2024 NFL Season - Week 9

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1 week 2 days ago #1 by Naidoo
2024 NFL Season - Week 9 was created by Naidoo
NFL Week 9 Schedule (SA time in brackets)

Teams on a Bye: Steelers and 49ers

Thursday Night Football (Friday 02:15am)
Texans @ Jets

Sunday Games (8pm kick offs)
Cowboys @ Falcons
Broncos @ Ravens
Dolphins @ Bills
Saints @ Panthers
Raiders @ Bengals
Chargers @ Browns
Commanders @ Giants
Patriots @ Titans

Sunday Games (11pm kick offs)
Bears @ Cardinals
Jaguars @ Eagles
Lions @ Packers
Rams @ Seahawks

Sunday Night Football (Monday 03:20am)
Colts @ Vikings

Monday Night Football (Tuesday 03:15am)
Bucs @ Chiefs

College Football is also on this weekend, and all tips are welcomed. Good luck if betting and following the topic this week.

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1 week 1 day ago - 6 days 5 hours ago #2 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
CFB

5 unit bet split in 2 parts for the... wait for it.....Indiana game against Michigan State (21:30 SA time)

This is what I said last week. Getting this out of the way as team totals are out on most books. Indiana just too good and the books keep mispricing them. The Hoosiers have covered every 1st qtr, 1st half and full game handicap and team total in ALL games this season. Indiana's coach runs an aggressive style of offense, and they are +12 in turnovers so their defense is playing good enough to set up their offense for good field position, and they are holding opponents to 33.7% 3rd down conversions.

Indiana covered all those lines again last week and nothing much changes here in terms of competition. The Hoosiers know what will happen if they drop a game. They won't get the luxury of the other more prominent names in the Big Ten. Because of that, they've been razor sharp in every game they've played. Not expecting that to change against Michigan State.

  • Indiana over 30.5 TT @1.85 on Sportsbet 3u
  • Indiana - 0.5 1st quarter @1.8 on bet365 for 2u

Army over 31.5 points @1.89 against Air Force on Sportsbet 3u

Army is #1 in rush offense, yards per game, team rushing TD’s and their quarterback has the most rushing TD’s in the nation. They have put up 42+ points in 4 straight games, and they will be at home this week where they are averaging 42 points per game. Add to that, they’re coming off a bye so they will be rested and healthy.The last 3 games, Army has cleared this team total before the 4th quarter, but they don’t take their foot off the gas, even if they are up late in the game. Army is 8th in total defense, and I don’t see them struggling to stop Air Force, who runs a run heavy offense that Army should be more than ready to stop.

Army is 2nd in the country in 3rd down conversions, and 4th in the country in 4th down conversions, and that bodes well against Air Force who only stops team on 3rd down 38% of the time. Army is also #1 in the country in time of possession so when the second half comes around, the other teams defense is already worn down.

Air Force have given up 31 or more points to Baylor, Wyoming, Navy and New Mexico, and Army averages more points than all of those schools. By far the biggest problem that Air Force is going to have is that they rank 113th out of 133 teams in rushing yards allowed per game at 193.7.Navy put up 34 points against them 3 games ago and they rushed 49 times for 329 yards and 5 TD’s in that game. Then the next week, New Mexico rushed 39 times for 255 yards and 5 TD’s. Now they face the #1 rushing offense in the country in Army who rushes for 356.5 yards per game, and they have the most rushing TD’s in the country despite playing 1 less game than 2nd and 3rd place.

Oregon -14.5 @1.9 widely available against Michigan 1u (Sat 10pm)

Also like the -7.5 1st half. Oregon gets off to great starts, they jump on their opponents, put them away and then just cruise. This team wants to go make some noise in the CFB playoffs. I'm not trusting Michigan to put up points here. Oregon are not just going against a team with offensive issues, they are going against a brand name. Oregon has the 3rd longest stretch of beating unranked teams in CFB against the spread. I expect that trend to continue here.

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Last edit: 6 days 5 hours ago by doubler.
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1 week 8 hours ago #3 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
CFB + NFL parlay Friday morning

2 same game parlays @11.22 for 1u on Sportsbet

NFL legs:
Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards/ Garrett Wilson 4+ receptions/ Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards/ Jets+7.5 alt line @3.2 stand alone

CFB legs
Cartevious Norton (Charlotte) over 55.5 rushing yards/ Makhi Hughes (Tulane) over 130.5 rushing yards @3.4 stand alone

The NFL sgp is watered down as much as possible, and I do expect good old smash mouth football from two run heavy college teams. More CFB bets to be added to the CFB bets above as the week goes.

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1 week 5 hours ago #4 by Naidoo
Replied by Naidoo on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Thanks Doubler and goodluck tonight with your bets.

Thursday Night Football (Friday 02:15am)
Texans @ Jets


The Jets are in turmoil but one player who is Mr reliable for the team is WR Garrrett Wilson. Before the signing of Devante Adams, Wilson ran most of his routes on the inside. Since the signing of Adams, Wilson is running more on the outside (over 60% slot route). On the outside he has thrived and has gone long for big yards gained.

Garrett Wilson Longest Receptions this season:

16, 26, 9, 23, 16, 24, 27, 35

The last three games since signing Adams, and Wilson playing more on the outside has seen him clear 22.5 yards. This is important as the Texans are getting killed on the outside. Irrespective of 2 high safety coverage or man to man, the Texans are struggling to stop outside WRs.

Texans Longest Receptions allowed this season:

Game 1 - 60 & 54 Yards
Game 2 - 27 Yards
Game 3 - 28 Yards
Game 4 - 32 Yards
Game 5 - 24, 26 and 49 Yards
Game 6 - 30, 35 and 40 Yards
Game 7 - 23 and 30 Yards
Game 8 - 69 Yards

Based on the close ML odds and potential game script, I think Wilson can secure a deep ball and comfortably go over his long reception line tonight.

Garrett Wilson Over 22.5 Longest Reception @ 0.87/1 (Sportingbet)

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6 days 15 hours ago #5 by Naidoo
Replied by Naidoo on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9

doubler wrote: CFB + NFL parlay Friday morning

2 same game parlays @11.22 for 1u on Sportsbet

NFL legs:
Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards/ Garrett Wilson 4+ receptions/ Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards/ Jets+7.5 alt line @3.2 stand alone

CFB legs
Cartevious Norton (Charlotte) over 55.5 rushing yards/ Makhi Hughes (Tulane) over 130.5 rushing yards @3.4 stand alone

The NFL sgp is watered down as much as possible, and I do expect good old smash mouth football from two run heavy college teams. More CFB bets to be added to the CFB bets above as the week goes.


Nice call here Doubler, starting yet another week with a winner on TNF :beer

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6 days 15 hours ago #6 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Nice work on the Wilson longest reception Naidoo. I looked at Rodgers longest completion after your post and it was 35.5 and put half a unit on it, appreciate the good work always.

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6 days 11 hours ago #7 by markhyland13
Replied by markhyland13 on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9

doubler wrote: CFB + NFL parlay Friday morning

2 same game parlays @11.22 for 1u on Sportsbet

NFL legs:
Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards/ Garrett Wilson 4+ receptions/ Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards/ Jets+7.5 alt line @3.2 stand alone


Followed this NFL parlay Doubler. Nice way to start the weekend :)
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6 days 3 hours ago #8 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9

markhyland13 wrote:

doubler wrote: CFB + NFL parlay Friday morning

2 same game parlays @11.22 for 1u on Sportsbet

NFL legs:
Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards/ Garrett Wilson 4+ receptions/ Joe Mixon 70+ rushing yards/ Jets+7.5 alt line @3.2 stand alone


Followed this NFL parlay Doubler. Nice way to start the weekend :)


Glad you cashed brother.
For the chat: I added one more to the CFB plays but it doesn't show up on the forum. Let me know if in future to add on there or just do another post. Reading some beat writers' articles on some teams before I add some CFB and NFL plays tomorrow. I'll probably have 5 or so more picks in CFB.

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5 days 12 hours ago #9 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
CFB Saturday/ Sunday

Mississipi -3.5 1st half @1.9 against Arkansas

Clemson -10.5 @1.9 against Louisville

Navy -11 @1.9 against Rice

Sorry, had no time for write ups today.

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4 days 19 hours ago - 3 days 19 hours ago #10 by Naidoo
Replied by Naidoo on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Still have no clue how the books are still underestimating this Indiana CFB team. Nice call once again on them Doubler.

NFL Sunday 8pm Games
Derrick Henry (Ravens) over 3.5 Receiving Yards @ 0.87/1 (Sportingbet)
Javonte Williams over 18.5 Receiving Yards @ 0.85/1 (Sunbet)
Tyrone Tracy (Giants) over 13.5 Rushing Attempts @ 0.83/1 (Sportingbet)

11pm Games
Romeo Doubs (Packers) over 39.5 Receiving Yards @ 0.75/1 (Sunbet)
Saquon Barkley over 12.5 Receiving Yards @ 0.83/1 (Sportingbet)

Turned out to be a brilliant Sunday on the NFL, so rounding the betting accounts and some beers on Jonathan Taylor (Colts) 25+ Receiving Yards @ 3/1 for the Sunday Night Football game at 3am.

Twitter handle @vinolin_naidoo
Last edit: 3 days 19 hours ago by Naidoo.
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4 days 18 hours ago #11 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Shhh, don't say it out loud Naidoo, that's our cash cow even though the 1st quarter didn't pan out well. 1st half, TT and full game spread cashed again.

Love the NFL plays, about to dive into it after this UFC card.

Twitter handle @_1Bitsy

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4 days 6 hours ago #12 by doubler
Replied by doubler on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Was an average day in CFB this weekend and just got in the green due to the bigger unit size plays, but some atrocious results in the 1u plays. UFC on the other hand was much better.

NFL Sunday plays
On the road so limited plays, will have a same game parlay for Tuesday morning game. All 1u plays

8pm games
Commanders -3.0 @1.84 against Giants
Saints -6.5 @1.88 against Panthers
Kyle Pitts (Falcons) over 47.5 receiving yards @1.9 -this number makes no sense

11pm games
Saquon Barkley (Eagles) over 87.5 rushing yards @1.9

Twitter handle @_1Bitsy
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3 days 7 hours ago #13 by Naidoo
Replied by Naidoo on topic 2024 NFL Season - Week 9
Monday Night Football (Tuesday 03:15am)
Bucs @ Chiefs


Finishing off Week 9 with a SGP. Both teams are struggling against slot TEs and these guys have covered their lines in most games this season.

Chiefs Win
Noah Gray (Chiefs) 20+ Receiving Yards
Cade Otton (Bucs) 40+ Receiving Yards
@3.20 (Sunbet)

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