This blog focuses on Super Rugby Pacific Week 7 from a betting angle, starting with projected handicaps, tracking markets moves and weather and finally a bet in each game.
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BRUMBIES v HIGHLANDERS
Posted 27 March 23h48
The handicap has moved from Brumbies -8.5 to -10.5 and I think it is well set.
I am tempted by the over 56.5 but it is a game where I don't fancy anything strong and a small interest Brumbies to win by 1-12 points is the call.
BET: 2 units Brumbies by 1-12 points at 17/10 at WSB
HURRICANES v WARATAHS
Posted 27 March 23h41
This handicap was -9.5 most of the week but moved to -12.5 Canes after team news.
Conditions look good and the points line has edged up from 57.5 to 59.5.
I like the Hurricanes here and the choice is between over Hurricanes points at 19/20 at Hollywoodbets or over 5.5 tries at 11/10 at Sportingbet.
If they score 6 tries they are likely to beat the points line (need 50% of the conversions to land) and the question is whether any 3 pointers will be taken. If not the 11/10 is the way to go but at the end of the day the price difference is not that big and I will take the points option.
BET: 4 units Hurricanes over 36.5 points at 19/20 at Hollywoodbets
MARKET MOVES: POINTS LINE DROPS IN REDS GAME
Posted 27 March 09h34
Here are the latest handicaps and lines for the weekends matches
Hurricanes -12.5 v Waratahs, Points 57.5 - money for the Canes from -9.5
Brumbies -8.5 v Highlanders, Points 57.5 - money for the Brumbies -8.5 to -10.5
Crusaders -20.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 64.5 - no change
Reds -6.5 v Force, Points 54.5 - points have dropped from 58.5 so looks a good more to have grabbed the early line. Force in from -11.5 after team selections
REDS v WESTERN FORCE
Posted 26 March 10h35
My 1st bet of the weekend comes in the last match.
Lets start with the handicap whih remains stable at Reds -11.5.
It is the points line that interests me though and that is currently at 58.5.
Both teams have played some high scoring fixtures this season and the 6 most recent head to heads have had 3 overs and 3 unders at the current line.
The forecast for Brisbane shows rain and high humidity and I suspect this line may move down to the mid 50's.
BET: 4 units under 58.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
WEATHER LINKS FOR THE WEEKEND
Posted 26 March 10h25
Here are the latest weather forecasts and links for the week 7 action
FRIDAY
Hurricanes vs Waratahs – 08:05 - SKY Stadium, Wellington (Grass) - clear with some cloud
Brumbies vs Highlanders – 10:35 - GIO Stadium, Canberra (Grass) - clear and dry
SATURDAY
Crusaders vs Moana Pasifika – 08:05 - Apollo Projects Stadium, Christchurch (Grass) - clear, check humidity
Reds vs Western Force – 10:35- Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane (hybrid) - warm, likely rain and high humidity
HANDICAPS STABLE, POINTS ON 2 GAMES ARE UP
Posted 25 March 14h46
The handicaps are stable and Crusaders game is priced up at -20.5 (I did see some -24.5 initially) - latest caps and points lines below
Hurricanes -9.5 v Waratahs, Points 57.5
Brumbies -8.5 v Highlanders, Points 58.5
Crusaders -20.5 v Moana Pasifika, Points 64.5
Reds -11.5 v Force, Points 58.5
3 OF THE 4 SRP HANDICAPS ARE OUT
Posted 24 March 12h04
Bookies are out with 3 of the matches and here is how they compare to mine (Betxchange in brackets)
Hurricanes -10.5 (-9.5) v Waratahs
Brumbies -5.5 (-8.5) v Highlanders - fair enough on reflection my cap too low
Crusaders -22.5 v Moana Pasifika - no handicap yet
Reds -8.5 (-11.5) v Force - need to give this further thought but no early move
SUPER RUGBY WEEK 7 - HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 23 March 20h30
We have only 4 fixtures this week and below my handicap projections which will be compared to the bookmakers tomorrow
Hurricanes -10.5 v Waratahs
Brumbies -5.5 v Highlanders
Crusaders -22.5 v Moana Pasifika
Reds -8.5 v Force
Brumbies have a bye the following week
SUPER RUGBY WEEK 6 WRAP
Posted 23 March 20h25
Lets start with a look at the results of week 6, the updated log and the latest outright betting
My handicap projections will follow shortly.
Week 6 Results
Moana Pasifika 35 Chiefs 50 - Chiefs opened -12.5 but were backed to -18.5 so a middle was possible. Blog pick Moana +18.5 somehow arrived
Highlanders 23 Reds 29 - Highlanders started -4.5 and the blog pick "either team by 7 or less" arrived
Blues 19 Crusaders 42 - Blues were backed into -1.5 favourites but were blown away. Blog pick "either team by 7 or less" was well out
Waratahs 28 Brumbies 23 - Brumbies were well backed from -4.5 to -6.5 but were always chasing. Blog pick -5.5 missed
Force 52 Drua 15 - Force were backed from -3.5 to -6.5 and delivered in style. The blog pik over 8.5 tries landed with ease
Log after Week 6
Outright Betting after Week 6
