Tuesday’s UCL semi final second leg action comes from the Emirates and the match up between Arsenal and Atletico Madrid is currently locked up at 1-1.
Arsenal
Last week’s first leg in Madrid saw Arsenal opening the scoring with a Viktor Gyokeres penalty just before half time but a second half penalty for Atletico was converted by Julian Alvarez and the game finished 1-1. Both sides had chances to win it with Atletico hitting the woodwork and VAR played a part in over turning a potential second spot kick for Arsenal. Atletico were awarded 6 corners to Arsenal’s 1 and the Madrid side registered 4 shits on target to Arsenals 2.
An injury time goal from Kai Havertz gave Arsenal a 1-0 lead from the quarter final first leg against Sporting in Lisbon. The return in London finished without a goal and Arsenal edged their way through to the semi finals 1-0 on aggregate. The Gunners came up against Bayer Leverkusen in the Ro16. They needed a late penalty to rescue a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany before goals from Eze and Rice in the return in London delivered a 2-0 win on the night and 3-1 victory on aggregate.
Arsenal topped the League Phase winning all 8 matches scoring a total of 23 goals whilst conceding just 4 and their stand out results included home wins over Atletico (4-0) and another semi finalist Bayern Munich (3-1).
At the weekend Arsenal’s 3-0 home win over Fulham saw them go 6 points clear at the top of the EPL standings although Man City have 2 games in hand (the first of which is at Everton on Monday night). The goal difference and goals scored by each side are very similar and the title race looks set to go down to the wire.
Atletico Madrid
Atletico came through a real humdinger of a quarter final with Barcelona with a 3-2 aggregate win. They won the first leg away from home 2-0 with goals from Julian Alvarez and Alexander Sorloth after Barca had been reduced to 10 men. In the return Barca were 2-0 up in 24 minutes but Lookman pulled a goal back on 31 minutes for Atletico and there was no further scoring, 2-1 to Barca on the night but Atletico went through.
Atletico won their first leg of their Round of 16 clash with Spurs 5-2 in Madrid and although they lost the return in London 3-2 on the night they went through 7-5 on aggregate. Atletico had to take the play off route to qualify for the Round of 16 and after drawing the first leg of their clash with Club Brugge 3-3 they ran out 4-1 winners in the return in Madrid. In the league phase
Atletico won 4, drew 1 and lost 3 of their League Phase matches and they faded in the later rounds to finish 14th.
In La Liga Atletico are a distant fourth but that would be good enough to qualify for the UCL next season. They were 2-0 winners at Valencia at the weekend and the gap to fifth placed Betis remains at 10 points with 4 rounds of matches to go.
The Betting:
In the outright betting to win the UCL this season Sportingbet have Arsenal at 9/4 and Atletico Madrid at 8/1. Bayern are favourites at 15/8 and PSG are 9/4 and they will settle their tie (which PSG lead 5-4) on Wednesday night.
To qualify for the final under any method over the two legs Arsenal are 3/10 and Atletico have been boosted to 5/2
Regulation Time Markets
To win this second leg Arsenal are 0.63/1 a draw is 29/10 and Atletico are 17/4
A total of 3 goals or more in this second leg is priced at 17/20 and it’s 9/10 for both teams to score.
Note odds quoted are subject to change
The Verdict:
The Gunners are now clear favourites but I think there is scope for a twist or two in this one. After giving this one a fair amount of thought without really settling on a confident play I will take my chances with both sides finding the net in regulation time.
Bet: Both teams to score? Yes at 9/10 with Sportingbet
Note odds quoted are subject to change