Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #1 by Brent Graham

Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January was created by Brent Graham

Week 3 of the Champions Cup was a battle for me.

Thankfully I nailed Castres with an early bet when it was a choice game and I also hit La Rochelle under 20.5 but I took body blows on Glasgow, Sale and unders in the Bath match

Overall a manageably poor weekend.

Here are the week 4 Champions Cup Fixtures

Friday, 17 January 2025
Ulster Rugby vs. Exeter Chiefs

Saturday, 18 January 2025
Vodacom Bulls vs. Stade Francais Paris
Northampton Saints vs. Munster Rugby
ASM Clermont Auvergne vs. Bristol Bears
Benetton Rugby vs. Stade Rochelais
Leinster Rugby vs. Bath Rugby
Harlequins vs. Glasgow Warriors
Racing 92 vs. DHL Stormers

Sunday, 19 January 2025
Union Bordeaux-Bègles vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks
Saracens vs. Castres Olympique
Stade Toulousain vs. Leicester Tigers
Sale Sharks vs. RC Toulon

This will be an interesting week with some sides already gone - I am going to do a video looking at the pools and coming to my handicap projections and will post the link on here.

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Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #2 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Hopefully there will be some opportunities to get out ahead of team news etc and get some value like this weekend.

A couple of games that stick out based on the situations teams are in , there are others but I think teams that have a chance of getting first are likely to maintain a top team

Bulls v Stade - Bulls are out of out while Stade have a chance. I can only see them going with a full strength side while Its very possible the bulls may stick with a similar team. Looking at the long term forecast it looks like rainy weather and manageable temperatures

Bordeaux v Sharks - I would love if sharks were fully qualified here as I would imagine they send the reserves to Bordeaux, with that said they are basically qualified. Bordeaux will want a home tie in the ko round and stop Toulouse getting one. I will be keeping an eye on social media to see if there are any clues on the touring squad

Any of the French / Saffa experts have any thoughts on these games?

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #3 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Sharkster I am about to do a video on the permutations and I think there are alot of games where it is tough to read the strategies.

Bulls v SF is interesting, although out of contention can the Bulls (White) afford a home loss and yes SF can make it but do they really want to?

I expect my handicaps to be way out but hopefully leads to a gem or 2 for early in the week

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #4 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

The video is up Click here to watch the Week 4 Preview

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #5 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

SUMMARY OF MY HANDICAPS

Ulster Rugby -17.5 vs. Exeter Chiefs
Vodacom Bulls -8.5 vs. Stade Francais Paris
Northampton Saints -8.5 vs. Munster Rugby
ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 vs. Bristol Bears
Benetton Rugby +14.5 vs. Stade Rochelais
Leinster Rugby -18.5 vs. Bath Rugby
Harlequins -4.5 vs. Glasgow Warriors
Racing 92 -15.5 vs. DHL Stormers
Union Bordeaux-Bègles -28.5 vs. Hollywoodbets Sharks
Saracens -25.5 vs. Castres Olympique
Stade Toulousain -26.5 vs. Leicester Tigers
Sale Sharks +9.5 vs. RC Toulon

I am expecting some big differences and hopefully some early moves.

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #6 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

6 EARLY HANDICAPS
Bookmakers are weary about this weekend (I don’t blame them) and only 6 handicaps are out (in brackets from Betxchange)

Northampton Saints -8.5 (-7.5) vs. Munster Rugby
ASM Clermont Auvergne -14.5 (-11.5) vs. Bristol Bears
Benetton Rugby +14.5 (+8.5) vs. Stade Rochelais
Leinster Rugby -18.5 (-14.5) vs. Bath Rugby
Harlequins -4.5 (-1.5) vs. Glasgow Warriors
Sale Sharks +9.5 (-0.5) vs. RC Toulon

Some big differences with mine
The biggest is Toulon and given they may need to win the game to finish top I am surprised to see Sale favourite.

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Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #7 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

I think there was an early +7 for Toulon even

One that interests me is bath +17 I had this 10 point difference. Money is coming for leinster so I don't need to play yet

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Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #8 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Have taken Glasgow +5 and Munster +7. I don't think there's any fear those teams won't go full steam.

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #9 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

The more I think about this week the more I realise I don't have a clue

I think for one thing that I have been overestimating the difference between finishing 1st and 2nd

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2 months 1 week ago #10 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Some more market info

Toulouse v Leicester is out and is -18.5 (I went -26.5) and of those already priced Leinster have gone to -17.5 from -14.5 (close to my -18.5) and Quins are -3.5 from -1.5 also edging towards my -4.5.

The others look pretty stable.

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #11 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Still only the 7 handicaps and only real mover is Toulouse to -21.5 from -18.5

A strange week as everyone waits on team news.

For that reason THE HANDICAP will be live at 16h00 Friday afternoon to allow time for team news to be digested and markets to settle - so no show tonight

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Gareth75
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2 months 1 week ago #12 by Gareth75

Replied by Gareth75 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

As you’ve mentioned Brent it’s hard to get a clear view on these final round of games this weekend before team news , but I’ve Gone in on backing Sale to win @ (1.9) against Toulon with the hope im on before a possible move on the odds & hcap. My thinking is looks like Toulon are guaranteed a home last 16 knock out game , is that enough for them ? & then they’re Home against La Rochelle a week Sunday in top 14. So will they rest some players from this weekend Sale game & bring the big guns back for next week home game against La Rochelle ? As we know Top 14 generally go full strength at home

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TheAdmiral

2 months 1 week ago #13 by TheAdmiral

Replied by TheAdmiral on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Taken Connacht ml @ 1.83 vs Cardiff. Connacht can secure a home semi with a BP win and Cardiff could make a decent XV with their injured players

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GoGoNoNo
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2 months 1 week ago #14 by GoGoNoNo

Replied by GoGoNoNo on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Gareth75 wrote: As you’ve mentioned Brent it’s hard to get a clear view on these final round of games this weekend before team news , but I’ve Gone in on backing Sale to win @ (1.9) against Toulon with the hope im on before a possible move on the odds & hcap. My thinking is looks like Toulon are guaranteed a home last 16 knock out game , is that enough for them ? & then they’re Home against La Rochelle a week Sunday in top 14. So will they rest some players from this weekend Sale game & bring the big guns back for next week home game against La Rochelle ? As we know Top 14 generally go full strength at home

Hello Gareth,

here is the information we have on Toulon in France for the match against Sale, they have a lot of injuries and there will be rotation. Below you will find my source which you will need to translate into English.

www.blog-rct.com/les-choix-forts-de-pier...tre-les-sale-sharks/

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Gareth75
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2 months 1 week ago #15 by Gareth75

Replied by Gareth75 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

GoGoNoNo wrote:
Gareth75 wrote: As you’ve mentioned Brent it’s hard to get a clear view on these final round of games this weekend before team news , but I’ve Gone in on backing Sale to win @ (1.9) against Toulon with the hope im on before a possible move on the odds & hcap. My thinking is looks like Toulon are guaranteed a home last 16 knock out game , is that enough for them ? & then they’re Home against La Rochelle a week Sunday in top 14. So will they rest some players from this weekend Sale game & bring the big guns back for next week home game against La Rochelle ? As we know Top 14 generally go full strength at home

Hello Gareth,

here is the information we have on Toulon in France for the match against Sale, they have a lot of injuries and there will be rotation. Below you will find my source which you will need to translate into English.

www.blog-rct.com/les-choix-forts-de-pier...tre-les-sale-sharks/

Thanks

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Laraxwell
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2 months 1 week ago #16 by Laraxwell

Replied by Laraxwell on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Cheeky Agen Over 25.5pts bet v Biarritz

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Laraxwell
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2 months 1 week ago - 2 months 1 week ago #17 by Laraxwell

Replied by Laraxwell on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Laraxwell wrote: Cheeky Agen Over 25.5pts bet v Biarritz

Yes, too cheeky.
There's always some pillock willing to rise to the occasion and sink a bet - An early red card for Agen

Update:
Agen proceed to score 21 pts and win the O25.5pt bet by half time.

Some life in the weekend yet.

Last edit: 2 months 1 week ago by Laraxwell. Reason: Update

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #18 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

The Handicap is live at 16h00 this afternoon - Set a reminder here

Not much more to report betting wise other than Sale now -4.5 from what was a choice game at one point

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #19 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 16h00 this afternoon - Set a reminder here

Not much more to report betting wise other than Sale now -4.5 from what was a choice game at one point

after Sale's performance in CT anyone taking the -4.5 needs to give their head a wobble!

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Quill
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2 months 1 week ago #20 by Quill

Replied by Quill on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Ulster vs Exeter

Exeter are resting several first team players for this match, while Ulster have a strong team, including their four Ireland internationals that will play in the Six Nations.

I took Ulster -16.5 @1.86

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2 months 1 week ago #21 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Ulster v Exeter Preview

We thinking along similar lines Quill

I have gone Exeter under 20.5 at 20/21

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Pablo
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2 months 1 week ago - 2 months 1 week ago #22 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Managed to take Ulster -14.5 @1.81 and Sale @1.72 2u both in my exchange.

In Pro D2 Montauban+Aurillac+Brive @1.80 2u, all DNB

Last edit: 2 months 1 week ago by Pablo.

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2 months 1 week ago #23 by Pablo

Replied by Pablo on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Bulls -18.5 @1.90 2u

Big rotation SF, Bulls going strong. Expected around 26-28 points advantage for Bulls with this lineups.

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #24 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Bulls -15.5 available in UK @ 5/6. This won't last. Bulls to put on a big score.

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Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #25 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Took bulls -17 and also bath +18. Was waiting on whether bath would be full strength and they.

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coil
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2 months 1 week ago #26 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

For a friday night nothing really wets the appetite too much .

No rain about and not as cold as last weekend .

Minor fancies so far , Ulster on the minus though I have missed the value already , I think I'll join under Exeter 19.5 points so long ,

I have a small fancy Cardiff on the plus but I missed plus 5.5 early in the week, it's now 3.5 and will hold fire for now .

Then in Newcastle , Montpellier arrive and are large cap favourites against a weak hone side , however I think the plus 13.5 is worth a nibble.

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #27 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Bulls over 5.5 tries @ 11/10

Also considering the over 2.5 1st half Bulls tries but price a bit skinny @ 8/10

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Connachtrugby0
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2 months 1 week ago #28 by Connachtrugby0

Replied by Connachtrugby0 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Ulster are an embarrassment really

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coil
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2 months 1 week ago #29 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Hollie Davidson has zero clue , she is an overs wet dream .

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Jameson
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2 months 1 week ago #30 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Yet another awful way to lose a bet in the Ulcer game. Hells Bells.

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sportsbettor
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2 months 1 week ago #31 by sportsbettor

Replied by sportsbettor on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Exeter played like the 2007 Springboks in the first half. And Moana Pasifika in the second half.

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Catinthehat
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2 months 1 week ago #32 by Catinthehat

Replied by Catinthehat on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Any chance of bulls winning by 50 points. I took 14/1

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #33 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Looking forward to an action packed day of rugby

Guys I deleted 2 posts that got personal

Sharing opinions is fine but trading insults and swearing is not what we are about - lets keep it betting focused

Newsletter will be out in the next couple of hours - here is the link for those new to the forum bit.ly/gftgnewsletter

Looks like markets have been stable overnight

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Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #34 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Bulls v Stade Francais Preview

Rubber stamping Southpaws over 5.5 Bulls tries but got 9/10

I hope this one holds for the newsletter

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2 months 1 week ago #35 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Racing 92 v Stormers Preview

Turning to home try markets again, Racing over 4.5 at 1/1

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2 months 1 week ago #36 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

3 more bets added to the blog

Over 8.5 tries Clermont game now 8/11
Saints -6.5 9/10
Lions over 5.5 tries 8/10

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Willho2
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2 months 1 week ago #37 by Willho2

Replied by Willho2 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Over 55.5 Bristol v Clermont for me. and under 54.5 Leinster v Bath.

the way Bristol plays...i think they cna keep this close and there will be points there. No idea how th pts line is so high for Leinster match given leinster dont score pts these days and is very much a defensive team.

Feel like Saints v Munster will be old school euro low scoring tussle too.

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Willho2
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2 months 1 week ago #38 by Willho2

Replied by Willho2 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

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2 months 1 week ago #39 by Willho2

Replied by Willho2 on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

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coil
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2 months 1 week ago #40 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Last's night's action was poor , thankfully stakes were low but for Exeter to score that soft try was just typical for a Friday .

Clermont were butchered last week by Mike Adamson and should be in an angry mood , I've taken a solid strike minus 11.5 .

Against the grain slightly in Northampton , plus 6.5 Munster at this stage and will look to take more on a bigger plus if the Saints start fast .

Joining with the Lions over 5.5 tries at 7/10 .

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #41 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Bulls deliver my big one for weekend.

Clermont over 4.5 tries @ 8/10

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Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #42 by Sharkster

Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Adding o 55 in the clermont game.

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coil
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2 months 1 week ago #43 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Not as confident going into these evenings games , but I do fancy Lyon minus 16.5 .

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #44 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

How the hell did the try and points overs lands for punters in Clermont?? Beautiful scenes

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southpaw

2 months 1 week ago #45 by southpaw

Replied by southpaw on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Last one for today, not as big as earlier stakes but over tries been working nicely -

Over 4.5 Racing tries @ evens

Joining Brent.

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coil
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2 months 1 week ago #46 by coil

Replied by coil on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Minus 14.5 Racing at evens

Backed Quins outright at 5/7.

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Jameson
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2 months 1 week ago #47 by Jameson

Replied by Jameson on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

No score in the Harlequins game for nearly 40 min screws my overs...........

Otherwise, a good watch.

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Brent Graham
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2 months 6 days ago #48 by Brent Graham

Replied by Brent Graham on topic Rugby: Champions Cup & Challenge Cup week 4 17-19 January

Phew I needed that Racing 5th try and although a mixed strike rate the 2 big plays Racing over 4.5 and Bulls over 5.5 insure I finish Saturday well ahead.

Too early to crack the champagne though as there are 4 games today

Bordeaux v Sharks Preview

Bordeaux over 3.5 1st half tries at 5/4

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