Wales host England in the second of the final round of Six Nations matches taking place on Saturday and the visitors still hold a slender hope of landing the title
Wales v England, Saturday 15th March, Cardiff, KO 18:45 (South African time)
Referee: Nic Berry (RA)
Assistant Referees: Pierre Brousset (FFR), Hollie Davidson (SRU)
TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)
Weather Forecast: Cardiff (only applicable if the roof is open)
Wales
After losing all 4 of their matches so far Wales come into the final round at the foot of the standings and staring down the barrel of a second consecutive wooden spoon.
In Round 4 they were 16.5 point underdogs for their clash with Scotland at Murrayfield, they finished beaten 35-29 so it was one for the plus handicap backers and a late rally saw them pick up two bonus points. The Scots led 35-8 before 3 Welsh tries in the last 20 minutes or so made the scoreline a lot closer than what had looked likely and Wales losing streak now stands at 16 test matches.
Earlier Wales went into their Round 3 home fixture against Ireland as huge underdogs but held an 8 point lead at one stage in the second half before Ireland fought back to come out on top 27-18. Wales went down 22-15 to Italy in Rome in Round 2, they trailed 16-3 at half time but scored 2 late tries to at least earn a bonus point. In Round 1 Wales crashed and burned 43-0 to France in Paris.
With just the 3 log points Wales are at the foot of the standings, 1 shy of Italy and in the outright betting markets with WSB they are currently 7/20 to finish with the wooden spoon
Fixtures & Results: R1 France (a) lost 43-0, R2 Italy (a) lost 22-15, R3 Ireland (h) lost 27-18, R4 Scotland (a) lost 35-29, R5 England (h)
England
After losing their opening match of the tournament and then reeling off 3 straight wins England have moved into second spot in the standings and with 15 log points they are 1 better off than Ireland (away to Italy earlier in the day) but 1 point behind France (home to Scotland in the match which follows this game).
England kept their title hopes alive with a 47-24 win over Italy at Twickenham in Round 4. They were only marginally ahead at half time (21-17) but went on to score 7 ties in total to pick up a bonus point and just about cover a-22.5 point handicap set by the bookmakers.
In earlier home games England edged out Scotland 16-15 at Twickenham in Round 3 where the Scots failed to convert a late try which would have seen England beaten. In Round 2 when they edged out France 26-25 with a last gasp try to scrape a win with a bonus point. In their opening round clash against Ireland in Dublin England lost 27-22.
In the outright betting markets with WSB England are currently 8/1 to win the title whilst France 1 / 10 favourites.
Fixtures & Results: R1 Ireland (a) lost 27-22, R2 France (h) won 26-25, R3 Scotland (h) won 16-15, R4 Italy (h) won 47-24, R5 Wales (a)
Team News
Wales: 15 Blair Murray, 14 Ellis Mee, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Ben Thomas, 11 Joe Roberts, 10 Gareth Anscombe, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Taulupe Faletau, 7 Jac Morgan (captain), 6 Aaron Wainwright, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Will Rowlands, 3 WillGriff John, 2 Elliot Dee, 1 Nicky Smith.
Replacements: 16 Dewi Lake, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Teddy Williams, 20 Tommy Reffell, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins
England: 15 Marcus Smith, 14 Tom Roebuck, 13 Tommy Freeman, 12 Fraser Dingwall, 11 Elliot Daly, 10 Fin Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell, 8 Ben Earl, 7 Ben Curry, 6 Tom Curry, 5 Ollie Chessum, 4 Maro Itoje (captain), 3 Will Stuart, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 1 Ellis Genge.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Chandler Cunningham-South, 20 Henry Pollock, 21 Tom Willis, 22 Jack van Poortvliet, 23 George Ford
Head to Head (6 Nations Only)
2024 6N Twickenham England 16-14 Wales
2023 6N Cardiff Wales 10-20 England
2022 6N Twickenham England 23-19 Wales
2021 6N Cardiff Wales 40–24 England
2020 6N Twickenham England 33-30 Wales
2019 6N Cardiff Wales 13-6 England
2018 6N Twickenham England 12-6 Wales
2017 6N Cardiff Wales 16-21 England
The Betting
Updated 14 March 13h59
Wales +11.5 points at 17/20
England -10.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 14 March 14h04
This handicap has been pretty stable all week although there is not much +11.5 Wales still on offer and it is now generally +10.5.
They have shown some fight in their last 2 games and I think they can push this England team and potentially even upset them.
My fancy though is the under 57.5 points.
If as I suspect Wales are competitive then this could turn into a tight match between 2 bitter rivals.
Under 57.5 would have arrived in the last 5 meetings between the sides.
BET: 4 units under 57.5 points at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
Note, odds are correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
Subscribe to our free weekly betting mailer which will include our best and value bets below.
