The first of Saturday's United Rugby Championship semi finals comes from the Aviva Stadium, Dublin where outright favourites Leinster clash with Glasgow Warriors
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Leinster v Glasgow Warriors, Saturday 7th June, Dublin, KO 15:45 (South African time)
Referee: Andrea Piardi (Italy)
Assistant Referees: Craig Evans (Wales), Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy)
TMO: Matteo Liperini (Italy)
Weather Forecast – Dublin
Leinster:
Leinster started their quarter final against the Scarlets at this venue on Saturday as 23.5 point favourites on the bookmakers main handicap line. They came out on top 33-21, scoring 4 tries to 3 but they were some way below their best form.
Leinster topped the URC log at the end of the regular season with a record of 16 wins and 2 defeats and their tally of 76 log points was 8 more than the second placed Bulls. They won their first 12 matches to pretty much have top spot sewn up before defeats away to the Bulls iand the Scarlets but in the final round of the regular season they came out on top at home to Saturday's opponents the Warriors 13-5 in Dublin.
Leinster lost a Champions Cup semi final against Northampton Saints at this venue recently which leaves them looking to the URC for some compensation but reaching finals has been a problem. Last season they fell at the semi final stage of the URC, losing away to the Bulls, in 2022/23 they also lost in the semi's to Munster and in 2021/22 they lost another semi final at home to the Bulls.
In the outright betting to win the URC title this season Leinster are 4/10 favourites with WSB.
Glasgow Warriors:
The Warriors quarter final clash with the Stormers took place in Glasgow on Friday last week, they were 6.5 point favourites on the main handicap line and they delivered for minus backers with a 36-18 victory. Glasgow scored 5 tries (including a brace for Kyle Rowe) to the Stormers 2 and they now continue their bid to retain the title they won in 2024 when they also won at home to the Stormers in the quarters, Munster (away) in the semi's and the Bulls at Loftus in the final.
The Warriors eventually finished fourth in the standings at the end of the regular season. They were in the top 2 for much of the campaign before three successive defeats in their last 3 matches. Their overall record comprised of 11 wins and 7 defeats and their tally of 59 log points was 17 shy of Leinster.
In the outright betting the Warriors are 14/1 to win the URC title with WSB.
Team News
Leinster: 15 Jimmy O’Brien, 14 Tommy O’Brien, 13 Jamie Osborne, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Jack Conan (c), 7 Scott Penny, 6 Ryan Baird, 5 James Ryan, 4 Joe McCarthy, 3 Thomas Clarkson, 2 Dan Sheehan, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Rónan Kelleher, 17 Jack Boyle, 18 Rabah Slimani, 19 RG Snyman, 20 Max Deegan, 21 Luke McGrath, 22 Ross Byrne, 23 Ciarán Frawley
Glasgow Warriors: 15 Josh McKay, 14 Kyle Steyn (c), 13 Sione Tuipulotu, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Kyle Rowe, 10 Adam Hastings, 9 George Horne, 8 Henco Venter, 7 Rory Darge, 6 Euan Ferrie, 5 Scott Cummings, 4 Alex Samuel, 3 Fin Richardson, 2 Gregor Hiddleston, 1 Jamie Bhatti
Replacements: 16 Johnny Matthews, 17 Rory Sutherland, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Max Williamson, 20 Jack Mann, 21 Macenzzie Duncan, 22 Stafford McDowall, 23 Jamie Dobie
The Betting,
Updated 05 June 10h08
Leinster -13.5 points at 9/10
Glasgow Warriors +13.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
Posted 04 June 10h30
This handicap opened Leinster -16.5 and given I made the line -9.5 I am not surprised to see its come in to -13.5.
It looks like being a wet day with temperatures in the 13-15 degree range.
Having missed the +16.5 Warriors I don't see any rush to get involved and will wait for teams and points lines.
Posted 05 June 10h08
The handicaps are stable but lets take a close look at the current hourly forecast at TimeandDate.com
The temperature looks like being around 13-14 degrees for the duration of the match with showers likely. There are also showers forecast all day.
Humidity looks set to be in the high 70's.
I really wish the URC announced teams at least 48 hours before like Super Rugby Pacific
Posted 06 June 22h20
The points line is set at 48.5 or 47.5 depending on where you shop. With some rain around I am leaning unders but having capped this game -9.5 I am going to follow my gut and go for the Warriors on the handicap.
Both sides are missing a player or 2 but I like the look of the Warriors team and I got the impression last week that they are emerging from their slump.
I give them a very real shout of an upset.
BET: 4 units Glasgow +14.5 at 17/20 at Hollywoodbets
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
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