6 Nations Round 1 + other rugby 5-8 Feb

A good weekend for me with both newsletter plays, Lions overs and Sharks ML landing 

This week the 6 Nations gets going a tournament I always enjoy 

Here are the current handicaps - I will get the blog going with some long term plays tomorrow 

• France v Ireland: France -12.5 | Points 50.5
• Italy v Scotland: Scotland -9.5 | Points 48.5
• England v Wales: England -29.5 | Points 54.5

Come on, Wales +29.5 is too high!  The All Blacks could not exceed that handicap only a few months ago and Wales scored 4 tries against them. So we will score against these over rated Orcs! 

Looking forward to the Six Nations!

Also think the Wales cap too high, but hoping for an early England try and take around +32.5 in-running for safety.  Leaning towards Italy +9.5. Had it not been for a long injury list (Capuozzo, Todaro, Negri, Vintcent, Allan, Lucchesi, Riccioni), I would've given the Italians a solid winning chance. I feel a losing bp is still well within Italy's reach. 

France v Ireland still undecided. Irish also coping a long injury list and news from the camp not really inspiring. Loosehead props Porter, McCarthy and Boyle all out. Keenan, Hansen, Nash, Baird, Jimmy O'Brien and Henshaw all ruled out.

Big talking point for the French is the return of their talisman Dupont with Fickou, Penaud and Alldritt being left out. Flament unavailable for personal reasons. Backup 9 Lucu ruled out with injury. 

Early bet: Italians often start like a house on fire and then lose it somewhere in the second half. HT/FT Italy/Scot @ 9/2 with WSB

Looking forward to see the experts picks here on the forum. 

WSB with early betting out for the First Round of Super Rugby 

Highlanders +7.5 v Crusaders
Waratahs +5.5 v Reds
Drua -8.5 v Moana
Blues +2.5 v Chiefs
Force +5.5 v Brumbies

Early stand outs for me: Tahs, Chiefs and Force to win

 

Guys I am not going to do a blog for the 6 Nations but will post updated in the match previews - on that note the Thursday start is an interesting one - The Handicap show will basically be a pre-match build up to France v Ireland 

The Mossman a confirmed starter and I will be picking his brain for early Super Rugby thoughts 

England line on the rise

Jamesons money not enough to keep the line stable/down

The Orc players and punters are always over confident ....

If it keeps moving I'll be raiding my grandkids savings accounts lol

PS, in the last 10 years the Orc victories over Wales at Twickers have had the margins of 4,14,6,14,3,4,2 and 2 points.

'morning

Agree, Wales +30.5 is tempting and I'll play it. Teams are only together for a couple of weeks so knocking out the lights is not a given in first outing.

On the outrights, I like:
Over 94/95 tournamrnt tries (108 last year)
Italy Over 87.5pts (106 last year)

Player of the Championship
If Matthieu Jalibert can hit anything like his Bordeaux form then the 22/1 @ PP is worth a few beers (16/1 elsewhere)
Ireland to finish 4th @ 4/1 - Injuries/ rebuilding. A loss to the big 2 away and 1 loss v the others makes that a reasonable punt

Top Tournament point scorer
Ramos is unbackable @8/15 - 4/7
George Ford is available @9/2 Boylesports

Best of luck all!
 

Here are the latest Six Nations Round 1 lines: 

• France v Ireland: France -14.5 | Points 50.5
• Italy v Scotland: Scotland -9.5 | Points 47.5
• England v Wales: England -30.5 | Points 53.5
  
  Question: To those who subscribe to the forum/thread have you been getting notifications? I haven't 

Ireland v France 1st bet Posted 

Under 50.5 at 9/10 

The Handicap will cover 6 Nations and a look at Super Rugby and I guess will also build up to the 1st match which starts just after 

Click here to set a reminder on You Tube 

Hi Brent I normally untick notifications but testing it now by leaving ticked.

this France Ireland game - if it was like Sunday afternoon I’d be all over the overs. But thurs night - hmm I’m not sure, might wait until conditions latest closer to kick off. Pitch looks great, they’ve really sorted out the issues there it seems. 

Theo Attisogbe player of match @ 33/1

Just a speculative interest but having replaced Penaud on wing there will be some extra focus and if he has a decent game could see him being a front runner in market. 

Thanks South - all going well you will get this 

I will have a small unit on Italy and Ierland both to win outright at 23/1

Welsh team announced - LRZ at 15. I'll think we'll do OK - for the 1st hour. Not sure of the bench. The Orc will be bringing on the likes of Pollock and we cant match that.

So if its close on the hour I'll be cashing in!

Small interest anytime drop goal at 5/1 

France  v  Ireland

My evening beers going on

Ireland over 2.5 tries  @  16/10

Looking forward to the show tonight. 

Missed out on the +14.5 on Ireland, but reckon +13.5 still a good line with rain predicted. I read that this is the biggest cap Ireland are giving up in the Six Nations since 2006. Will join Southpaw on the Attissgobe MOTM and small stake on Attissgobe (17/2) and Depoortere (13/1) First Try Scorer.

After seeing both starting lineups, I am starting to like Italy more and more to beat the Scots @ 3/1. Took +8.5 as well. HT/FT as mentioned earlier this week still an interesting bet. Will add Italy/Italy @17/4 and pray Italy leads at half-time and that it doesn't end up in a draw . Still better odds taking both HT/FT options than taking Italy outright to lead at half time.

Interesting stat: Scotland have won all of their previous 5 opening matches in the 6N (Eng 2021, 2022, 2023, Wales 2024, Italy 2005) 

can't watch game live so just a few bigger prices for me -

player match = attissogbe @ 33/1
last try = gourges @ 16/1
france 11-20 win margin @ 9/4

Its under 47.5 now - cant go unders .....