South Africa begin their defence of the Rugby World Cup in Marseille on Sunday and their first assignment comes against Scotland in Pool B.
South Africa v Scotland, Sunday 10th September, Marseille, KO 17:45 (South African time)
Referee: Angus Gardner (RA)
Assistant Referees: Nika Amashukeli (GRU), Jordan Way (RA)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)
Weather Forecast – Marseille
South Africa:
South Africa's most recent warm up produced a record margin win over the All Blacks in a game staged at Twickenham. They came out on top 35-7 and although they played much of the game with a numerical advantage, the manner of victory saw them shorten considerable in the outright betting markets. Earlier warm ups saw the Boks thump Wales 52-16 in Cardiff and they also beat Argentina 24-13 in Buenos Aires.
Going back to RWC 2019 in Japan South Africa lost their first pool match against the All Blacks but recovered to put Namibia, Italy and Canada away. Their route to the final comprised of wins over the hosts and then Wales before England were seen off in the final as the Boks added a third title to those which came in 1995 and 2007.
The Springboks have an excellent record against Scotland winning 14 of the last 15 head to heads. They also have Ireland as a huge threat in this pool whilst Tonga are also involved and Romania are expected to be the also rans.
As far as the RWC outright betting is concerned South Africa are trading at around 32/10 to win the tournament and 15/10 to reach the final with Betway. The betting to top Pool B has South Africa priced up 8/10 and Ireland at 23/20.
Scotland:
Scotland began their RWC prep with a 25-13 win over Italy at Murrayfield. A double head against France delivered a 25-21 on home turf and a 30-27 defeat away from home before they returned to Edinburgh to beat Georgia 33-6.
In the 6 Nations earlier this year Scotland started with a 29-23 win over England at Twickenham and then beat Wales 35-7 at Murrayfield. Thereafter they lost 32-21 to France in Paris and also finished beaten (22-7) at home to Ireland before a 26-14 home win against Italy saw them finish the tournament in third spot.
Scotland last beat the Springboks in November 2010 at Murrayfield.
Scotland's best finishing position in RWC finals came back in 1991 when they finished fourth. In RWC 2019 they lost pool stages matches to Ireland and Japan (alongside wins over Russia and Samoa) and they failed to make the knockout rounds.
In the RWC outright betting Scotland are trading at around 40/1 to win the tournament with Betway and they are 9/1 to top Pool B.
Team News
South Africa: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Cheslin Kolbe, 10 Manie Libbok, 9 Faf de Klerk, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 6 Siya Kolisi (Captain), 5 Franco Mostert, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Frans Malherbe, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Steven Kitshoff.
Replacements: 16 Bongi Mbonambi, 17 Ox Nche, 18 Trevor Nyakane, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Marco van Staden, 21 Duane Vermeulen, 22 Grant Williams, 23 Willie le Roux
Scotland: Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Sione Tuipulotu, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 8 Jack Dempsey, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Jamie Ritchie (captain), 5 Grant Gilchrist, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Zander Fagerson, 2 George Turner, 1 Pierre Schoeman.
Replacements: 16 Dave Cherry, 17 Jamie Bhatti, 18 WP Nel, 19 Scott Cummings, 20 Matt Fagerson, 21 Ali Price, 22 Cameron Redpath, 23 Ollie Smith
Recent Head to Head
Nov 2021 INT Edinburgh Scotland 15–30 South Africa
Nov 2018 INT Edinburgh Scotland 20-26 South Africa
Oct 2015 RWC Newcastle South Africa 34-16 Scotland
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The Betting
South Africa -11.5 points at 9/10
Scotland +11.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
This handicap has been hovering around -10.5 to -12.5 for the past 6 weeks. If pushed I would suggest Scotland can beat it but I am not going to get involved and will instead focus on the points market.
The line has been set at 47.5 and given the importance of the game I expect 3 pointers to be taken when on offer. The line looks about right to me and I think there is better value in the total tries market.
Pokerbet have the line at 5.5 with unders at 11/10 and I think this is a decent play given I expect plenty of 3 pointers.
I will post any additional bets in the forum should I get a fancy closer to kick off.
BET: 4 units under 5.5 tries at 11/10 at Pokerbet
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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