In this Blog Brent Graham briefly reviews the Week 13 action, shares his handicap projections for Week 14, tracks betting moves and weather and towards the end of the week shares a bet in each game.
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EDINBURGH V DRAGONS
Posted 27 March 19h24
This handicap opened -18.5 and has moved to -20.5 after team news. Edinburgh welcome back a few internationals.
The points line is 52.5 and with some rain forecast before the game I ma leaning unders.
In truth though I have no firm view on this game and aside from Edinburgh kicking off my "buying money acca" I am not going to get too involved and will take a speculative total points play.
BET: 2 units Point Range 42-28 (incl.) at 3.80/1 (net decimal) at Betxchange
ULSTER V STORMERS
Posted 27 March 19h01
Click here for the full preview
Bet: 3 units Ulster win at 17/20 at Pokerbet
MARKET MOVES AND LATEST BETTING
Posted 27 March 10h34
Here are the latest handicaps
Ulster +2.5 vs DHL Stormers - stable
Edinburgh -18.5 vs Dragons -stable
Vodacom Bulls -20.5 vs Zebre Parma -stable
Connacht +3.5 vs Munster - Money for Munster from -0.5
Scarlets +2.5 vs Ospreys - stable
Hollywoodbets Sharks -8.5 vs Leinster - Sharks backed from -6.5 on basis Leinster have sent players back to prepare for Champions Cup
Benetton -9.5 vs Cardiff - stable
Glasgow Warriors -13.5 vs Emirates Lions - stable
URC WEATHER LINKS
Posted 26 March 20h21
Few groups pay as close attention to the weather as rugby punters and below links to weather at each of the weeks grounds and the current forecast
Friday
Ulster v Stormers, 21h35 - Kingspan Stadium (3G Artificial) - cold, rain forecast
Edinburgh v Dragons, 21h35 - The Hive Stadium, Edinburgh (Artificial) - Cold, at this point rain forecast earlier in the evening
Saturday
Bulls v Zebre, 14h45 - Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria (Grass) - hot and clear
Connacht v Munster, 16h30 - Hastings Insurance MacHale Park, Castlebar Co.Mayo - Cold and windy, possible rain
Scarlets v Ospreys, 17h00 - Parc Y Scarlets (Hybrid) - cold, high wind forecast, possible showers
Sharks v Leinster, 19h15 - Hollywoodbets Kings Park (Turf) - Hot, clear, humid
Benetton v Cardiff, 21h35 - Stadio Monigo Treviso (Grass) - cool, rain forecast in evening and likely to get heavier
Warriors v Lions, 21h35 - Scotstoun Stadium (Synthetic) - very cold, rain forecast before match, watch
URC WEEK 14 EARLY LINES
Posted 24 March 14h48
The early lines are out at Betxchange
Time to see if the bookies agree with me, Betx caps in brackets
Ulster -5.5 (+2.5) vs DHL Stormers - interesting I would assume full strength Ulster start favs at home
Edinburgh -17.5 (-17.5) vs Dragons
Vodacom Bulls -22.5 (-20.5) vs Zebre Parma
Connacht -6.5 (+0.5) vs Munster- a bit surprised at this and I reckon Connacht start favourites
Scarlets +2.5 (-3.5) vs Ospreys - will give further thought but been impressed with Ospreys
Hollywoodbets Sharks -4.5 (-6.5) vs Leinster
Benetton -6.5 (-7.5) vs Cardiff
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 (-12.5) vs Emirates Lions - if they full strength then fair enough
URC WEEK 14 HANDICAP PROJECTIONS
Posted 23 March 21h35
Here are my handicap projections - I am assuming all internationals will be available although would like to know whether Zebre and Leinster will be able to call on theirs given they are out in SA - any info on this please tweet me @brentgraham or e-mail brent@goodforthegame.co.za
Ulster -5.5 vs DHL Stormers
Edinburgh -17.5 vs Dragons
Vodacom Bulls -22.5 vs Zebre Parma
Connacht -6.5 vs Munster
Scarlets +2.5 vs Ospreys
Hollywoodbets Sharks -4.5 vs Leinster (assuming Leinster field a similar team, I seriously have no idea here)
Benetton -6.5 vs Cardiff
Glasgow Warriors -9.5 vs Emirates Lions
URC WEEK 13 WRAP
Posted 23 March 21h15
Below we will briefly review last weekends matches as well as take a look at the latest table, outright betting and fixtures.
I will return later tonight with my handicap projections.
Week 13 Results
Cardiff 20–17 Lions - cap was -4.5 Cardiff but started -2.5 as Lions were backed. Blog pick under 48.5 arrived, 13/2 HT/FT play narrowly missed
Glasgow Warriors 28–25 Munster - handicap was -5.5 but there was -7.5 Warriors at kickoff. The over 27.5 Warriors points landed the blog pick (just)
Sharks 35–34 Zebre - Sharks started -25.5 and were lucky to win. Blog pick of -22.5 never a runner
Benetton 21–18 Edinburgh - Benetton started -9.5 having opened -3.5 but they needed a last minute try to win. Blog pik under 47.5 landed.
Bulls 21–20 Leinster - when bookies finally priced up Bulls were -10.5 but started -8.5. They won with a last minute penalty and blog pik Leinster over 22.5 missed.
Scarlets 17–29 Stormers - Stormers started -2.5 which was the blog pick and it landed, perhaps not as easily as the score suggests
Dragons 30–34 Ulster - Dragons started +6.5 and the blog pick under 47.5 points was well off.
Ospreys 43–40 Connacht - Ospreys started -5.5 and won a thriller, the blog pick of Ospreys 1-12 at 7/5 landed
Updated Log after Week 13
Updated Betting at WSB
