Week 5 of Super Rugby Australia gets going on Friday and we take a look at both matches from a betting angle.
Outright Betting update, previous week’s prices in brackets – Click here to bet
Brumbies 11/20 (9/20)
Reds 7/2 (9/2)
Rebels 4/1 (6/1)
Waratahs 22/1 (12/1)
Western Force 200/1 (40/1)
There has been very little change to the Outright Betting with the Brumbies drifting slightly to 11/20 from 9/20, the Reds have been clipped to 7/2 from 9/2 and the Rebels to 4/1 from 6/1. The Waratahs and Western Force are given no chance by the bookmakers. The Western Force are 1/14 to finish rock bottom.
WESTERN FORCE v REBELS – Click here to bet
Western Force and Rebels have both been handicapped by the fact that they haven't had home games this season and the sides meet in Sydney this week.
The Force were well beaten by the Brumbies 24-0 last week in Sydney and they are without a win in their opening 3 matches. They did at least compete more effectively in their opening games beating the handicap against the Reds in Brisbane and the Waratahs in Sydney.
The Rebels impressed me last week when they beat a well backed Waratahs side 29-10 in Sydney. They had opened slight favourites in the betting, but the money came for the Waratahs, however the Rebels never looked like being beaten. If the Rebels win this game they will most likely assure themselves of a spot in the Top 3 and a crack at the Finals.
These sides haven't met since 2017 when the Force won 31-22 in Perth and all, but one of their 9 meetings, had been decided by a single point margin.
BETTING
Western Force 33/10
Draw 35/1
Rebels 1/4
Handicap: Western Force (+10.5) at 9/10, Rebels (-10.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Winning Margin, Rebels Under 12.5 points at 17/10
As mentioned above this clash is historically tight and while the Rebels should win this, the Force are capable of keeping the score line respectable.
BRUMBIES v REDS – Click here to bet
The Brumbies put in their most impressive performance of the season to date when they beat the Force 24-0 and they still have a perfect record in this competition. The week before they had to come from behind to narrowly beat the Waratahs in Sydney and they beat the Rebels by 8 points in Canberra in their opening match.
The Reds return from a bye and they are still undefeated with 2 wins and a draw. They beat the Force by 7 points at home and drew 18-18 with the Rebels at a neutral venue and their opening round win in Brisbane over the Waratahs was by 6 points.
The Brumbies have an excellent recent record over the Reds in Canberra, winning 6 on the trot and the last 5 meetings between the sides in Canberra have seen some high scores with all of the games delivering over 50 points and 3 of the 5 matches reaching more than 60 points.
BETTING
Brumbies 7/20
Draw 28/1
Reds 12/5
Handicap: Brumbies (-7.5) at 9/10, Reds (+7.5) at 9/10
Suggested Bet: Handicap, Brumbies (-7.5) at 9/10
The Brumbies started the season a bit slower than I expected, but they showed signs last week that they are coming to their best form and I think they will be too strong for the Reds in Canberra. This could be a game to wait for the Total Points lines given the high scoring history between the sides.
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
