I am kicking myself for moving slowly to back this one.
Australia have had a poor RWC but remain in with a mathematical chance of qualifying (they would need a bonus and Fiji would have to lose and fail to get a bonus point against Portugal) and I am expecting a strong showing from them here.
Portugal have punched above their weight and were full value for the win against Georgia but we are at the stage of the tournament where the depth of the smaller teams is tested and I am betting on a big Australian win.
The points line of 59.5 looks well set.
Stay close to our forum thread where I will post any outright or points plays on this game
BET: 6 units Australia -26.5 at 1/1 at Betxchange (Using the Boost - 5k max, can’t use in multiples)
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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