Football ManUtd120The first leg of the Uefa Europa League semi finals take place on Thursday when Manchester United host AS Roma and Villarreal are at home Arsenal

 

 

 

Note all prices quoted are subject to change

 

Let's start with a look at the odds to lift the Europa League trophy this season.

 

Man United 11/10

Arsenal 26/10

Villarreal 9/2

Roma 15/2

 

1st Leg Match Result Villarreal 15/10 Draw 23/10 Arsenal 19/10

 

Villarreal have been a model of consistency in this season's Europa League winning all their matches barring one group stage draw. Knockout round form is the most relevant and at the first hurdle the La Liga side beat Salzburg away (2-0) and at home (2-1) before seeing off Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 away and 2-0 at home. In the quarter finals they beat Dynamo Zagreb 1-0 away and won the return 2-1 on home turf.

 

In La Liga Villarreral are no higher than seventh with a record of 12 wins, 13 draws and 8 defeats and at home they have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 4.

 

Arsenal came through their quarter final match up with Slavia Prague with a 5-1 aggregate win. The first leg in London finished all square at 1-1 but the Gunners romped to a 4-0 win in Prague to see off a side who had knocked out Leicester in the earlier rounds.

Arsenal were unbeaten in this competition until the Round of 16 when they lost 1-0 at home to Olmpiacos. Fortunately the Gunners already had a 3-1 first leg lead in that tie whilst in the first knockout round they drew 1-1 at Benfica and won the second leg 3-2 in London.

 

Arsenal are out of contention for a top 4 Premier League finish so if they are to qualify for the Champions League next season they will need to win this competition.

 

Verdict:

 

Villarreal look to have had the more favourable route to the semi finals in terms of the strength of opposition they have faced but they have been disappointing in La Liga. With below par league campaigns both these sides have everything riding on going all the way and lifting the trophy and this could be tight over the 2 legs.

 

I'm open minded about this first leg but there is a goals trend involving Villarreal which might be worth following and that is for 2-3 goals in total, an outcome which covers a number of scorelines I can envisage here.

 

If you are looking for an anytime goalscorer then Nicolas Pepe's exploits in this competition for Arsenal put him in the frame.

 

Bets: Total 1st leg goals 2-3 at 9/10

Anytime goalscorer Nicolas Pepe at 2.65/1

 

 

1st Leg Match Result Man United 11/10 Draw 33/10 Roma 4.75/1

 

United joined this competition after failing to make it to the Champions League knockout rounds and they sealed a semi final spot with a 4-0 aggregate win over Granada, winning both legs by a 2-0 scoreline. A Round of 16 clash with AC Milan saw the first leg in Manchester finish all square at 1-1 and United edged the return 1-0 thanks to a second half goal from Pogba. In the Round of 32 a 4-0 win in the first leg away to Real Sociedad put the tie to bed ahead of a 0-0 draw in the return.

 

United's EPL campaign looks set to deliver a top 3 finish and Champions League football next season.

 

Roma came through the group stage with 5 wins and 1 defeat before cruising past Braga 5-1 on aggregate in the first knockout round. In the last 16 they took control of their tie with Shakhtar with a 3-0 home win in the first leg and they also won the return 2-1. In the quarter finals Roma beat Ajax 2-1 in the first leg in Amsterdam and a 1-1 draw in Rome booked their semi final berth.

 

In Serie A Roma are currently seventh, 5 points shy of sixth placed Lazio and their away record is pretty average, 5 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats.

 

Verdict:

 

Roma's Europa League results are far more impressive than in Serie A and the visitors will want to keep the tie alive for next week's return.

 

I can see United winning this first leg by a single goal margin which you can take by selecting the draw option in the European handicap market Man United -1

goal.

 

Bets: European handicap Draw (United -1 goal) at 27/10

 

Note all prices quoted are subject to change

 

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