Euro 2024, COPA and International Football June and July

mackem wrote: Euro's start on Friday and will dominate the next few weeks, still lots of internationals and Africa WCQ's beforehand but reckon we just have one football thread for the remainder of June and July.

Haven't had a look at outrights for the Euro's but will do so as previews go up.

All football tips, outright's or individual matches are most welcome here

Hi Chris, can I use this topic to share my Copa America bets as well?

COPA Outright

The Copa America tournament starts on June 21 and takes place in the US. There are 16 teams split into four groups, and the top two progress to the quarterfinals. I like Uruguay to do well at the COPA this year, and under Marcelo Bielsa, they are a lethal attacking team. In the current WC qualifying, Uruguay beat Argentina and Brazil, and I don't see any reason they can't beat them again at this COPA.

Uruguay are in Group C alongside USA, Panama and Bolivia and should win their group. Should they top the group, they will play the second-place team in Group D (Brazil, Paraguay, Columbia and Costa Rica). Based on the current form, that should be Columbia, and I believe Uruguay will beat them in the last eight. A possible semi-against Brazil and a final against Argentina are on the cards, but as I mentioned above, Uruguay are a different team under Bielsa. They have the weapons to trouble both sides in a knockout game. Darwin Nunez, Fede Valverde, Ronald Arujo, Jose Gimenez, Rodrigo Bentacur, Manuel Ugarte and Facundo Pellistri provide a strong core to the starting 11, and all have adapted well to how Bielsa plays and expects his team to play. Add in the old head of Luiz Suarez, who provides the experience to this young team and is capable of coming on in the final 30 minutes to impact a game.

Uruguay to win the 2024 Copa America @ 6/1

I am also taking a semi-final treble for the three major team International events in June/July. With the quality of that England EURO squad, they should progress to the semis. Hopefully, Southgate allows the team to play on the front foot. The Proteas are doing well so far at the T20 WC and should step up another gear once the Super Eights are in the WI. That is when their batters should start dominating.

South Africa, England and Uruguay all to make the semi-finals at the T20 WC, EURO's and COPA @ 55/10

Not much after the cricket this pm.

African WC Qualifiers

Treble
Uganda D/C into wins for Egypt + Burkina Faso @ 36/10

EURO 2024 Outrights

24 teams, so I will take my chances on 2 teams for outright bets. I didn't bother looking too indepth into the knockouts bracket as that would wreck my brains for hours. Too many permutations to consider, so in the end I have based my two outright bets on two factors: squad depth and managerial experience.

As Chris mentioned in last weeks non existent topic, when do these guys get a break? Surely some if not most of these players are running on empty. Having a massive squad with quality in every position is vital if you want to go far this Euros. Step forward Portugal, arguably the nation with the best squad depth this tournament.

Portugal can fill two competitive starting lineups that could trouble most teams. The squad combines youth and experience and many of their players are in good form. They have a manager who will be more attacking than previous ones, and with some luck they could go all the way. Ofcourse there is the Ronaldo factor, and yes the team do play better without him, but I don't think he will hinder the team as much as previous years. This is his last chance at another international trophy and hopefully he puts the team ahead of his own needs.

Portugal to win the Euros @ 9/1

Okay now for the managerial experience part. Ralf Rangnick has shown that he is still a world class manager after his controversial stint at United. As Austria manager he has united the fanbase, and made the fans and players believe that the team is good enough to compete. They have a squad that knows each other well, that has good squad chemistry and harmony. There are no big egos, and everyone is fighting for the same things.

Austria have been exceptional under Rangnick, and have beaten some top teams. Yes they are in the Group of Death with France, Netherlands and Poland, and that is probably why you can get 80/1 on them. However, they have a manager who can outwit, and outperform his counterparts. Rangnick has transformed this Austrian team and his tactics are always spot on. They will be hard to beat, and can even reach the next round with 4 points or if lucky enough with 3 points. If they do reach the knockout stages, then they are dark horses to go far in the tournament (ideal odds to hedge come the quarters, semis). Managerial experience has proven vital in past Euros, and Rangnick has shown he has what it takes to continue thriving with his tough to beat Austrian side.

Austria to win the Euros @ 80/1

I'm with Naidoo on Portugal Outright

Also have Ronaldo Top Scorer 14/1

And on Opening day I like Germany Score Both Halves @Evens

Just a heads up to all the footy punters, browsing through Sportingbet and noticed they have introduced early payouts, same as how Bet365 have it.

If you take a pre match bet and the team you backed goes two goals ahead, the bet will be automatically settled as a winner.

Bit of a weird one but I am taking over 3.5 bookings in Germany vs Scotland at 9/10.

The referees have been told that only the captain may talk to the ref during the game and that any other player who approaches the ref should be booked. When this happened in the Premier League at the beginning of the season there were 109 bookings in the first 20 games, an average of 5.45 a game.

The ref for the opener is Frenchman Clement Terpin, who averages 3.9 cards per game in the Champions League. I expect him to enforce this rule extremely strictly as was the case when it was introduced into the Premier League before it was largely forgotten halfway through the season.

Bit of a weird one but I am taking over 3.5 bookings in Germany vs Scotland at 9/10.

The referees have been told that only the captain may talk to the ref during the game and that any other player who approaches the ref should be booked. When this happened in the Premier League at the beginning of the season there were 109 bookings in the first 20 games, an average of 5.45 a game.

The ref for the opener is Frenchman Clement Terpin, who averages 3.9 cards per game in the Champions League. I expect him to enforce this rule extremely strictly as was the case when it was introduced into the Premier League before it was largely forgotten halfway through the season.

dholliday wrote: Bit of a weird one but I am taking over 3.5 bookings in Germany vs Scotland at 9/10.

The referees have been told that only the captain may talk to the ref during the game and that any other player who approaches the ref should be booked. When this happened in the Premier League at the beginning of the season there were 109 bookings in the first 20 games, an average of 5.45 a game.

The ref for the opener is Frenchman Clement Terpin, who averages 3.9 cards per game in the Champions League. I expect him to enforce this rule extremely strictly as was the case when it was introduced into the Premier League before it was largely forgotten halfway through the season.

Thank you for the heads up. If you have an account with Betxchange can get 13/10

Thanks

Thanks Darren and Kt. Will definitely be following on these and will hopefully add some player yellow cards, for card merchants who love an angry chat with the ref... Bruno Fernandes....

Will be watching the tournament in Ireland ( might pop back to England for the final if they get there ), so not had the same enthusiasm going into this one as usual. Like Germany to go far with the home advantage + return of Kroos, so will chuck them in with France and England, who will probably be on the other side of the draw.

Germany v France final @ 12/1
Germany v England final @ 10/1

EURO 2024 - Germany vs Scotland (Friday)

Scott McTominay 2+ fouls @ 15/10 (Sunbet)

dholliday wrote: Bit of a weird one but I am taking over 3.5 bookings in Germany vs Scotland at 9/10.

The referees have been told that only the captain may talk to the ref during the game and that any other player who approaches the ref should be booked. When this happened in the Premier League at the beginning of the season there were 109 bookings in the first 20 games, an average of 5.45 a game.

The ref for the opener is Frenchman Clement Terpin, who averages 3.9 cards per game in the Champions League. I expect him to enforce this rule extremely strictly as was the case when it was introduced into the Premier League before it was largely forgotten halfway through the season.

This looks very decent given that the Scots accumulated 19 yellow cards in their 8 Euro qualifiers and 39 cards were dished out at an average of 4.87 per game when involving the Tartan Army in the same amount of games. .

Over 2.5 bookings at 8/10 with WSB and Hollywoodbets looks a cracker

as i'm on a rugby betting holiday of sorts, i'm going to focus on the football and F1 next few weeks. Tonight i'm going with a regular favourite market -

GERMANY over 16.5 shots @ 8/10 (boyles)

The line is generally 17.5 elswhere and 16.5 is @ 4/6 or 1/2 with other firms, so a small bit of value.

They are playing a more attacking brand of football, but being the home game opener of tournament, and with a big munich crowd behind them, i think this is within range.

EURO 24 OUTRIGHTS

Winning Group
B @ 4/1

Group E Straight
Belgium/Slovakia @ 9/2

Tournament Most Goals
Portugal @ 6/1

Tournament Least Goals
Poland @ 13/2

Leading Goal Scorer for
England Foden @ 13/2

Going with what Southpaw mentioned about the shots, Scotland goal keeper, Angus Gunn is not too bad.

Small play as I'll be watching with one eye open. Angus Gunn over 3.5 saves @ 1.83 on Sportsbet. Super juiced on 365 @ 1.61and no where else offering it.

Hope to get some UFC tape watch later on tomorrow .

Germany v Scotland

Going to run with that cards tip - I like the logic. I think the Scots are a hard bunch. When you have had a unit like Mctominay bearing down on you for an hour or so you are inclined to get a little bruised and tired

Scotland to score in the second half - Yes @ 19/10

Bookie Basher wrote:

dholliday wrote: Bit of a weird one but I am taking over 3.5 bookings in Germany vs Scotland at 9/10.

The referees have been told that only the captain may talk to the ref during the game and that any other player who approaches the ref should be booked. When this happened in the Premier League at the beginning of the season there were 109 bookings in the first 20 games, an average of 5.45 a game.

The ref for the opener is Frenchman Clement Terpin, who averages 3.9 cards per game in the Champions League. I expect him to enforce this rule extremely strictly as was the case when it was introduced into the Premier League before it was largely forgotten halfway through the season.

This looks very decent given that the Scots accumulated 19 yellow cards in their 8 Euro qualifiers and 39 cards were dished out at an average of 4.87 per game when involving the Tartan Army in the same amount of games. .

Over 2.5 bookings at 8/10 with WSB and Hollywoodbets looks a cracker

Massive thanks to Darren for the cards insights and also BB for this beauty of a line at WSB and Hollywood, easy 1st half winner

Nice start to the tournament last night on shots and great shout Darren on the bookings.

Today, not a big bet like last night but like -

Szoboszlai over 2.5 shots @ 12/10

Pleased there is cycling, rugby and golf today because the EURO 24 card looks like under 30 shots in total all three matches.

May consider Scamacca in the goal scoring markets this evening but for now just a few beers

Draws by Hungary + Spain into the Italy win @ 14/1

Another weird one.

Taking Italy -2.5 corners handicap at 1.90

Italy are currently ranked 9th in the world rankings whilst Albania sits 66th and haven't played any team ranked within the top 20 in almost two years. As a result, I expect Albania to sit deep and try and soak up as much pressure as possible, looking to hit Italy on the counter. Much like Germany last night, you would expect Italy to have the lion's share of possession as they look to find gaps in what may prove to be a stubborn Albanian defensive line.

Italy has averaged around 8.2 corners in their last 5 games, whilst Albania has only averaged 4.2 against much weaker opponents. I would expect the Italians to get a similar number to their average whilst the Albanians may struggle somewhat to get into the Italian's half consistently.

Braai not ready yet/family here/wine going down in litres so kindly avoid

Italy v Albania

Bet builder
Italy over 1.5 goals/ATGS Scamacca/Cards over 2.5 @ 28/10

Euro Sunday 16 June

Backing some over priced player foul lines for all the games today at Sunbet.

Cody Gakpo (Netherlands) 2+ fouls @ 14/10

Pierre Hojberg (Denmark) 2+ fouls @ 13/10

Alexsandar Mitrovic (Serbia) 2+ fouls @ 18/10

And a main bet for the England game tonight. I don't think Southgate is that naive to play Alexander Arnold in midfield. He is not a midfielder surely he should listen to the advice from Klopp. Declan Rice is not a holding midfielder who can do the job on his own. At Arsenal, Arteta tried that and it did not work, so he adapted and played Jorginho/Partey alongside Rice.

If Southgate goes with just Rice as a holding midfielder, then England are in trouble in midfield, even if Serbia do sit deep. Serbia have the attacking weapons to trouble England on the counter, and the English midfield could be in trouble, if Rice does not have a partner sitting alongside him to defend more rather than create attacks. I like BTTS here in tonights featured game.

Serbia vs England BTTS @ 11/10

Netherlands + England @2.26

Netherlands (-1.0) @1.92

Bet builder: Netherlands win + Poland over 1.5 cards @2.30

Netherlands and over 1.5 goals at 1.85 on Sportingbet.

Also like over 2.5 Goals + Over 3.5 England corners this evening.

Over 1.5 goals in all three matches @2.31

Also on the over 1.5 goals but by

Netherlands/Denmark an England @ 44/10

In play: Taking Netherlands to win. I have been impressed with the Dutch, they have created great chances and I think they should go on to win this comfortably so I think 1.75 represents good value at HT.

Taking Denmark -2.5 corners against Slovenia. Hopefully the corners don't let me down today...

These sides met in Euro qualifiers with Denmark dominating possession in both games, winning the corner count 18-4 over the home & away fixtures.

Sesko is a top young talent for Slovenia and quite accurate on shots

8/11 for over 0.5 shots on targets seems generous (boyles)

Small bet on over 3.5 Cards in the Serbia v England game at 1.90

Danielle Orsato averages 5.1 cards per game and I expect Serbia to be combative and try and ruffle England's feathers a little.

at risk of giving back some good weekend winnings after that last bet just missed, I have to take this. The shots lines have been coming in on overs and @ 22.5 I think this is in range

Eng serb over 22.5 shots @ 8/10

mackem wrote: I'm enjoying this tournament more than I thought I would. Although they are in a tough group I'm liking Austria as lurker, thinking about backing them to reach the semi's

Monday's Euro 2024 preview and plays

goodforthegame.co.za/Euro-Football/euro-...review-and-tips.html

Romania v Ukriane, Ukraine to win at 9/10 with Sportingbet

Belgium v Slovakia, Belgium to score in both halves? (yes) at 14/10 with BoyleSports
De Bruyne to have 2 or more shots on target, was 22/10 now 29/10 with Sportingbet

Austria v France, Double Chance Austria or Draw at 1.43/1 with BoyleSports

Yes Chris, all of a sudden I don't feel foolish with my Austria 80/1 pick. They are a solid team with no egos, bookies are underestimating because of their group. If they can even go through by finishing third, they should trouble any team.

As for the enjoyment yes its a brilliant watch so far, from a betting view I went 0/4 yesterday so....

Anyway its still small stakes as its the first round of games so a speculative acca for today's games:

Ukraine and Belgium wins into Austria/France Draw @ 11/1 (Sportingbet)

Taking the Sportingbet acca of Dovbyk, Lukaku and Mbappe all to score at 9/1

Also like Belgium to win & have the most corners at 1.95

Romania vs Ukraine

Bet: Romania under 3.5 corners @2.00

Congrats to all those punters who made the Romania/Slovakia double @ 23/1. Once again proof that managers are by far the most important ingredient in team sport. Lets be honest - Tedesco and Rebrov? Losers. This vital fact was posted on these boards by a very young Hanrick around 10 years ago - The facts have not changed. 75% of the trophies won by Man Utd were won by two managers.

The late match this evening does have two good managers so here's my bet

France v Austria

BTTS - Yes and over 2.5 cards @ 17/10

Can't buy a bet on this tournament. Also my De Minaur tennis banker went south while I was walking the dogs this afternoon. No idea what happened.

Markets to avoid this evening - double

Turkey over 1.5 cards - Portugal over 1.5 match goals @ 13/10

Portugal -1 Asian Handicap at 1.81 on Pokerbet

Fancy a 2-0 or 3-1 win.

Germany vs Hungary

Germany -1.5 @1.80
Germany TT over 2.5 goals @2.06

Croatia v Albania

Not normally my market but Croatia managed 16 shots against Spain. Surely they can manage one better against Albania

Croatia shots over 16.5 @ 9/10

Croatia vs Albania

Albania has struggled to generate shots against better opposition. Since the start of 2023, they have played seven games against nations in the top 50 in the FIFA rankings and they have not had 10 shots.
Against Italy a few days ago they had 8 shots.

Bet builder: Croatia win + Albania under 10.5 shots @2.05

Quill wrote: Croatia vs Albania

Albania has struggled to generate shots against better opposition. Since the start of 2023, they have played seven games against nations in the top 50 in the FIFA rankings and they have not had 10 shots.
Against Italy a few days ago they had 8 shots.

Bet builder: Croatia win + Albania under 10.5 shots @2.05

Of course Albania will now have more shots than what we bet for Liverpool