The final round of Six Nations rugby takes place on Saturday and first up Italy host Ireland in Rome.
Italy v Ireland, Saturday 15th March, Rome, KO 16:15 (South African time)
Referee: Luke Pearce (RFU)
Assistant Referees: Angus Gardner (RA), Morné Ferreira (SARU)
TMO: Andrew Jackson (RFU)
Weather Forecast: Rome
Italy
Italy have won 1 and lost 3 of their matches, they can finish no higher than their current fifth position and with just the 4 log points they are 1 better off than Wales who are also looking to avoid the wooden spoon.
In Round 4 Italy went down 47-24 to England at Twickenham, a margin of defeat which was pretty much in line with the bookmakers main handicap line. Italy were only 4 points down at half time (21-17) after first half tries from Capuozzo and Vintcent but by the time Menoncello scored their third try on 71 minutes England were out of sight.
Italy were thrashed 73-24 by France in their Round 3 home fixture, a record points total for Les Bleus against the Italians. Their only log points return this season came in a 22-15 home win over Wales in Round 2. Capuozzo scored their only try of the game, converted by Allan who also landed with 5 penalties. In Round 1 Italy took on Scotland at Murrayfield and they finished beaten 31-19.
In the outright betting markets with WSB Italy are currently 2/1 to finish bottom of the standings with Wales trading at 7/20 for the wooden spoon.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Scotland (a) lost 31-19, R2 Wales (h) won 22-15, R3 France (h) lost 73-24, R4 England (a) lost 47-24, R5 Ireland (h)
Ireland
Ireland have won 3 and lost 1 of their matches but last week's home defeat to France saw them finish the round in third place with 14 log points, 1 behind England and 2 shy of France. With England due to host Wales and France at home to Scotland later in the day it would take an extraordinary sequence of results for Ireland to retain the title.
Ireland lost top spot to Les Bleus who beat them 42-27 at the Avivia Stadium last Saturday. It was billed as arguably the defining match of the tournament in terms of the title race and Ireland trailed 8-6 at half time but 4 of 5 tries scored by France came in the second half, Ireland replied with 3 tries of their own in the second 40 but the outcome was evident some way before full time.
Earlier the defending champions were made to work much harder than the betting markets suggested to come away from Cardiff with a 27 – 18 win over Wales in Round 3. They also won 32-18 against Scotland at Murrayfield in Round 2 and they made a winning start at home to England, coming out on top 27-22.
Fixtures & Results: R1 England (h) won 27-22, R2 Scotland (a) won 32-18, R3 Wales (a) won 27-18, R4 France (h) lost 42-27, R5 Italy (a)
Team News
Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex (captain), 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Manuel Zuliani, 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Dino Lamb, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 1 Danilo Fischetti.
Replacements: 16 Giacomo Nicotera, 17 Mirco Spagnolo, 18 Giosue Zilocchi, 19 Niccolo Cannone, 20 Michele Lamaro, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Stephen Varney, 23 Leonardo Marin
Ireland: 15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 James Lowe, 10 Jack Crowley, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris, 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Jack Conan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 4 Finlay Bealham, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1. Andrew Porter.
Replacements: 16 Gus McCarthy, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Tadgh Furlong, 19 Joe McCarthy, 20 Peter O’Mahony, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Sam Prendergast, 23 Bundee Aki
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2024 6N Dublin Ireland 36-0 Italy
2023 6N Rome Italy 20-34 Ireland
2022 6N Dublin Ireland 57-6 Italy
2021 6N Rome Italy 10-48 Ireland
2020 6N Dublin Ireland 50-17 Italy
2019 6N Rome Italy 16-26 Ireland
2018 6N Dublin Ireland 56-19 Italy
2017 6N Rome Italy 10-63 Ireland
The Betting
Updated 14 March 10h06
Italy +20.5 points at 9/10
Ireland -20.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 14 March 10h23
This handicap was +23.5 Italy earlier in the week and it has come into 20.5 where it seems to have stabilized.
Ireland have picked a strong side but there must be some negative feelings after last weeks hammering and I think in what looks like being wet conditions this game could get scrappy.
The points line is set at 64.5 and that is high enough for me to go low.
BET: 4 units under 64.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Subscribe to our free weekly betting mailer which will include our best and value bets below.
