Streamed live from 09:00 on Thursday 14th March Brent Graham is joined by a team of rugby betting experts providing betting tips for the weekends action in Round 4 of Super Rugby
Live from 09:00 on Thursday 14th March, The Handicap, Rugby Betting Show
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CRUSADERS V HURRICANES
It is a strange site to see the Crusaders as underdogs at home and the handicap has bounced from +1.5 to +3.5 and back again. I think Punters are battling with the concept of opposing the Crusaders at home.
The reality for the Crusaders is that they have lost some senior players, a world class coach and also have a long injury list.
The Hurricanes will never have a better opportunity to win in Christchurch and I think they grab it although don’t think it will be a hammering.
The points line looks well set at 51.5 having come in from 54.5but keep an eye on our forum thread where I will post any late plays and where other punters share their intel and bets
BET: 2 units Hurricanes by 1-12 points at 16/10 at WSB
REBELS v REDS
I handicapped this game Rebels +8.5 and having opened +9.5 it has now generally settled around the +7.5 mark and I am not feeling strong about either side of the line.
I am also kicking myself for hesitating on the total points line which opened at 55.5. Last year there were 74 points in this one and the year before 68.
Conditions look good and both teams look full of running and I will bite the bullet and take on the current line of 57.5.
BET: 4 units over 57.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
I like overs in this one but will it make it into my weekly e-mail newsletter? Click here to join me as I battle the bookmakers!
FORCE v MOANA PASIFIKA
I handicapped this game Force -3.5 which is exactly where it opened. The line has since moved to -5.5 Force and while leaning to the home team I will focus on the points lines.
Total Points is high at 61.5 but I expect this game to break open at some point.
My fancy though is for the Force to score 5 tries or more
BET: 4 units Force 5 tries or more at 17/20 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
HIGHLANDERS V BRUMBIES
I handicapped this game Highlanders -4.5 so I was surprised when it opened Brumbies -3.5. The market has adjusted and now sits in-between my opening handicap and the bookies opening lines and I must admit to battling for a betting angle on this one.
Total points is priced at 56.5 which looks about right in Dunedin and while I am likely to get more involved close to kick-off (bets would be placed in the Forum thread), for now I am now going to go on a speculative try scorer play where I like the Brumbies winger, Corey Toole, to cross the line first.
BET: 0.5 UNITS, Corey Toole first try scorer at 10/1 at Pokerbet*
*Pokerbet are generally 1st to market with rugby points lines – click here to open an account
CHIEFS V FIJIAN DRUA
There was a massive difference of opinion between the bookmakers and myself on this one as I priced Chiefs -26.5 and the bookies opened -18.5. The line has been edging in my direction ever since though and currently sits at around the 22 point mark.
I like the look of this Chiefs team and against a Drua side which battles on the road, I am going to back the Chiefs to score at least 7 tries. The Chiefs point line is 42.5 and I think they are unlikely to be penalty goals taken in this one meaning there is better value in taking the 11/10 than there is 7 tries as they would likely need this to land the points overs.
BET: 4 UNITS, Chiefs over 6.5 tries at 11/10 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
WARATAHS V BLUES
This handicap has been bouncing around between Waratahs +9.5 and +7.5 all week. As a matter of interest, I capped the Waratahs +5.5, but having looked at the team sheets I am now in the Blues camp. I think the Blues are going to be too strong up front, particularly in the loose and I am going to back the Blues to score at least 5 tries.
BET: 5 UNITS, Blues Total Tries over 4.5 at 10/11 at Sportingbet*
*If you don’t have a Sportingbet account please use this link to open one
