Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other

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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #1 by The Vann
Just two early notes.
That Deceuninck Quick-Step line-up looks very good for the team competition should they so choose. Sadly no betting out locally yet.
Trek confirmed an hour or so ago that Nibali will be riding. Over the past 10 years he has ridden 7 times and podiumed on 6 of those. He has been out for six weeks with a wrist injury but looked fine at Tirreno before the training crash. He also likes going into Grand Tours slightly undercooked and improving all through.
Giro 2021 Out Right
1-3
Nibali @ 9/1
Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by The Vann.
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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #2 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Fausto Masnada looks in great form and tends to go well (9th last year) so I'm on ew at 200/1

Few pennies for one of my favourite riders too Harm Vanhoucke of Lotto Soudal ew @300/1


Taken Atila Valter (FDJ) for King of the Mountains ew @150/1

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Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.
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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #3 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Giro Notes.
Had a look at the route/teams/books etc and only have two comments.
In SA the books usually drop that top 10 option once a tour starts so need to take that up front. Would really appreciate it if they carry it into the tour.
Secondly, the climbs on stages 4/6/9 are not tough enough for large gaps on the GC so Overall/KOM punts can probably be held back until stage 13. Stage 14 is the first big challenge.
My Out Rights
Nibbles explained above. Last year Knox finished 37m-41s down. Of that time 26m-58s was shed on stage 18 when he clutched. He bounced back on the final stages and finished 14th.
Except for Groenewegen Caleb eats all the other sprinters for breakfast and he can climb a little vis Two seconds at Milan San Remo
INEOS won the team comp last year with two Italians in their ranks. They also lost Thomas on stage 3 and Puccio on stage 15. This time they have three locals.
Giro Out Rights
The beers go to
Added more Nibbles Top 3 at 11/1 so now @ 10/1
Top 10
Knox @ 12/1
Points Winner
Ewan @ 20/1
and Two bets
Top 10
Nibali @ 22/10
Team Winner
INEOS @ 4/1
Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by The Vann.
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2 years 11 months ago #4 by mackem
Couch Critic's Giro outright plays in this preview

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...s-outright-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
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2 years 11 months ago #5 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I am apparently odd-man-out on Evenepoel. I know the guys a bit of a pratt - even his countryman and the GOAT Eddie says so - and Remco confirmed this by saying Groenewegen will get a hostile reception from the peloton - he should know at age 21 and in his first Grand Tour.
Several cycling pundits are picking him to win so I am whacking a few beers on an out right double
Giro Out Right
Evenepoel/Yates - Bardet/Sivikov @ 57/10
I see Will Newton is pulling for Bardet and I think on form he is the best at over 20% gradient in the last km - so not a bad choice.

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2 years 11 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Giro Stage 1
8km ITT is just too short to to get serious about on the punting side so taking a double and a long shot for a few beers. Plus, it's Grand Tour cycling so take a few days to study the form.
Vlasov/Pozzovivo - Almeida/Bettiol @ 23/10
and a podium possibility
1-3
LL Sanchez @ 66/1
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2 years 11 months ago #7 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other

The Vann wrote: Giro Stage 1
8km ITT is just too short to to get serious about on the punting side so taking a double and a long shot for a few beers. Plus, it's Grand Tour cycling so take a few days to study the form.
Vlasov/Pozzovivo - Almeida/Bettiol @ 23/10
and a podium possibility
1-3
LL Sanchez @ 66/1


Admit it guys, None of you have ever managed to pick a winner or podium contender who has finished stone last - in this case 184th from 184 riders. Do you laugh or do you cry?

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2 years 11 months ago #8 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Painful!


Dont believe Paddy Bevin should be 500/1 today; pretty sure hes gonna be sprinting and going for the PTS jersey.

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2 years 11 months ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Made the double yesterday so trying another today. Looks like a bunch sprint with the main contenders a little short so taking smalls on the places.
Giro Stage 2
Evenepoel/Almeida - Yates/Bernal @ 11/2
and a few 1-3
Bevin @ 50/1
Pasqualon @ 50/1
Pellaud @ 150/1

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2 years 11 months ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Howzit lads,

I am a bit late to the Giro party due to work commitments but had a look at the route and wow it is a beaut

Look forward to getting involved and I reckon we have a double digit winner - currently looking at Carth, Landa and Buchmann - leaning Carthy

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2 years 11 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Cracking stage today - a small 0.25u each way play on Jorgenson at 150/1

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2 years 11 months ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Weather is predicted to be crap so have to take a specialist - no Ion so Soler gets the nod
Giro Stage 3
Nizzolo @ 15/2
Ulissi @ 33/1
Soler @ 80/1

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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #13 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Im hoping Matteo Moschetti makes it over the lumps and bumps for the sprint @250/1

If not also on young Alessandro Covi of UAE who should be a threat @80/1

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Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.

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2 years 11 months ago #14 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
One of those days where it's probably worth looking down the list and having a stab as the expected wet weather could lead to all sorts of chaos.

Mohoric @ 33/1
Vendrame @ 40/1
Gallopin @ 200/1 (wind that clock back old boy!)
Conti @ 200/1

Consonni over Bevin (I don't think Bevin is fighting fit yet) @ 12/10

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2 years 11 months ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Anyone have Taco yesterday? What a win

Small interest today as I cannot watch

0.5u Remco at 8/1

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2 years 11 months ago #16 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Nil for me but Tony G almost produced for Couch.
187km Into a head wind with bad weather and no little ramps for a decent break to form today. I'm going with a few beers up front and may take a run in-play.
Giro Stage 4
Win
Goossens @ 40/1
Izzagirri @ 80/1
De Marchi @ 100/1
Honore @ 300/1

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2 years 11 months ago #17 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I like Gorka if the weather is terrible.

I reckon the big boys will be walking on egg shells today as it could prove to be one of those stages that you can lose the race but you can't win it. I don't think anyone really wants pink so early either so I won't be surprised to see the break get the job done.

If it does come down to GC I reckon we will see DQS and Ineos play the team game. Evenpoel and Sivakov to go early and Almeida and Bernal to hold on to the coat tails and then win the sprint if it all comes together. Bernal will love the shortish steep climbs (not long enough to stuff up his back) and he has a very hand sprint so he would be my pick - I'll just throw him into a few multies for the weekend.

My other darts:
Giovani Visconti @ 33/1 - Lost a big chunk of time today so think he is eyeing a break soon.
Simon Carr @ 66/1 (Ditto above)
Jay Hindley @ 80/1
Taaramae @ 200/1
Caruso @ 200/1
Cataldo @ 400/1

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2 years 11 months ago #18 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Took some early prices on guys that sat up in the last stage, hopefully they make the break

Kobe Goosens @66

Simon Carr @50

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2 years 11 months ago #19 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Oh for fuck sakesss! Really started to dream for a while there.

Close with De Marchi as well Vann.

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2 years 11 months ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other

Couch Critic wrote: Oh for fuck sakesss! Really started to dream for a while there.

Close with De Marchi as well Vann.


10km out I was convinced one of us would get lucky - We both ended up with our Mother-in-Laws and mine is not an oil painting.:sick:

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2 years 11 months ago #21 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Pan flat and bunch sprint. Taking a double for an interest in the finish
Giro Stage 5
Nizzolo/Viviani - Evenepoel/Yates @ 27/10

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2 years 11 months ago #22 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Gutted for Landa! Showed plenty of gritt on a tough stage in tricky condition yesterday and then gets knocked out inside the final 10km on a pan flat sprint stage. The highs and lows of cycling right there.

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2 years 11 months ago #23 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Yeah very disappointed for him, I thought this might just be his year

Mollema 12/1 for me tomorrow

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2 years 11 months ago #24 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I see theres a 40km descent tomorrow before the final climb so feel obliged to back a Basque rider!


Gorka Izagirre @100/1

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2 years 11 months ago #25 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Added Ciccone at 16/1

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2 years 11 months ago #26 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Ineos won't drive hard without Sivakov I don't think (still plenty of road left for Bernal to fire up his challenge), Jumbo don't have incentive or the team and Bahrain now also out of the mix. BikeX don't have the team to drive and DQS will know with Evenpoel and that last TT they basically have pink already so it's up to the others to mount a challenge and try and edge out some time where they can. Isarael can't contain a break on their own so to me this seems a break stage with the lumpy early roads also in favour of this.

Bring out the darts: (The Jeff & Jan show for me today)
Jefferson Cepeda @ 25/1
Geoffrey Bouchard @ 66/1
Jan Tratnik @ 100/1
Jan Hirt @ 200/1

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2 years 11 months ago #27 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Throwing in Ciccone who could win from the peloton but I am also leaning towards the break. Can't see the point of GC teams chasing down all the breaks for a possible stage win when the finish is just not difficult enough and you would be sprinting from a bunch of 20 or so.
Giro Stage 6
Ciccone @ 16/1
Cepeda @ 25/1
Izagirri @ 80/1
Caicedo @ 125/1
Petilli @ 125/1

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2 years 11 months ago #28 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other

The Vann wrote: Throwing in Ciccone who could win from the peloton but I am also leaning towards the break. Can't see the point of GC teams chasing down all the breaks for a possible stage win when the finish is just not difficult enough and you would be sprinting from a bunch of 20 or so.
Giro Stage 6
Ciccone @ 16/1
Cepeda @ 25/1
Izagirri @ 80/1
Caicedo @ 125/1
Petilli @ 125/1


Obviously the break only stays if there is a Movistar rider so adding
Rubio @ 150/1

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2 years 11 months ago #29 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Echelons on a mountain! INEOS very clever

Took Bernal @7/1

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2 years 11 months ago #30 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I see WSB still carrying Top 10 - Good for them. Odds are sadly out so I expect any bets will be voided eg Carthy 5/2 or Bilbao 16/1?
Flat stage today with small 300m ramp 1.5km out. Not enough to prevent sprinters catching up - But - what if an ITT rider gets there with a 5 sec lead? Often seen in last 3-4km.
Giro Stage 7
Cavagna @ 200/1
Evenepoel @ 250/1
None of the match bets appeal today

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2 years 11 months ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
A few 0.5 unit darts tomorrow

Bouwman 40/1
Vendrame 66/1
Fiorelli 100/1
Narvaez 100/1

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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Looks like a break day. Weather in my neck of the woods absolute rubbish so will risk a few extra beers on the break up-front today as I expect to be inside all day.
Giro Stage 8
De Gendt @ 33/1
Rubio @ 50/1
Goossens @ 80/1
Fiorelli @ 100/1
Petilli @ 200/1
Ghebreigzabhier @ 400/1
Brandle @ 750/1
Taken a little 1-3 on the last three.
Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by The Vann.

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2 years 11 months ago #33 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
We are half way through the Giro sprint stages and are now approaching the break away stages where I believe the points jersey will be decided. I have been quite impressed by this rider and I think a podium is well within his reach as the usual Nizzolo/Viviani types are just not climbing as well.
Points Jersey
1-3 Cimolai @ 6/1

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2 years 11 months ago #34 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Im on Vendrame today as well @66

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2 years 11 months ago #35 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Climbs today perfectly suited for the Ganna express and Ineos Train!


Max Bet Egan Bernal @9/1

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2 years 11 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Nice job getting the early Bernal price KC - into around 6/1 now

Personally I think the break will stick again today and firing some familiar darts - a bit bigger than normal because had a good weekend on the rugby - also making my 1st move into the outright markets

Outright Winner
2 units Carthy at 12/1
1 unit Buchmann at 66/1

Stage 9
2 units Mollema at 12/1
1 unit Bettiol at 33/1
0.5 u Bouman at 66/1
0.5u Narvaez at 150/1

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2 years 11 months ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Also going with the break today. If a GC finish then agree with KC - Bernal looks like the pick.
Giro Stage 9
Win
de Marchi @ 28/1
Vanhoucke @ 40/1
Bouchard @ 66/1
e/w
Jorgenson @ 200/1
Fiorelli @ 250/1

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2 years 11 months ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Giro in Play
59km
Bennett @ 15/1

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2 years 11 months ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Wow what a stage - great win Bernal and KC but my heart broke for our 2 66/1 shots caught with 500m too go

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2 years 11 months ago - 2 years 11 months ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Had high hopes for our two long shots until Quick Step tried to see what damage they could cause in the tail wind 15km out. Knocked around 40sec off the lead in under 3km which made all the difference. Good pick from KC.
Nothing further on the out rights today but keeping an eye on a possible Bardet Top 3. Will need to decide before Stage 14.
Giro Stage 10
Win
Groenewegen @ 16/1
And in the unlikely event that the peloton misjudge the break a few beers on
Win
Pellaud @ 200/1
Marengo @ 500/1
Last edit: 2 years 11 months ago by The Vann.

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2 years 11 months ago #41 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
A serious stage tomorrow and I will be watching it after work only

1 u Bettiol at 14/1
0.5u Tratnik 125/1 Bouwman 150/1 De Marchi 1501/

2 units Evenpoel/Bernal at 5/4

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2 years 11 months ago #42 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Ill be trying to avoid the spoilers until after work too!


Hoping George Bennett @150/1 gets in the break, took second in Il Lombardia this year.

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2 years 11 months ago #43 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I honestly can't see anything but a Bernal show. Is in superb form, has a mountainbiking bakcground and looked good at Strade B last time out. Ineos have also shown that they are in the mood to cause chaos.

Price is very short but I can't see things going any other way so a nibble on Bernal at 9/2 and if I see an in running opportunity when it's clear no break can make it then I might add a bit more hopefully at around 2/1.

Fly young man fly!!

Match Bet:
Soler over Caruso @ 27/20
Double - Bettiol over Guerreiro & Valter over Vervaeke @ 13/10

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2 years 11 months ago #44 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Unless the break is tiny I don't see any reason for INEOS to chase it down. The finish is just not hard enough to gain good time and the little technical downhill before the last km looks too dodgy to risk full taps for GC contenders. As Couch points out one can always take Bernal in-play.
Giro Stage 11
Win
Ulissi @ 16/1
Bouwman @ 50/1
e/w
Visconti @ 125/1
Gavazzi @ 400/1
Sepulveda @ 400/1
and hopefully a double stake return treble
Fortunato/Hindley - Bardet/Formolo - Vlasov/Yates @ 33/10

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2 years 11 months ago #45 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
I am not taking sides here but I always check the odds before off and Evenepoel/Bernal @ 14/10 at Sunnies is too long.

Evenepoel/Bernal - Bilbao/Nibali @ 33/10

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2 years 11 months ago #46 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Very frustrating when key domestiques are not giving free reign to win a cracking stage and are instead used to maintain a Top 10 finish for the likes of Tobias Foss.


Rein Taaramae @125/1 for me today

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2 years 10 months ago #47 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Wow what a stage although not a good one betting wise for me with Remco taking some body shots - Buchmann at least in from 66/1 to 16/1

2 small darts today and half a unit on

Bennett 22/1
De Marchi 50/1

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2 years 10 months ago #48 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
So young Evenepoel experienced his first ever days racing after a rest day - did not come out as planned. Amazing job from Almeida to keep him in contention. Had high hopes for my man Gavazzi in the break and he looked top 5 good until 10km to go when the lights went out.
I reckon today has to be break and a large one at that. To the best of my knowledge my record for crap picks is Nil in a break of 39. I hope that record is not broken today
Giro Stage 12
Win
De Marchi @ 40/1
Lafay @ 50/1
Cataldo @ 125/1
e/w
Vervaeke @ 125/1
Sepulveda @ 300/1
Ghebreigzabhier @ 600/1

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2 years 10 months ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Nice round Zip from Vann in the break so we need to pick.
In-play 120km to go
Honore @ 9/1

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2 years 10 months ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : w/c 3 May - Giro d'Italia and Other
Thankfully had upfront bets yesterday. If not I could have picked 8 from the 16 in the break and would not have got Vendrame. Stiffs on the Bennett pick Brent - hate it when a bet goes down because of terminal stupidity.
Has to be a bunch sprint today but the old punting instincts always go - What If?
Giro Stage 13
Win
Groenewegen @ 7/2
and a few beers
Pellaud @ 300/1
Marengo @ 400/1
Rivi @ 750/1

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