URC Round 7, Gallagher Prem, Top 14 + Other Rugby 19-21 Dec

The Champions Cup steps aside for the URC and other leagues to continue 

It is local derby time in the URC and I will have a goo at handicapping the fixtures below in the next hour or so 

Cardiff Rugby v Scarlets
Leinster v Ulster
DHL Stormers v Lions
Benetton v Zebre Parma
Glasgow Warriors v Edinburgh
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls
Ospreys v Munster
Dragons RFC v Connacht

My handicap projections for the URC 

Cardiff Rugby -8.5 v Scarlets
Leinster -15.5 v Ulster
DHL Stormers -9.5 v Lions
Benetton -9.5 v Zebre Parma
Glasgow Warriors -8.5 v Edinburgh
Hollywoodbets Sharks -3.5 v Vodacom Bulls
Ospreys +5.5 v Munster
Dragons RFC +6.5 v Connacht

Caps are out and it looks like a week short of value in URC. 

My caps are nearly identical to yours Brent, and the bookies are no different

Pablo i like vannes to cover the -7 spread against beziers tomorrow night , last game before the Christmas , a big blow out. What do you think ? 
 

BigRassie wrote:

Pablo i like vannes to cover the -7 spread against beziers tomorrow night , last game before the Christmas , a big blow out. What do you think ? 
 

I was thinking Béziers +7 because Malie is back and may start but Béziers injury list in the backline is pretty big, plus Vannes kept some key players resting last week and they will start tomorrow. If I have to bet I'd go Vannes -7, may be s blowout but nothing yet.

Which I took was SF -5.5 @1.90 2u, my expected line is 15 points favourites against Racing so value to me in the home side.

pablo wrote:

BigRassie wrote:

Pablo i like vannes to cover the -7 spread against beziers tomorrow night , last game before the Christmas , a big blow out. What do you think ? 



 

I was thinking Béziers +7 because Malie is back and may start but Béziers injury list in the backline is pretty big, plus Vannes kept some key players resting last week and they will start tomorrow. If I have to bet I'd go Vannes -7, may be s blowout but nothing yet.

Which I took was SF -5.5 @1.90 2u, my expected line is 15 points favourites against Racing so value to me in the home side


 

Thanx guys, they both look like my spreadsheet, so I'm in.
Only difference  I took Vannes by 9 or more on Pokerbet @ 2.50
CHEERS 

Final live airing of The Handicap tonight at 21h00 and I am joined by The Admiral and The Oracle 

Click here to watch or set a reminder on You Tube 

Well that has already got me really hacked off this weekend and its Thursday!

I had over 44.5 points and needed 5 points in the last 14 mins - Vannes should have scored 4 times in that period.......

Blog updated with 1st bet 

Cardiff win and under 46.5 at 33/20 
 

Leinster v Ulster bet added 

Under 49.5 at 0.93/1 

Going to wait for teams and points lines before getting involved on the other games and the final newsletter of 2025 should be out this evening 

Gone Ulster +10.5 @10/11 :-o

Off to a decent start with unders in the Leinster game - thought Ulster would win at one point. 

Today looks an unders one for me and bets to follow 

Blog updated with plenty of unders plays 

Under 52.5 Lions game at 9/10 
Under 46.5 Glasgow game 0.92/1 
Under 47.5 Bulls game 0.94/1 
Under 47.5 Ospreys game 0.99.1 

I just cant bring myself to do an unders bet so the winnings from yesterday are on over 52.5 in the Stormers game.

I’m against the grain today but it’s big crowds and I’m hoping defences are loose, I like try or points overs in both SA games. Hunting for best lines now and will post shortly. 

Some mixed fancies on the site today , Stormers game first , a South African derby , points total looks about right , 54.5 and under I would be unders , but 52.5 has me twitching . I'll have at look at the pitch if the pictures are kind enough to give us a  look. I also think 14.5 is a little high on the cap and will go Lions plus in the meantime. 

The Italian derby I'm not interested in at all. 

In the Top 14 , it's in Paris where their local derby takes place with Stade taking on Racing. Stade have started the season well and are being coached well , however I always have a soft and mostly frustrated feel for Racing , they are overly disappointing but I think this cap I'll take plus 10.5 .

That's it for now 

over 52.5 @ 10/11 in cape town

Jeeeezzzz very poor rugby skills on show - a try either side of 25 mins of reset scrums......

Well played jameson, never in doubt 

comfortable overs in the end in cape town.

Sharks OVER 20.5 @ 5/6. think this is a couple pts light and i'd expect 3's to be taken under order from forwards to have a breather.