URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
- Brent Graham
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1 week 4 days ago #1
by Brent Graham
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URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October was created by Brent Graham
We take a short break from test Match rugby and what a great conclusion to the Rugby Champs we had. The Boks delivered the over 37.5 newsletter bet and my early play of over 51.5 points arrived eventually but only after a huge sweat
I also hit unders in the Bledisloe but never felt safe until the 78th minute!
Sadly the 10/1 newsletter acca missed with Ulster failing to reach 25 points.
Edinburgh points was also a bad loss for me but overall I showed a small profit and we should never be complaining about that.
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This week the main focus will be URC and here are the 8 matches with my projected caps (still getting a fee for the overseas teams)
Cardiff +6.5 v Glasgow
Scarlets +6.5 v Connacht
Lions -7.5 v Edinburgh
Bulls -12.5 v Ulster
Dragons +7.5 v Sharks
Benetton +14.5 v Leinster
Zebre +8.5 v Stormers
Munster -10.5 v Scarlets
There is also Gallagher Prem, NPC and no doubt some French rugger as well.
I look forward to your thoughts and have a great week.
I also hit unders in the Bledisloe but never felt safe until the 78th minute!
Sadly the 10/1 newsletter acca missed with Ulster failing to reach 25 points.
Edinburgh points was also a bad loss for me but overall I showed a small profit and we should never be complaining about that.
If you are not on our mailing list yet - Click here to sign up in seconds
This week the main focus will be URC and here are the 8 matches with my projected caps (still getting a fee for the overseas teams)
Cardiff +6.5 v Glasgow
Scarlets +6.5 v Connacht
Lions -7.5 v Edinburgh
Bulls -12.5 v Ulster
Dragons +7.5 v Sharks
Benetton +14.5 v Leinster
Zebre +8.5 v Stormers
Munster -10.5 v Scarlets
There is also Gallagher Prem, NPC and no doubt some French rugger as well.
I look forward to your thoughts and have a great week.
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1 week 3 days ago #2
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
WSB out with URC caps (in brackets) and surprised to see all are within 2 points of mine therefore no early moves
Cardiff +6.5(+8.5) v Glasgow
Scarlets +6.5 (+6.5) v Connacht
Lions -7.5 (-8.5) v Edinburgh
Bulls -12.5 (-13.5) v Ulster
Dragons +7.5 (+7.5) v Sharks
Benetton +14.5 (+12.5) v Leinster
Zebre +8.5 (+9.5) v Stormers
Munster -10.5 (-12.5) v Ospreys
Cardiff +6.5(+8.5) v Glasgow
Scarlets +6.5 (+6.5) v Connacht
Lions -7.5 (-8.5) v Edinburgh
Bulls -12.5 (-13.5) v Ulster
Dragons +7.5 (+7.5) v Sharks
Benetton +14.5 (+12.5) v Leinster
Zebre +8.5 (+9.5) v Stormers
Munster -10.5 (-12.5) v Ospreys
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1 week 3 days ago #3
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
No major fancies so far anyway. The only ones Ive considered are Ospreys + 13 away to Munster. I prefer backing them when they are underdogs, looking at records here from last year they do have a good record against the cap when underdogs. Also a lean towards Cardiff at home to Glasgow.
Find it hard to measure some of the SA teams, Especially Sharks. After losing like they did last week I would normally think there would be some stern talk this week to illicit a reaction but I'm not sure this is something that would happen with the Sharks. I need to look a bit further at the Zebre v Stormers game but initial lean would be to stormers.
Find it hard to measure some of the SA teams, Especially Sharks. After losing like they did last week I would normally think there would be some stern talk this week to illicit a reaction but I'm not sure this is something that would happen with the Sharks. I need to look a bit further at the Zebre v Stormers game but initial lean would be to stormers.
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1 week 3 days ago #4
by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Sharks should cover the -7.5. Connacht are a tough side at home and now this season they look like a very well drilled side. Sharks had a bit of CC final hangover which caught up in 2nd half.
Expecting them to win by 12+ this weekend.
Expecting them to win by 12+ this weekend.
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1 week 3 days ago #5
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Have taken the Ospreys +13 away to Munster
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1 week 3 days ago #6
by Laraxwell
Replied by Laraxwell on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
I would expect a spirited response from Munster. Graham Rowntree is livid with performance v Zebre so should have the side wound up
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1 week 2 days ago #7
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Under 53.5 tasman-auckland @1.82 3u
Big stake here, weather looks horrible in Nelson before and during the match. With this conditions I'd put the line around 44-45 points so some valué here. They play for the Shield as well, so for me this is unders.
Big stake here, weather looks horrible in Nelson before and during the match. With this conditions I'd put the line around 44-45 points so some valué here. They play for the Shield as well, so for me this is unders.
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1 week 2 days ago #8
by Tackle Bets
Replied by Tackle Bets on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Emerging Ireland playing pumas, bookies had these well wrong two years ago. Any thoughts, would expect Irish to win this easy enough
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1 week 2 days ago #9
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
I havent seen the Pumas team yet but reckon the Irish -4.5 is the play - don't see myself getting too involved though
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1 week 2 days ago #10
by Connachtrugby0
Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Are you sure they had them wrong? I recall lot of punters jumping on the SA teams on the handicap and they were hammered.
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1 week 2 days ago #11
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
I missed the early points line in the 50s for tasman v Auckland. The bookies seem to set the number without considering weather and allow the punters to correct the number. You've had a few nice unders like that Pablo, you've got the value and to me that's the aim
I have taken some of Auckland +12. Usually oppose them but with weather being poor I'm hoping they can stay in it.
I have taken some of Auckland +12. Usually oppose them but with weather being poor I'm hoping they can stay in it.
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1 week 1 day ago #12
by Jameson
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Tasman unders going well - a point a minute so far after 14.
I hate unders - why do I do it sob sob
I hate unders - why do I do it sob sob
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1 week 1 day ago #13
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Don't panic, these are often games of 2 halves
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1 week 1 day ago #14
by Jameson
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Don't panic, these are often games of 2 halves
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...
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1 week 1 day ago #15
by Jameson
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Don't panic, these are often games of 2 halves
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...
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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #16
by Jameson
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...T
EDIT: how do I delete multiple posts? I must be having a senior moment!
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Don't panic, these are often games of 2 halves
I was on under 47.5 - that unnecessary try into extra time and the killer conversion ...T
EDIT: how do I delete multiple posts? I must be having a senior moment!
Last edit: 1 week 1 day ago by Jameson.
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1 week 1 day ago #17
by Pablo
Too many points for a wet wet match but a big stake win is a big stake win.
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Pablo wrote: Under 53.5 tasman-auckland @1.82 3u
Big stake here, weather looks horrible in Nelson before and during the match. With this conditions I'd put the line around 44-45 points so some valué here. They play for the Shield as well, so for me this is unders.
Too many points for a wet wet match but a big stake win is a big stake win.
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1 week 1 day ago #18
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Stiff Jameson, I didn't watch but from Twitter it seemed the handling was unbelievable given conditions.
Well done on grabbing the early value Pablo.
Well done on grabbing the early value Pablo.
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1 week 1 day ago #19
by Sharkster
Bit early brent
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Stiff Jameson, I didn't watch but from Twitter it seemed the handling was unbelievable given conditions.
Well done on grabbing the early value Pablo.
Bit early brent
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1 week 1 day ago - 1 week 1 day ago #20
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Toulouse will rotate this week (Ntamack, Capuozzo, Willis at least out), Ramos will play 10. I wait for more info but Castres +3 starts to look valuable, tough team to play at Pierre Fabre.
Now a little bit of gamble: Racing played almost unchanged for 4 weeks in a row so they should make some rotation (this is my opinion based on how french rugby is managed). Bad timming as they visit the recently promoted Vannes (that rotated heavily against Toulon last weekend). For me Vannes dnb @2 may be the play here, they showed some spirit against SF and ST, and even Toulon, and defeated Lou at home so no the "easy" match everybody expected before the season kickoff.
Now a little bit of gamble: Racing played almost unchanged for 4 weeks in a row so they should make some rotation (this is my opinion based on how french rugby is managed). Bad timming as they visit the recently promoted Vannes (that rotated heavily against Toulon last weekend). For me Vannes dnb @2 may be the play here, they showed some spirit against SF and ST, and even Toulon, and defeated Lou at home so no the "easy" match everybody expected before the season kickoff.
Last edit: 1 week 1 day ago by Pablo.
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1 week 1 day ago #21
by Connachtrugby0
Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
No betting here in the UK for the Emerging Ireland Pumas game. Strange considering the amount of rubbish you can bet on these days
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1 week 1 day ago #22
by Sharkster
Could be an indication that bookies aren't sure how to price. They will let you bet on rubbish as long as they have the edge
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Connachtrugby0 wrote: No betting here in the UK for the Emerging Ireland Pumas game. Strange considering the amount of rubbish you can bet on these days
Could be an indication that bookies aren't sure how to price. They will let you bet on rubbish as long as they have the edge
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1 week 1 day ago #23
by Connachtrugby0
Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Very true. I would bet Ireland if allowed or maybe the points
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- Brent Graham
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1 week 1 day ago #24
by Brent Graham
took a while for me to get that one Sharkster
19-7 at the break to the Irish and taking some o58.5 at WSB as reckon it could open up
Ireland so much more clinical on attack
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
took a while for me to get that one Sharkster19-7 at the break to the Irish and taking some o58.5 at WSB as reckon it could open up
Ireland so much more clinical on attack
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1 week 1 day ago #25
by Jameson
At my age, an annual event!
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Sharkster wrote:
Brent Graham wrote: Stiff Jameson, I didn't watch but from Twitter it seemed the handling was unbelievable given conditions.
Well done on grabbing the early value Pablo.
Bit early brent
At my age, an annual event!
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1 week 1 day ago #26
by Experienced Novice
Replied by Experienced Novice on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
This Prendergast flyhalf will be an unders punter wet dream for many years to come. Unbelievable how he likes to slow down play, as if this is a test match.
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- Brent Graham
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1 week 23 hours ago #27
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Phew overs somehow scraped home in the Irish game so a nice start to the week
How bad are the Cheetahs though? Hammered by the Force who I think were +10.5
Going to be setting up tonights show soon and I think a returning guest will be welcomed back by many
Looking at the URC no real handicap movement but we have points lines for the 2 Friday night games
Cardiff v Glasgow @ 47.5
Scarlets v Connacht @ 48.5
How bad are the Cheetahs though? Hammered by the Force who I think were +10.5
Going to be setting up tonights show soon and I think a returning guest will be welcomed back by many
Looking at the URC no real handicap movement but we have points lines for the 2 Friday night games
Cardiff v Glasgow @ 47.5
Scarlets v Connacht @ 48.5
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1 week 22 hours ago #28
by Kirky
Replied by Kirky on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Is it only me who can see a Zebre win over the Stormers coming up ?
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1 week 21 hours ago #29
by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Taken Canterbury +4.5 @ 1.91
Value here for me, as reckon should be pickem
Value here for me, as reckon should be pickem
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1 week 16 hours ago #30
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Over 54.5 northampton-harlequins @1.85 2u
Good weather, Care back at 9 and Smith at 15 (Halfpenny is an overs killer). For me this should be in the 60 points mark.
Good weather, Care back at 9 and Smith at 15 (Halfpenny is an overs killer). For me this should be in the 60 points mark.
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1 week 15 hours ago #31
by ProveMeWrong
Replied by ProveMeWrong on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Gloucester plus 10.5 & over 50.5 in Quins game
Double at just over evens
Double at just over evens
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- Brent Graham
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1 week 14 hours ago #32
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Look whose back!
The Mossman joins the Oracle and myself for URC and NPC chat - join us live at 21h00
Click here to watch and set a reminder on You Tube
The Mossman joins the Oracle and myself for URC and NPC chat - join us live at 21h00
Click here to watch and set a reminder on You Tube
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1 week 14 hours ago #33
by Sharkster
Was waiting for this one and in my mind I would have taken anything below 60. I have missed the early number so it's a choice between 56 or 57 at a better price. I've taken the o57 at a better price.
Watch this land on 57:silly:
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Pablo wrote: Over 54.5 northampton-harlequins @1.85 2u
Good weather, Care back at 9 and Smith at 15 (Halfpenny is an overs killer). For me this should be in the 60 points mark.
Was waiting for this one and in my mind I would have taken anything below 60. I have missed the early number so it's a choice between 56 or 57 at a better price. I've taken the o57 at a better price.
Watch this land on 57:silly:
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1 week 13 hours ago #34
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Some big absences in LOU group to visit SR (Ainsley, Guillard, Lambey, COUILLOUD, BERDEU, Ioane, Tchapchet, Millet). Not a big big rotation but the half pair COUILLOUD-BERDEU is key in this team (I expect Page-Relo and Jackson to play 9-10).
SR -14.5 @1.793 just for 1u waiting for lineups or more info, if you have team points now SR overs at 34.5 is the best bet here for 2u. Good weather expected, some rain after the match (around 7pm)
SR -14.5 @1.793 just for 1u waiting for lineups or more info, if you have team points now SR overs at 34.5 is the best bet here for 2u. Good weather expected, some rain after the match (around 7pm)
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6 days 23 hours ago #35
by Jameson
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Nothing much on the Northland rain radar so over 56.5 it is .....
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6 days 22 hours ago #36
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Plays on the 4 URC games not involving SA teams will
be posted in this blog
1st up over 48.5 points in Scarlets v Connacht at 19/20
I see points line in Lions game already moved from 51.5 to 53.5 after last nights show
1st up over 48.5 points in Scarlets v Connacht at 19/20
I see points line in Lions game already moved from 51.5 to 53.5 after last nights show
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6 days 22 hours ago #37
by Jameson
Also went on Otago +9.5 as they have something to play for - any incentive doesn't seem to be working though ....
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Jameson wrote: Nothing much on the Northland rain radar so over 56.5 it is .....
Also went on Otago +9.5 as they have something to play for - any incentive doesn't seem to be working though ....
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6 days 21 hours ago #38
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Nice start to the weekend for you jameson
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6 days 21 hours ago #39
by Jameson
For a change! I'll be throwing profits on Cardiff later though .....
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Sharkster wrote: Nice start to the weekend for you jameson
For a change! I'll be throwing profits on Cardiff later though .....
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6 days 21 hours ago - 6 days 20 hours ago #40
by Kirky
2 units Zebre Win @ 3.30 ditto
I don't think the Stormers will keep up with a fresh young, gung-ho, Italian side with their tails up.
I will put something on the 8+ or 13+ market when they're available too, as a slaughter is quite possible imo.
3 units Northampton Saints 13+ @ 1.96 Sunbet. Harlequins are decimated with injuries.
Replied by Kirky on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
3 units Zebre +7.5 @ 1.91 SunbetKirky wrote: Is it only me who can see a Zebre win over the Stormers coming up ?
2 units Zebre Win @ 3.30 ditto
I don't think the Stormers will keep up with a fresh young, gung-ho, Italian side with their tails up.
I will put something on the 8+ or 13+ market when they're available too, as a slaughter is quite possible imo.
3 units Northampton Saints 13+ @ 1.96 Sunbet. Harlequins are decimated with injuries.
Last edit: 6 days 20 hours ago by Kirky.
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6 days 20 hours ago #41
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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6 days 20 hours ago #42
by Laraxwell
Replied by Laraxwell on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Harlequins Over 21.5pts at Northampton 10/11 Boylesports (23.5pts at Bet 365)
Also an on the road Alternative points treble tonight:
Connacht Over 22.5
Harlequins Over 18.5
Gloucester Over 18.5
About 3/1
Also an on the road Alternative points treble tonight:
Connacht Over 22.5
Harlequins Over 18.5
Gloucester Over 18.5
About 3/1
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- Brent Graham
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6 days 19 hours ago #43
by Brent Graham
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Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Bulls team named and looks really strong, cap still -12.5 but I suspect it will start closer to -15.5
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- Jameson
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6 days 19 hours ago #44
by Jameson
It looks to me like the 'Dregs' may have gone up a notch or two this season and were better than the Leinster score line suggests. They'll be pissed off that they failed to come away with points from quite a few chances in that 1st half. Looking forward to this one!
Replied by Jameson on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Dragons v Sharks Preview is up
Sharks -7.5 at 0.93/1
It looks to me like the 'Dregs' may have gone up a notch or two this season and were better than the Leinster score line suggests. They'll be pissed off that they failed to come away with points from quite a few chances in that 1st half. Looking forward to this one!
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- Brent Graham
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6 days 18 hours ago #45
by Brent Graham
After some thought I have taken stock of -12.5
Jameson I also think Dragons have improved a bit but I like the Sharks team selected to get the job done
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Brent Graham wrote: Bulls team named and looks really strong, cap still -12.5 but I suspect it will start closer to -15.5
After some thought I have taken stock of -12.5
Jameson I also think Dragons have improved a bit but I like the Sharks team selected to get the job done
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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- southpaw
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6 days 18 hours ago #46
by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
i'm too easily sucked into punting womens rugby, mixed success in past but will try again -
Wales Italy over 42.5 total pts @ 5/6
42 pts when these 2 sides met in Cardiff, roof was on but was heavy underfoot. Good pitch at Athlone with hot and dry conditions, think this is a runner.
Wales Italy over 42.5 total pts @ 5/6
42 pts when these 2 sides met in Cardiff, roof was on but was heavy underfoot. Good pitch at Athlone with hot and dry conditions, think this is a runner.
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- Pablo
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6 days 18 hours ago #47
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Over 56.5 bulls-ulster @1.91 2u
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- ProveMeWrong
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6 days 18 hours ago #48
by ProveMeWrong
Replied by ProveMeWrong on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
Leinster go strong. Taking -13
The following user(s) said Thank You: Brent Graham
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6 days 17 hours ago #49
by Pablo
Replied by Pablo on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
And I follow you in the Bulls -14.5 @1.80 2u
Ulster make big rotation.
Leinster overs when available as well, strongest team possible.
Ulster make big rotation.
Leinster overs when available as well, strongest team possible.
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- Chiefie
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6 days 14 hours ago #50
by Chiefie
5-5 at HT.
Honestly, I feel sorry for the camera crew.
Also this touch judge is a joke. Player basically in the stand and doesn’t raise his flag. It’s amateur at best, amazed this is financially sustainable for the future.
Replied by Chiefie on topic URC Week 3, Gallagher Prem, NPC + other rugby 02-06 October
southpaw wrote: i'm too easily sucked into punting womens rugby, mixed success in past but will try again -
Wales Italy over 42.5 total pts @ 5/6
42 pts when these 2 sides met in Cardiff, roof was on but was heavy underfoot. Good pitch at Athlone with hot and dry conditions, think this is a runner.
5-5 at HT.
Honestly, I feel sorry for the camera crew.
Also this touch judge is a joke. Player basically in the stand and doesn’t raise his flag. It’s amateur at best, amazed this is financially sustainable for the future.
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