Tennis : w/c 11 Oct - Indian Wells + Other

No Stand Out match on the footie this evening so will watch some Ruud v Harris. Don't fancy a bet on this match so looking at Dimitrov to carry on the good form and double it for the odds against.

ATP Indian Wells

Dimitrov/Schwartzman @ 43/20

Tiafoe vs Hurkacz

Tiafoe has been in good form in North America, with a quarter-final appearance at Winston-Salem, fourth round at US Open, and here he beat Paire and Korda in straight sets.
Hurkacz is also in good form, coming from a tournament win in Metz. In the USA he is 15-3 this season, with titles in Delray Beach and Miami. Hurkacz is currently world no. 12, and is currently in position to qualify for the Nitto ATP Finals. In his first match here he beat Popyrin in straight sets.

This should be a competitive, high-quality contest, and even the bookies think that this is going to be a long match, as they set the odds very low for a high total (over 22.5 games @1.72).
I'll take the over 2.5 sets at much better odds.

Bet: Over 2.5 sets @2.37

Medvedev vs Krajinovic
Rublev vs Paul

Medvedev is just in another class now. After winning the US Open in straight sets over Djokovic, he demolished Shapovalov (6-4 6-0) at Laver Cup and in the first round here he warmed himself up against McDonald (6-4 6-2).

Up to this point, nobody has enjoyed a more favorable draw at this tournament than Paul. He took advantage of 40-year-old Spaniard Feliciano Lopez in the opening round and then defeated an out of form Dusan Lajovic. It was a much-needed stroke of good fortune for Paul, who had been on a rough patch himself.

Of course, the opposition gets much tougher for him now. Rublev is 47-16 this season and is the next player in line to clinch a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals following Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev. He cruised past Carlos Taberner in the first round, showing that he is one of the few players who has the firepower from the back of the court to hit through these slow conditions in Indian Wells. This is a bad matchup for Paul (he trails the head-to-head series 3-0) and there is no reason to think anything will be different here.

Medvedev 2-0 + Rublev 2-0 @2.22

Surface a little slow in Indian Wells but I think it is fast enough to favor Khachanov. Adding Berrettini for the odds.

ATP Indian Wells

Khachanov/Carreno Busta and Berrettini/Fritz @ 7/4

Berrettini + De Minaur @2.26

Berrettini + Tsitsipas + Zverev @1.95

Swiatek + Azarenka + Kontaveit @1.95

No idea what came over Berrettini last night. Very strange performance.
Sets fancy this evening is Tommy v Saffa/NZ/GB.

ATP Indian Wells
Paul v Norrie
Over 2.5 sets @ 14/10
Treble
Khachanov/Hurkacz/Ruud @ 41/20
and a USA beer double
Paul/Fritz @ 13/2

Medvedev - difficult to see anyone beat him right now
Tsitsipas - he has De Minaur's number, and absolute one sided h2h, 7-0 to Tsitsipas.
Zverev - he trails Monfils 0-3 in h2h, but those matches were played more than 5 years ago. This is a different Zverev, a much improved one.
Khachanov - because Vann selected him

Medvedev + Tsitsipas + Zverev + Khachanov @2.20

I realise I am knocking on a bit and the books are slowly redeeming some of their losses from 20-30 years ago but I bet less so its going to take them a while. What I find scary is the quality of punters joining the game today. Noticed something over the last few days from a local book - here is today's offering

Norrie v Schwartzman
Total match games
Under 22.5 @ 0.72
Over 22.5 @ 0.85
Someone has to be taking this otherwise it would not be offered so regularly - SCARY

Mentioned earlier I am impressed with Dimitrov. Guy always had the game but also the good looks so allocated his time 50/50 between tennis and hide the sausage. Now going out with an Oligarch's daughter so staying on the straight and narrow would be good for his health.

Indian Wells
Norrie v Schwartzman
Match games over 22.5 @ evens

To win tournament out right
Dimitrov @ 12/1

Dimitrov vs Hurkacz

Dimitrov staged a spectacular comeback from 4-6 1-4 double-break deficit against Medvedev, and ended up pulling off a 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 upset.
It was a strange match. Medvedev was in control until 4-1 up in the second set, when he began to make mistake after mistake. He became frustrated and lost the game mentally.

After the match Medvedev summed it up as follows:

"Three things happened,” he said. “I don’t ever remember losing my serve, three, four times in the same match. This court is more like clay, it is so slow, and I hate clay. I also wanted to play at night, but they told me the schedule didn’t permit that and I understood, but I knew this day match would be trouble. And third, if Grigor plays the rest of the tournament like he did against me from 4-1 of the second, he will win here. He played the second part of the match better than anybody played against me during the entire U.S. Open.”

Hurkacz is now 17-3 on American hard courts this season after he trounced Karatsev 6-1 6-3 in the previous round. Prior to that, Hurkacz beat an in-form Tiafoe 6-3 6-2. In three matches here he hasn't lost a set and dominated his opponents in all aspects of the game, showing that he likes the conditions here.
Earlier in the season he won in Miami in similar conditions.
He is also highly motivated, as Hurkacz is in with big chances to qualify for the end of season ATP Finals.
It will be tough for Dimitrov to follow up such a huge victory exactly 24 hours later. Generally huge upsets are followed by let-downs.

Bet: Hurkacz -1.5 @1.80

Norrie vs Schwartzman

All three of Norrie's matches this fortnight have required final sets.
Schwartzman battled though a pair of three-setters against Maxime Cressy and Dan Evans before he took advantage of a fatigued Casper Ruud and cruised 6-3, 6-3 on Wednesday. This is a tough one to call between two in-form players, in what will mostly be a baseline war of attrition. 

In three previous meetings they have played the maximum number of sets: 11 (two 3-setters at regular tournaments and one 5-setter at US Open). These matches were so tight that in two of the three matches the last set was a long one: 7-5.

Another thriller should be in the cards, which is nothing new especially for Norrie.

Bet: Over 22.5 games @2.03

So the dwarf does not arrive for last nights match W**##@**r. At least Dimitrov hung tough.

Basilashvilli v Tsitsipas
Taking games here on the basis that Tsitsipas has just not looked on top form in California.

Match games over 21.5 @ 9/10

Fritz v Zverev
Zverev usually has that one set where he creams the opposition so going

Zverev -4.5 @ 12/10

Basilashvili vs Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas has been suffering for a cold for the past few days and he needed comeback efforts to get past Fognini and De Minaur.
In each of their previous two meetings Basilashvili took a set, so I expect this one to be long too.
I also like Tsitsipas to get through, as he is gearing up for the Nitto ATP Finals.

Bet: Over 21.5 games @1.86

Fritz vs Zverev

Fritz hasn't lost a set yet and has already beaten two top 10 seeds in Indian Wells, Berrettini and Sinner. He is playing outstanding tennis in the desert this week.
Zverev won the Cincinnati Masters and made his way to the semifinals at the U.S. Open,
He had a slower start here, losing one set to Brooksby in the first round, but after that he beat Murray in 2 sets and dispatched Monfils losing only 4 games in the previous round.

Zverev should win this, as he has been one of the most in-form players on tour in recent months, but this is likely to be a long, tough match.
Fritz has beaten Zverev once in four tries, but most of their matches have been competitive, including a close four-setter at Wimbledon this year.

Bet: Over 21.5 games @1.95

Triple Bet (adding Ulster vs Lions alt total points to push the odds to 2.00):

Tsitsipas + Zverev + Ulster Match Points Over 41.5 @2.00

Some very strange results in California has made punting a little difficult but I feel we have scraped by. Hoping Dimitrov edges Norrie this evening to keep my out right alive.
Really feel Fritz is pumped and will just have too much for Basilashvili.

Fritz v Basilashvili
Fritz to win 2-0 @ 29/20

Norrie vs Basilashvili

Norrie and Basilashvili are meeting for the second time in their careers in an unexpected final at the Indian Wells Masters. Their previous encounter came earlier this year on the indoor hard courts of Rotterdam, where Norrie rolled 6-0, 6-3.

Things have only gotten better and better for Norrie since he beat Basilashvili. He has now reached six finals in 2021, including a title in Los Cabos and a recent runner-up performance in San Diego.
In this tournament he has gradually raised his level and his matches against Schwartzman and Dimitrov were simply impressive. Norrie created many winners, imposed his game and handled very well the few difficult moments he had.

Basilashvili has titles in Doha and Munich, and booked his spot in the championship match by beating Eubanks, Ramos-Vinolas, Khachanov, Tsitsipas and Fritz.
He was very good against Tsitsipas, especially in the decider. Against Fritz however, he had many problems, as he saved 3 set points and 7 break points. He managed to convert the only break point that he had and that's how he won the match.

Although Basilashvili is playing much better than he was back in March when he lost to Norrie in Rotterdam, this is still a bad matchup for him. Norrie gets a ton of balls back in play, and he can do that even more effectively in extremely slow conditions. Norrie’s backhand also stays low–outside of Basilashvili’s strike zone, just like against Dimitrov in the semis.

Norrie has dominated his last two matches 6-0, 6-2 and 6-2, 6-4, whereas Basilashvili has enjoyed a routine match only in the first round. The Brit is on a roll and I think he will capture the biggest title of his life.

Bet 1: Norrie -1.5 sets @2.62
Bet 2: Norrie -2 games @1.81

I like these favourites to win.

Antwerp

Bergs vs Harris
Novak vs Fucsovics

Tenerife

Svitolina vs Osorio Serrano

Bet: Harris + Fucsovics + Svitolina @2.05