Currie Cup Week 4, Greatest Rivalry Tour, NPC & Other Rugby (3–10 August)

The Currie Cup was a mixed bag for me in Week 3, with nice-if somewhat narrow-wins on Griquas outright and the unders in the Lions v Blue Bulls game.

The Sharks let me down, though, and although the newsletter bet landed ( click here to get my free weekly newsletter ), with Pumas +14.5 completing the double, I regretted taking the Pumas over 22.5 points in what turned out to be a low-scoring and scrappy affair.

The Currie Cup Week 4 betting blog is now up, and I'll be adding my projected handicaps early in the week.

There's also been plenty of hype surrounding the Greatest Rivalry Tour, which kicks off on Friday night with New Zealand taking on the Stormers. We'll have a full preview of that match, the first of an eight-match tour.

There's also Japan v Australia to look forward to, along with the second week of Bunnings NPC action in New Zealand.

Let's put our heads together, find a few angles, and hopefully beat the bookmakers this week.

Currie Cup blog updated with handicap projections 

Griquas +2.5 v Lions Blue Bulls +7.5 v Pumas Sharks XV -9.5 v Boland Stormers XXIII +5.5 v Cheetahs 

I suspect bookies will disagree with a few 

North Harbour vs Counties Manukau

Both coaches are talking about playing running rugby.
The conditions are good, no wind, just cold.

Bet: Over 60.5 points @1.82

Stormers +34.5 (WSB) is the main early handicap line for the All Blacks game on Friday, team sheets below 

Stormers: 15 Warrick Gelant, 14 Seabelo Senatla, 13 Ruhan Nel (captain), 12 Jonathan Roche, 11 Leolin Zas, 10 Yaqeen Ahmed, 9 Imad Khan, 8 Evan Roos, 7 Hacjivah Dayimani, 6 Deon Fourie, 5 Connor Evans, 4 Adré Smith, 3 Neethling Fouché, 2 André-Hugo Venter, 1 Vernon Matongo. 

Replacements: 16 JJ Kotzé, 17 Ntuthuko Mchunu, 18 Sazi Sandi, 19 Ruan Ackermann, 20 Keke Morabe, 21 Wandile Mlaba, 22 Dewaldt Duvenage, 23 Wandisile Simelane. 

New Zealand Updated: 15 Josh Moorby, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Anton Leinert-Brown, 11 Rieko Ioane, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Anton Segner, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 4 Fabian Holland, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 George Bower. 

Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Ollie Norris, 18 Siale Lauaki, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Ethan Blackadder, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Josh Jacomb, 23 Caleb ClarkeWallace


Sititi out, Segner in at 7, Lakai moves to 8.


 

I see Boks are 18 pts favourites against Argentina…!! My first thought was just too big, I cannot recall Argentina getting a cap like this in many many years. But they have been poor this season, and missing a few players this weekend. 

might look at their points overs rather than cap, but does feel big. 

Stormers v New Zealand Preview is up 

I really like this one 

All Blacks over 48.5 at 5/6 

i was a bit slow out the blocks on tonights game, line on nz pts now out to 51.5 generally.

i see BB will be expected to take conversions until Jacomb comes on, he was poor off the tee in super rugby so am going go take the tries overs as don't expect 3's to be taken.

NZ over 7.5 tries @ 10/11

tomorrow -

arg v sa -
was originally thinking argentina plus but side is rotated quite a bit. Points line around 60 pts, is a day game there so at moment leaning total pts over 60.5.

jap v aus - 
supposed to be very hot and also threat of rain around kick off, so will watch conditions for now on this one, but expect both sides to play attacking.





 

I can't resist , was going to wait for at least 15 minutes of game time but I've taken plus 35.5 Stormers and Unders 66.5 Totals ....... 

Very nicely done Coil! Transparent confident calls, done how it should be. 

My first proper bet since nations rugby break was miles off. NZ nowhere near as good as I expected. 

Try to recover tomorrow. 

Cheers South , was a good evening in the end . sadly I leaked a fair amount back to the ponies grrrr . 

Tomorrow morning is tough, people talking up Australia and therefore was hoping for a reasonable plus , sadly it's only 15.5 , if it had been 19 0r better I would have a right go. I don't think Australia are that good but Japan are hardly world beaters. 

Will post CC fancies tomorrow but early doors I'm with the Unders in Kimberley at 61.5 for a start 

Well played Coil (and Hanrick on X) and I am joining South in fighting back today. New Zealand were a real disppointment.

Problem is I am on the opposite side of the fence again and the Currie Cup bog updated with

Over 62.5 at 0.86/1 in Kimberley 

I am on Japan +16.5 - JPN v Aus Preiew here 

and Boks to win by 11-20 - Arg v SA preview here 

Off for my favourite meal of the day - Brunch but have squeezed a bet in on the Bulls v Pumas game 

Bulls win at 5/2 

Also on over 62.5 in Kimberley. Think it will get frantic 

Also on the over 61.5 Griquas Lions, @ 5/6 best price I can get. 

With Brent on Japan +16.5 in those conditions. Two H2H since 2019 have also seen single digit winning margins for the Wallabies. All three Japan's Nations Championship matches went Under 58.5 points although agonizing no points were scored in the last 30 minutes of their match against France. Australia's three Nations Championship matches all went over 60 points. 

Argentina v SA - Under 60.5 points. One has to go back to 2017 for the last time these two combined for over 60 points when playing in Argentina. In fact, it has only occurred twice since 2012 (2014 and 2017). Argentina missing something like 21 players due to injury and suspension but they more often than not lift themselves for the occasion.

Against the grain a bit here -

Australia over 36.5 pts @ 10/11

Have nailed my scrotum to the mast , unders at 60.5 and plus Puma's 18.5 for a slightly lesser stake .  I'm all in. 

Wish I had your confidence coil. Was lining up a big strike this game but after a good weekend last week I’ve had a poor day so confident is shot, so will keep the max stake for sharks all blacks game.

Boks over 39.5 pts @ 5/6 main bet.

1st try Grobelaar @ 12/1

 

Coil you are on fire! 

I enjoyed that game and credit to Argentina they were really up for that