The UCL quarter finals conclude on Wednesday Bayern Munich host Real Madrid and Arsenal have home advantage against Sporting
Arsenal v Sporting
An injury time goal from Kai Havertz gave Arsenal a 1-0 lead from last week’s first leg in Lisbon. Sporting had been pressing for a winner of their own before Havertz struck and both sides hit the woodwork but the bulk of the game was pretty tight, there was just the 1 yellow card (for Sporting) and Arsenal were awarded 4 corners to Sporting’s 3.
The Gunners came up against Bayer Leverkusen in the Ro16. They needed a late penalty to rescue a 1-1 draw in the first leg in Germany before goals from Eze and Rice in the return in London delivered a 2-0 win on the night and 3-1 victory on aggregate. Arsenal topped the League Phase winning all 8 matches scoring a total of 23 goals whilst conceding just 4 and their stand out results included home wins over Atletico and Bayern.
At the weekend Arsenal lost 2-1 at home to Bournemouth in the EPL, their lead over Man City in the title race has been cut to 6 points and City who have a game in hand will host the Gunners in Manchester this coming Sunday. Throw in an EFL Cup Final defeat to Manchester City (2-0) and FA Cup exit, 2-1 at Championship side Southampton and 4 potential trophies has now turned into a max of 2.
Sporting turned their Round of 16 match up with Bodo Glimt around to take their quarter final place. They lost the first leg 3-0 in Norway but won the return in Lisbon 3-0 to force extra time where they found 2 more unanswered goals to win 5-0 on the night and 5-3 on aggregate. Sporting qualified automatically from the League Phase with a record of 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. They won all 4 of their home games including a visit from PSG, defeats came away to Napoli and Bayern, they drew away to Juventus and a 3-2 win in Bilbao earned a direct route into the Ro16.
Sporting are currently second in Portugal’s top flight, 5 points behind Porto but they do have a game in hand.
The Verdict:
Sporting turned their Ro16 tie with Bodo around and from a bigger deficit than this but they have to travel for this second leg and their away record in the UCL is nothing special. Arsenal’s recent form outside of this competition is becoming alarming and I’m going to settle for an interest in Gyokeres anytime.
Bet: Anytime goalscorer Gyokeres at 11/8 with Sportingbet
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid
Bayern are in a strong position after a 2-1 win in the first leg in Madrid last week. A goal towards the end of the first half from Luis Diaz and another at the start of the second from Harry Kane put Bayern in control. Kylian Mbappe halved the deficit for Real on 74 minutes but there was further scoring It was a lively contest with Real registering 9 attempts on target to Bayern’s 8 whilst the Bundesliga were awarded corners to Real’s 8. Bayern picked up 4 of 5 yellow cards shown on the night.
Bayern breezed into the last 8 after dismantling Atalanta, winning the first leg in Italy 6-1 and the return in Munich 4-1. They made short work of automatic qualification for the knockout rounds, winning 7 and losing just the 1 (to Arsenal who topped the log) to finish clear in second spot. Aside from the 3-1 defeat to Arsenal, Bayern scored at least 2 goals in every match including a 2-1 win away to PSG but they kept just the 2 clean sheets.
Bayern are 11 points clear of Dortmund at the top of the Bundesliga standings, they have lost just 1 league game all season and have already rattled up 105 goals.
Real won both legs of their Round of 16 match up with Manchester City, taking control with a 3-0 home win the first leg thanks to a Valverde hat trick and a brace from Vinicius Jr helped them to a 2-1 win in Manchester. Real were ninth in the League Phase and took their chances in the play offs where they came through a very stormy clash with Benfica with a 1-0 away win in the first leg and a 2-1 victory in the return. They won their first 3 League Phase matches and 5 in total but defeats at Liverpool, at home to Man City and also at Benfica prior to the play offs saw them slip out of the top 8.
Real were held to a draw at home to Girona in La Liga at the weekend and they have fallen 9 points behind Barcelona in the title race.
The Verdict:
Even taking a different set of circumstances into account with the tie only having reached “half time” looking at that corner count from last week I’m happy to row in with Bayern to be awarded 6 or more.
Bet: Bayern total corners over 5.5 at 21/20 at Sportingbet
Note, odds subject to change