The Uefa Champions League Round of 16 concludes on Wednesday with the second legs of four more matches including the Madrid derby between Atletico and Real
Prices quoted are correct at the time of writing but subject to change.
Lille 17/10 Draw 24/10 Dortmund 15/10
This tie is finely balanced after the first leg in Dortmund finished all square at 1-1. Karim Adeyemi gave Dortmund the lead midway through a first half they dominated but Lille improved after the break and Haraldsson's goal on 68 minutes earned them a draw.
Lille qualified automatically after finishing seventh in the league phase. They won 5, drew 1 and lost 2 of their matches and they took the scalps of Madrid pair Real (1-0 in a home game) and Atletico (3-1) in Spain. Lille are fifth in Ligue 1 but all of 21 points behind runaway leaders PSG.
Dortmund finished tenth in the league phase with 5 wins and 3 defeats. Two of those losses came away to Real and at home to Barcelona and they also finished on the losing side away to Bologna. In the play offs a 3-0 win away to Sporting put them in complete control and the second leg on home turf finished without a goal. Dortmund have slipped down to tenth in the Bundesliga where their record of 10 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats tells a story of inconsistency.
The Verdict
Dortmund blow hot and cold and the match result looks tricky. Lille kept just the 1 clean sheet in the league phase, a 1-0 home win over Real on Matchday 1 and both teams to score? (yes) was the way to go since then. With home advantage I'm looking for a Lille goalscorer and Jonathan David is the most likely
Bets: Anytime goalscorer Jonathan David at 15/10 with Sportingbet
Arsenal 4/10 Draw 38/10 PSV 13/2
Surely this tie has already been put to bed after Arsenal's 7-1 win away from home in the first leg. They led 3-1 at half time and never let up with goals from 6 different players including a brace for Odegaard. A Noa Loang penalty was all PSV had to show for their efforts.
The Gunners finished third in the league phase, winning 6, drawing 1 and losing 1 of their matches and they won all 4 home games without conceding. Second placed Arsenal are now 15 points behind Liverpool in the EPL title race, they do have a game in hand but in contrast to the first leg of this tie they have been finding goals hard to come by in recent league games.
PSV finished 14th in the league phase on the back of an undefeated home record of 3 wins and 1 draw. They came up against Juve in the play offs and although they lost the first leg 2-1 in Turin they turned things around with a 3-1 home win in the return, a game that went to extra time. In the Dutch top flight PSV are clear in second place but they trail Ajax by all of 8 points.
The Verdict
Given the first leg result enthusiasm for a betting interest in this one is pretty low my side but I'll side with Arsenal to avoid any cards in a game they have surely wrapped up. .
Bets: Arsenal total cards, under 0.5 at 1.87/1 with Sportingbet
Aston Villa 6/10 Draw 33/10 Club Brugge 4/1
The first leg saw Villa come away from Brugge with a 3-1 win. Bailey scored after just 3 minutes but De Cuyper quickly had Brugge level. It remained that way until an own goal restored Villa's lead on 82 minutes and Asensio made it 3-1 from the spot shortly afterwards.
Villa avoided the play offs after finishing 8th in the league phase to advance straight to the Ro16. They won 5 of their league matches, the pick of which came at home to Bayern but they did visit Brugge in Round 4 and they were beaten 1-0. Villa are8th in the EPL standings but its very congested and they are only 2 points off a top 6 place and 4 behind 4th placed Chelsea.
Brugge squeezed into the play offs for a Round of 16 place after finishing 24th in the league phase. They were relatively un-fancied against Atalanta in the in the play offs but pulled off wins at home (2-1) and then away (3-1) to go through with daylight. Brugge are a distant second to Gent in the Belgium top flight, 10 points off the pace.
The Verdict
Brugge were very much in the game until Villa's late show so there is still work to do for the home side. However I expect to see Villa come through and I quite like their chances of scoring 2-3 goals in total.
Bets: Villa multi goal 2-3 at 21/20 with Sportingbet
Atletico 1.55/1 Draw 5/2 Real 1.65/1
Real hold a 2-1 advantage from the first leg. Rodrygo needed just 4 minutes to put them in front but Alvarez squared things up and it was 1-1 at half time. What proved to be the winner came from Brahm Diaz on 55 minutes. All 3 goals were from the top drawer and Real should be able to call on Bellingham who missed the first leg through suspension.
Atletico qualified automatically with 6 wins and 2 defeats on their way to finishing fifth in the standings. Real finished 11th in the league phase with 5 wins and 3 defeats to make the play offs where they came up against Manchester City. A 3-2 win in Manchester in the first leg set things up and they finished the job with a 3-1 win in the return in Madrid.
In La Liga Real are in second spot, behind Barca on goal difference but with a game in hand. Atletico are 1 point back in third. The teams have already met twice in the league this season and both games finished all square at 1-1.
The Verdict
The match result betting suggests any of the 3 possible outcomes would come as no great surprise and I'm open minded about the outcome. Atletico trail but have home advantage, I expect them to have a decent few goal attempts and Alvarez is my pick to register 2 or more shots on target
Bets: Player shots on target Julian Alvarez 2+ at 23/10 with Sportingbet
Note, prices quoted are subject to change
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