Tennis - Warm-up Tournaments before Wimbledon

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #1 by Quill
We could find some interesting matches at these tournaments.

Three matches caught my eyes at a quick glance for tonight.

Halle:
Federer vs Ivashka
Korda vs Bautista-Agut

Queen's Club
Norrie vs Ramos

Federer is a clear favourite against just about anyone outside top 10 when playing on grass.
Bautista-Agut's preferred surface is grass (grass and hard courts), and at his last appearance at Wimbledon he lost in the semis to Djokovic (1-3).
Ramos is a clay-courter.

Bet: Federer + Bautista-Agut + Norrie @2.05
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Quill.

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1 month 1 week ago #2 by Quill
Halle

Goffin vs Moutet

Thompson vs Altmaier

Goffin plays well on grass, he has gone 29/22 on the surface so far in his career and has two finals, both lost, in 's-Hertogenbosch 2015 and Halle 2019.
At the last Wimbledon he lost in the quarters to Djokovic.

Thompson already played a couple of matches on grass in Stuttgart last week, which certainly gives him an advantage over Altmaier. The Aussie is relatively more experienced on the main tour as well as on grass. His best result on the main tour in a grass-court event was in 's-Hertogenbosch in 2019, where he reached the final, after defeating Alex de Minaur and Richard Gasquet.
This is Altmaier's first match on grass since 2017.

Bet: Goffin + Thompson @1.85

Add Federer to the above to bring the odds to 2.15.
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1 month 1 week ago #3 by Quill
Halle:

Ivashka vs Federer

The betting suggests that Federer should easily win in 2 sets (2-0 @1.50).
However, other markets suggest that Federer will have a hard time beating Ivashka, a player ranked in the 90s.

Bet 1: Federer Total Games Under 12.5 @2.23
Bet 2: Total Match Games Under 21.5 @2.03

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1 month 1 week ago #4 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tennis - Warm-up Tournaments before Wimbledon

Quill wrote: Halle

Goffin vs Moutet

Thompson vs Altmaier

Goffin plays well on grass, he has gone 29/22 on the surface so far in his career and has two finals, both lost, in 's-Hertogenbosch 2015 and Halle 2019.
At the last Wimbledon he lost in the quarters to Djokovic.

Thompson already played a couple of matches on grass in Stuttgart last week, which certainly gives him an advantage over Altmaier. The Aussie is relatively more experienced on the main tour as well as on grass. His best result on the main tour in a grass-court event was in 's-Hertogenbosch in 2019, where he reached the final, after defeating Alex de Minaur and Richard Gasquet.
This is Altmaier's first match on grass since 2017.

Bet: Goffin + Thompson @1.85

Add Federer to the above to bring the odds to 2.15.


Large slice of luck today in that the "retired injured"does not affect me as I missed the off in the Goffin match so took Thompson/Fed/Bautista-Agut acca instead at 5/4 :woohoo:

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1 month 1 week ago #5 by Quill
Halle:

Korda vs Bautista Agut

Korda has not yet played a tour-level match on grass since he played in the "Boys" events 3 years ago. He is unlikely to get any more grass match play beyond this.
Bautista-Agut's preferred surface is grass (grass and hard courts), and at his last appearance at Wimbledon he lost in the semis to Djokovic (1-3).

Somehow the betting suggests that this will be a longer than necessary match, which I find hard to accept (hope I won't get a spanking here from the bookies).
Small stakes.

Bet 1: Bautista Agut 2-0 @2.20
Bet 2: Under 22.5 games @1.90
Bet 3: Agut Total Games - Under 12.5 @2.12
Bet 4: Korda Total games - Under 11.5 @2.10

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1 month 1 week ago #6 by Quill
Federer, just retire from tennis and save yourself the embarrassment! :angry:

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1 month 1 week ago #7 by Quill
Spanish Double

Queen's Club

Lopez vs Marchenko

Lopez is another fine Spanish player on grass, alongside Agut.

Bautista-Agut + Lopez @2.05

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1 month 1 week ago #8 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tennis - Warm-up Tournaments before Wimbledon

Quill wrote: Halle:

Korda vs Bautista Agut

Korda has not yet played a tour-level match on grass since he played in the "Boys" events 3 years ago. He is unlikely to get any more grass match play beyond this.
Bautista-Agut's preferred surface is grass (grass and hard courts), and at his last appearance at Wimbledon he lost in the semis to Djokovic (1-3).

Somehow the betting suggests that this will be a longer than necessary match, which I find hard to accept (hope I won't get a spanking here from the bookies).
Small stakes.

Bet 1: Bautista Agut 2-0 @2.20
Bet 2: Under 22.5 games @1.90
Bet 3: Agut Total Games - Under 12.5 @2.12
Bet 4: Korda Total games - Under 11.5 @2.10


Bets like this remind me of my only Hole in One in the late seventies which came off a friendly tree - You just can't believe you made 2 from 4 on this match :silly:

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1 month 1 week ago #9 by Quill

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote: Halle:

Korda vs Bautista Agut

Korda has not yet played a tour-level match on grass since he played in the "Boys" events 3 years ago. He is unlikely to get any more grass match play beyond this.
Bautista-Agut's preferred surface is grass (grass and hard courts), and at his last appearance at Wimbledon he lost in the semis to Djokovic (1-3).

Somehow the betting suggests that this will be a longer than necessary match, which I find hard to accept (hope I won't get a spanking here from the bookies).
Small stakes.

Bet 1: Bautista Agut 2-0 @2.20
Bet 2: Under 22.5 games @1.90
Bet 3: Agut Total Games - Under 12.5 @2.12
Bet 4: Korda Total games - Under 11.5 @2.10


Bets like this remind me of my only Hole in One in the late seventies which came off a friendly tree - You just can't believe you made 2 from 4 on this match :silly:

Unbelievable indeed.
I kept swearing at Agut and then I saw the outcome of these bets :silly: :lol:

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1 month 1 week ago #10 by Quill
Rublev + Zverev + Shapovalov @2.08

Rublev + Zverev in Halle, Shapovalov at Queen's Club

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1 month 1 week ago #11 by Quill
Halle

Humbert vs Querrey

For me Querrey is synonymous with grass when we talk tennis.
Querrey's performances on grass have been much better. If we look only at Wimbledon in the past few years, he goes deep into the second week. Plus the win-loss ratio at the other grass tournaments clearly show that Querrey is the better player on this surface.
He had a poor run on the tour until last week, when he reached the semifinal in Stuttgart, on grass.
He is a runner-up of ATP Eastbourne 2019 and former semifinalist at Wimbledon and he has had fine results on grass throughout his career.

The odds for him to beat Humbert, who is no pushover, indeed, are too high, so I'm going to take the bookies up on this offer.

Bet: Querrey @2.48

A somewhat safer bet is Querrey +1.5 @2.08.

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1 month 1 week ago #12 by Quill
Another treble for me tonight, across Halle and Queen's Club.

Rublev + De Minaur + Struff @2.34

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1 month 6 days ago #13 by Quill
Berrettini vs Murray

Murray beat Paire in London, but it was Paire, who is playing abysmally right now, with no desire and intent, having won only 2 matches out of 18 this year.
Berrettini is already an accomplished player on grass, even with a completely missing 2020 grass-court season. He won the title in Stuttgart, reached the semis in Halle, and made it to the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2019. It’s hard to imagine Murray even getting a set.

Zverev vs Humbert

Humbert is just happy to be in this match after surviving a tough first-round test against former Wimbledon semifinalist Sam Querrey. The 31st-ranked Frenchman failed to serve out the match from 40-15 up late in the third set but ended up beating Querrey 4-6, 7-6(4), 7-6(5).

Berrettini + Zverev @1.88

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1 month 6 days ago #14 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tennis - Warm-up Tournaments before Wimbledon
If you run your eye down the ATP Top 20 rankings there is around 7-8 grass courters and half of them are currently producing rubbish. I reckon if you are ranked 21 and grass is probably your best surface you could get to the semi's before facing a real obstacle. So is anyone ranked 21 good on grass and reasonably priced?. You better believe it

Wimbledon Out Right
e/w
Auger Aliassime @ 100/1

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1 month 6 days ago #15 by Quill

The Vann wrote: If you run your eye down the ATP Top 20 rankings there is around 7-8 grass courters and half of them are currently producing rubbish. I reckon if you are ranked 21 and grass is probably your best surface you could get to the semi's before facing a real obstacle. So is anyone ranked 21 good on grass and reasonably priced?. You better believe it

Wimbledon Out Right
e/w
Auger Aliassime @ 100/1

Wow!
And he has just beaten the King of Grass!:cheer:

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1 month 5 days ago #16 by Quill
WTA Berlin

Pegula vs Azarenka
Azarenka already defeated two very good players, who return very well, Kerber and Petkovic.
Pegula has not had good percentages on her serve and she benefitted from a retirement in the first round.
I think that Azarenka serves better and returns better than Pegula, and this will help her gain advantage during games and put some more pressure on Pegula.

Samsonova vs Keys
Samsonova is for the first time in a WTA quarter-final, whereas Keys already has a title on grass, in Birmingham 2016.
Both players serve very well, but Keys is a better returner and moves better on court. She has just beaten no. 1 seed Sabalenka in the previous round, and this should give her confidence, and with her experience and better quality shots she should beat a qualifier who is outside top 100.

Bet: Azarenka + Keys @2.20

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1 month 5 days ago #17 by Quill
ATP Queen's Club

Norrie vs Draper

Draper won two matches so far, defeating Sinner and Bublik, both in top 40. What is interesting for my bets here, is that he won both matches in 2 sets that each went to a tie-breaker. He played 4 sets - 4 tie-breaks.
In an indoor tournament last year in the UK, Draper beat Norrie in 2 sets, both tie-breaks.

Bet 1: Over 22.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Over 0.5 tie-breaks in match @2.00
Bet 3: First Set Total Games Over 10.5 @2.75

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1 month 4 days ago #18 by Quill
Halle and Queen's Club

Berrettini + Rublev + Auger-Aliassime @2.87

Come on guys, you must win your matches! :cheer:
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1 month 4 days ago #19 by Quill
Berrettini + Auger @2.30

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1 month 4 days ago #20 by Quill
I found some time to write a few things.

Rublev and Basilashvili met 4 times so far, with the head-to-head series tied 2-2. They have never faced each other on grass.

From the end of 2020 (Hamburg, Vienna, and St. Petersburg) through start of 2021 (Rotterdam), Rublev won four ATP-500 tournaments in a row. The in-form Russian has not yet dropped a set this week and now has another title on his mind. For Basilashvili this is a steep step up in competition against Rublev, compared to his opponents so far.

Auger-Aliassime and Humbert met two times so far, both times on grass.
They just met in the Stuttgart quarters last Friday, when Auger-Aliassime prevailed 7-6(5), 7-6(8) on his way to another runner-up performance (the 21-year-old Canadian is now 0-8 lifetime in ATP finals). He has gotten right back in gear to beat Hubert Hurkacz, Roger Federer, and Marcos Giron so far in Halle.
Having won his last four sets 6-3, 6-2, 6-3, and 6-2, Auger-Aliassime is supremely confident right now. He has not been pushed to a tiebreaker in Halle and has dropped only one set to Federer.

Humbert, on the other hand, has battled through three consecutive three-setters against Sam Querrey, Alexander Zverev, and Sebastian Korda. Based on current form and last week’s result, Auger-Aliassime should win this.

Berrettini has become a legitimate title contender every time he steps on a grass court. His big, physical game seems to have been tailor-made for lawn tennis. He took out Dan Evans in straight sets on Friday. Evans is a tricky opponent on grass, particularly as he was playing in front of the home crowd. After a tight and entertaining first set, the Italian ran away with the match.
His serve and his powerful forehand will give him the edge against most players on grass.
De Minaur has played well enough this week to make this one entertaining for the fans, but the No. 1 seed’s form should prove too much.
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1 month 3 days ago - 1 month 3 days ago #21 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tennis - Warm-up Tournaments before Wimbledon
Humbert v Rublev

Humbert has shown real tenacity to make the final and he is playing well on the grass. These players last met in October on hard and Rublev won in 3 sets - 32 games. I think Humbert gives him a good match and even has a chance to win

Match games over 23.5 @ 19/20

and double with Queen's final

Humbert + Berrettini @ 26/10
Last edit: 1 month 3 days ago by The Vann.
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1 month 3 days ago - 1 month 3 days ago #22 by Quill
ATP Mallorca, grass

Thompson vs Andujar
Struff vs Mannarino

Andujar rarely plays on grass, as he prefers clay.
Thompson played well these past two weeks in the grass tournaments in Stuttgart and Halle. In Stuttgart he pushed De Minaur to three sets, while in Halle he gave a good account of himself when he lost to Rublev in two sets, winning the aces count 6-4 and breaking Rublev once.

Struff is a powerful server and he likes fast surfaces.
Mannarino has not shown much in the past two weeks. He lost in the first round in Stuttgart, then in the second round at Queen's Club.

Bet: Thompson + Struff @1.92
Last edit: 1 month 3 days ago by Quill.

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1 month 3 days ago - 1 month 3 days ago #23 by Quill
Mallorca

Munar vs Sandgren

Sandgren likes fast surfaces. He also has a much better serve than Munar and a powerful forehand.
Munar prefers clay. He plays only 10-15 matches a year on other surfaces.
Sandgren has two quarter-finals at the Australian Open and a 4th round at Wimbledon.
Munar played only 6 matches on grass his entire career, all lost and he won only one set.

Sandgren should win this with relative ease.

Bet 1: Sandgren 2-0 @2.37
Bet 2: Sandgren -2.5 @1.99
Last edit: 1 month 3 days ago by Quill.

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1 month 2 days ago #24 by Quill
Mallorca

Vesely vs Caruso
Vesely plays very well the serve and volley game on grass. He is difficult to be defeated in the first round, when the grass is still fresh and the ball slides fast. He reached the 4th round at Wimbledon in 3 of the last 4 editions.
Caruso doesn't really play on this surface, he is not in good form, he has 5 consecutive first round defeats on clay.

Lopez vs Kuhn
Lopez won 4 of his 7 titles on grass. At 39 he is still very good on the surface.

Querrey vs Carballes Baena
Baena has scored only one main draw win on the grass so far in his career, in Antalya 2019.
Querrey reached the semifinal in Stuttgart two weeks ago and on grass against Baena he should win it.

Bet: Vesely + Lopez + Querrey @2.26

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1 month 9 hours ago #25 by Quill
Eastbourne

Fucsovics vs Kwon 

In the previous round Fucsovics won a hard fought 3-set match against Bedene. He showed lots of composure winning two tie-breakers.
Kwon lost to a player ranked 1133 in the qualifications, then got a lucky loser spot as well as a bye in the first round, thanks to the late withdrawal of Reilly Opelka.
I think his luck runs out here.

Bet 1: Fucsovics -2.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Fucsovics 2-0 @2.37

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1 month 9 hours ago #26 by Quill
Mallorca
Thompson vs Klein
Thompson is playing well these days and has had some good wins on grass this season.
Klein has never played on grass before this week, and he got a few big wins already. However, the players he defeated are not grass players, Lajovic, Istomin and Cuevas earning their money mostly on clay.
I think with his experience and some grit and determination, Thompson will get through.

Bautista Agut vs Travaglia

At the last Wimbledon, Bautista-Agut made it to the semifinals.
Travaglia struggles through qualifications and doesn't always get even to the first round, and he hardly plays a few matches on grass every year.

Eastbourne
De Minaur vs Broady

De Minaur won the title in Antalya (grass) this year and he reached the semifinals at Queen's Club last week (lost to Berrettini).

Bet: Thompson + Bautista-Agut + De Minaur @2.25

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1 month 8 hours ago #27 by Quill
Eastbourne Doubles

Nielsen/Skugor vs Ram/Salisbury

Skugor and Nielsen are going through some difficult times. Nielsen changed 7 partners this season, while Skugor is with his 4th different partner.
Also in terms of form they are not doing very well, Nielsen having 2 wins in 16 matches this year, while Skugor has 6W-11L.

Ram/Salisbury aren't doing great either, but they form one of the most well gelled teams on tour. They are now into their third season together, and despite some poorer results this year, they still got to the final at the Australian Open, and Rome, played semifinals in Acapulco, Miami and Barcelona.
This tournament is a good opportunity for them to gain some confidence before Wimbledon, where they will probably be among the favourites.

Bet: Ram/Salisbury + Bautista-Agut + De Minaur @2.09

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4 weeks 1 day ago #28 by Quill
ATP Eastbourne

Sonego vs Bublik

On the main tour, Sonego leads this head-to-head series 2-0. He should be able to make it three wins over Bublik tonight. Both guys are dangerous on fast surfaces, but Sonego has a more reliable serve and is far more reliable from a mental standpoint. It should also be noted that the Italian is 5-0 in total sets in his two most recent matches against Bublik, 3-0 at the French Open last year, and 2-0 at the Paris indoor event in November.

Bet: Sonego @2.03

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4 weeks 1 day ago #29 by Quill
Medvedev + Agut + De Minaur @2.29

Medvedev + Agut + Ivashka @2.73

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4 weeks 1 day ago #30 by Quill
ATP Eastbourne

Ivashka vs Kwon

In qualifying and the Eastbourne main draw combined, Kwon has won just a single match. He lost in the first round of qualifications, got a lucky-loser spot thanks to a flurry of withdrawals and even had a bye in the first round, and then beat Marton Fucsovics in three sets.
Ivashka beat Alistair Gray in straight sets in the first round, and Gray is the one who defeated Kwon in qualifying. Ivashka then defeated Popyrin to reach the quarterfinals.
That is a stellar result, one that suggests he shouldn’t have much trouble with the Korean player.

Bet: Ivashka -2.5 @1.83

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4 weeks 1 day ago #31 by Quill
Mallorca

Lopez vs Mannarino

This should be a high-quality contest between two very good grass-courters.

Bet 1: Over 23.5 games @1.90
Bet 2: Over 2.5 sets @2.37

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4 weeks 9 hours ago #32 by Quill
Mallorca
Medvedev vs PC Busta

Medvedev's preferred surface is grass.
Prior to this week, the Spaniard had won only two matches on the surface in his career and both of those wins came in one week in Antalya 2019.

Medvedev is clearly the better player in these conditions.

Eastbourne
Purcell vs Sonego

Purcell is a surprise appearance in the semifinals here, as he got in as a Lucky Loser. He then took advantage of several withdrawals, Gasquet, Norrie and Opelka to get into the main draw. Sonego has had a very good season so far. In the previous rounds he defeated Millman and Bublik in straight sets, playing very good tennis. He is way more experienced at this level, having beaten many top players. Sonego should be the fresher of the two, as he played two short matches so far, whereas Purcell played 5 consecutive 3-setters, including the qualifications.

Kwon vs De Minaur
Kwon joins Purcell as the second lucky loser in the semifinal of ATP Eastbourne this week.

This has been a solid grass season for Alex de Minaur. He has got six wins over the last three weeks, which earned him a quarterfinal appearance in Stuttgart and a semifinal in London last week. Prior to that he won the grass tournament in Antalya.

The Aussie #1 is the better player on grass, and he is far more experienced at this stage of tour-level events.

Bet: Medvedev + Sonego + De Minaur @1.88

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