Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
- Brent Graham
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2 months 1 week ago #1
by Brent Graham
Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
Rugby Betting Strategy Thread was created by Brent Graham
I picked this conversation up at the end of last weeks rugby thread and thought it was worth a thread - the subject in question was "middling" on handicaps but any other rugby betting strategies can be discussed
Sharkster wrote: Tough break. I don't middle at all really in play but often wondered if I would see profit doing it. It's risk mitigation I suppos
One thing I probably need to capitalise more on is alternative caps and points lines when it seems things could change later in the week. Today was a good day but left some cash behind I would say
Gareth 75 wrote: Slightly on a tangent from your above message. Just wondered if you or anyone gets involved with doing what I call is window bets on the hcap lines ?
An example is yesterdays Sharks v Toulouse game.
Toulouse hcap beginning of week before team announcements was -8 or-9 @ (1.9) Teams get announced on Friday the hcap starts drifting out and settles around the -15 / -16 @ (1.9)
I backed Toulouse at -8 anticipating a bit of a move, but already thinking of backing 40% size of my Toulouse stake on the Sharks at the biggest + hcap i can get at 1.9 e.g -
Toulouse -8 (1.9) 10 units
Sharks + 16 (1.9) 4 units. By doing this I reduce my liability of all 10 units on Toulouse to win by 9pts or more, to having a 6 unit bet on Toulouse to win by 9 pts or more, which I'm now comfortable with, but also I have a chance that the sharks + 16 bet wins too.
The 5pt winning margins generally around the hcap lines are priced around the 5/1, 6/1,mark, by getting movement in the hcap lines to create a 5 point or more spread at odds of 1.9 or better on both sides turns this into odds of 20/1 if both bets win
As we knew The final score was Sharks 8-20 Toulouse, a winning margin of 12 which meant both bets won.
Just wondered if anyone else gets involved with this type of thing ?
Sharkster Wrote: I have only heard this called middling, its something I consider regularly but never employ it as a tactic. I can see the attraction in that you are pretty much locking in a break even or losing less depending on how you approach it (minus the juice) and having an opportunity of 2 winning bets.
This usually pops into my head at halftimes where my bet is in good shape and the window or middle is significant . Its seems like each time I do consider it my bet loses , if I middle it would have been a break even.
An example of where you would have broken even rater than profit with this is the Castres Bulls game, that's the other side of it I guess. I did hear a pro discuss on a podcast that they would use this teqnique when they were on a bad run and felt like everything was running against them
I don't see anyone discuss it on the forum but maybe others use this strategy?
Sharkster wrote: Tough break. I don't middle at all really in play but often wondered if I would see profit doing it. It's risk mitigation I suppos
One thing I probably need to capitalise more on is alternative caps and points lines when it seems things could change later in the week. Today was a good day but left some cash behind I would say
Gareth 75 wrote: Slightly on a tangent from your above message. Just wondered if you or anyone gets involved with doing what I call is window bets on the hcap lines ?
An example is yesterdays Sharks v Toulouse game.
Toulouse hcap beginning of week before team announcements was -8 or-9 @ (1.9) Teams get announced on Friday the hcap starts drifting out and settles around the -15 / -16 @ (1.9)
I backed Toulouse at -8 anticipating a bit of a move, but already thinking of backing 40% size of my Toulouse stake on the Sharks at the biggest + hcap i can get at 1.9 e.g -
Toulouse -8 (1.9) 10 units
Sharks + 16 (1.9) 4 units. By doing this I reduce my liability of all 10 units on Toulouse to win by 9pts or more, to having a 6 unit bet on Toulouse to win by 9 pts or more, which I'm now comfortable with, but also I have a chance that the sharks + 16 bet wins too.
The 5pt winning margins generally around the hcap lines are priced around the 5/1, 6/1,mark, by getting movement in the hcap lines to create a 5 point or more spread at odds of 1.9 or better on both sides turns this into odds of 20/1 if both bets win
As we knew The final score was Sharks 8-20 Toulouse, a winning margin of 12 which meant both bets won.
Just wondered if anyone else gets involved with this type of thing ?
Sharkster Wrote: I have only heard this called middling, its something I consider regularly but never employ it as a tactic. I can see the attraction in that you are pretty much locking in a break even or losing less depending on how you approach it (minus the juice) and having an opportunity of 2 winning bets.
This usually pops into my head at halftimes where my bet is in good shape and the window or middle is significant . Its seems like each time I do consider it my bet loses , if I middle it would have been a break even.
An example of where you would have broken even rater than profit with this is the Castres Bulls game, that's the other side of it I guess. I did hear a pro discuss on a podcast that they would use this teqnique when they were on a bad run and felt like everything was running against them
I don't see anyone discuss it on the forum but maybe others use this strategy?
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- Sharkster
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2 months 1 week ago #2
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
Thanks Brent, hopefully this gets a bit of engagement.
Where the opertuinity arises to allow you take an early number with the possibilities of it moving in your favour, I wonder should you have 2 numbers in your estimation.
1 the team you are betting against goes full strength
2 the team you are betting against sends a weak
team.
For example I would have made castres favs against the bulls regardless of the team they sent so I took evens as it was always going to be value for me.
I guess you should middle when number has gone further than your estimate, for the bet to make sense
I'm pretty sure I heard mossman saying that alot of the time with these moves everyone gets on board with the move and the number actually goes to far.
The golden ticket would be to accurately identify these spots.
Hopefully we get a few responses. Perhaps this thread could be the place to post if anyone has ideas or things they spot on strategy
Where the opertuinity arises to allow you take an early number with the possibilities of it moving in your favour, I wonder should you have 2 numbers in your estimation.
1 the team you are betting against goes full strength
2 the team you are betting against sends a weak
team.
For example I would have made castres favs against the bulls regardless of the team they sent so I took evens as it was always going to be value for me.
I guess you should middle when number has gone further than your estimate, for the bet to make sense
I'm pretty sure I heard mossman saying that alot of the time with these moves everyone gets on board with the move and the number actually goes to far.
The golden ticket would be to accurately identify these spots.
Hopefully we get a few responses. Perhaps this thread could be the place to post if anyone has ideas or things they spot on strategy
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2 months 1 week ago #3
by Couch Critic
Twitter: @HDiemont
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
Nice thread guys.
Clear cut opportunitites like these don't come around so often so I always feel it's crucial to try and capitalise. Bulls game is the perfect example as you say.
To be able to "middle" to a degree my initial bet is usually twice my normal max play (of course this is just for a game I really feel strongly about). This allows me to use a quarter of my stake to play the middle. As such, I can still lose my max bet stake but back myself to not be so far off the ball. Best case scenario I hit the middle which delivers the double max return. In practice I do, however also end up taking additional cover in play if my team gets off to flyer and my nerves let me down!
Of course the problem with this method is if team news doesn't go your way. I remember some Bulls game a while back where I was knee deep and the cap just refused to budge. Real movement only came on the day of the match and I was sweating bullets by that stage.
I find this strategy works best with books that offer a cash out option as it does provide you with a bit of a safety net.
Some punters might just "cover off" completely when they have capitalised on the handicap significantly moving in their favour, thus basically only hoping for the middle but I always want a proper stake still riding on the result I identified as a proper value from the start.
Clear cut opportunitites like these don't come around so often so I always feel it's crucial to try and capitalise. Bulls game is the perfect example as you say.
To be able to "middle" to a degree my initial bet is usually twice my normal max play (of course this is just for a game I really feel strongly about). This allows me to use a quarter of my stake to play the middle. As such, I can still lose my max bet stake but back myself to not be so far off the ball. Best case scenario I hit the middle which delivers the double max return. In practice I do, however also end up taking additional cover in play if my team gets off to flyer and my nerves let me down!
Of course the problem with this method is if team news doesn't go your way. I remember some Bulls game a while back where I was knee deep and the cap just refused to budge. Real movement only came on the day of the match and I was sweating bullets by that stage.
I find this strategy works best with books that offer a cash out option as it does provide you with a bit of a safety net.
Some punters might just "cover off" completely when they have capitalised on the handicap significantly moving in their favour, thus basically only hoping for the middle but I always want a proper stake still riding on the result I identified as a proper value from the start.
Twitter: @HDiemont
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- Willho2
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2 months 1 week ago #4
by Willho2
Replied by Willho2 on topic Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
My 2 pence worth...
I dont think anyone should have a bet to cover your initial bet because it moved in your favour is a right way of doing things.
In fact, I think one should think of every bet as independent bet and only back it if its 'value', good price as such.
Ultimately, you are actually just placing another bet arent you???
If one always hedge or get a 'nice middle' or looking for an opportunity as such, you will ultimately limit your wins and potentially maximum your losses..this is more of a trading/betting thing for people who punt in running.
So for example if Sarries v Quins, Sarries at home. Market came out say its -10 Sarries.
You price it as -12 but a few iffy question mark regarding pitch, conditions, line up etc....yet there is a feeling that Quins might send a bunch of reserves. So take the -10 at your will if you can get on early price...
Team news is announce, Quins B team, its now Sarries -17. You got a bit of -10 and happy with yourself and think maybe I should back this Quins +17 as a bit of middling which is what this thread i guess is......
I think one should only back the +17 if you think Quins should be shorter than that and not because just to hedge. If you make the price with the new available news to you....you think Sarries should actually be -23...you should actually hammer this -17 again imo and not back the other side.
Ultimately, every bet is independent and every bet you place should be a value bet given the information available to you at that time.
There is no problem to me to get out of position too...so if I had backed Sarries -10 but team news announced.....Sarries mixed team, Quins strong. market is now -8. I would have problem cashing out the original bet.
Dont look to hedge for the sake of hedging because it limits your wins and maximum your losses. To be really good at deciphering what is a good price is really the skill you have or what you think it is, I think thats ultimately how good a handicapper you are.
Thats my thoughts anyway.
I dont think anyone should have a bet to cover your initial bet because it moved in your favour is a right way of doing things.
In fact, I think one should think of every bet as independent bet and only back it if its 'value', good price as such.
Ultimately, you are actually just placing another bet arent you???
If one always hedge or get a 'nice middle' or looking for an opportunity as such, you will ultimately limit your wins and potentially maximum your losses..this is more of a trading/betting thing for people who punt in running.
So for example if Sarries v Quins, Sarries at home. Market came out say its -10 Sarries.
You price it as -12 but a few iffy question mark regarding pitch, conditions, line up etc....yet there is a feeling that Quins might send a bunch of reserves. So take the -10 at your will if you can get on early price...
Team news is announce, Quins B team, its now Sarries -17. You got a bit of -10 and happy with yourself and think maybe I should back this Quins +17 as a bit of middling which is what this thread i guess is......
I think one should only back the +17 if you think Quins should be shorter than that and not because just to hedge. If you make the price with the new available news to you....you think Sarries should actually be -23...you should actually hammer this -17 again imo and not back the other side.
Ultimately, every bet is independent and every bet you place should be a value bet given the information available to you at that time.
There is no problem to me to get out of position too...so if I had backed Sarries -10 but team news announced.....Sarries mixed team, Quins strong. market is now -8. I would have problem cashing out the original bet.
Dont look to hedge for the sake of hedging because it limits your wins and maximum your losses. To be really good at deciphering what is a good price is really the skill you have or what you think it is, I think thats ultimately how good a handicapper you are.
Thats my thoughts anyway.
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- kompos
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2 months 1 week ago #5
by kompos
Replied by kompos on topic Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
I bet level stakes
On pre-match betting I take not less than 18/10 on the handicap of the team I fancy.
I was a points punter as well in the days of spread betting – the demise (in South Africa) of spreads also meant no more points betting.
During the game if the side I punted score 8 or more points quickly , I will place a bet at not worse than 9/10 on the opposition, effectively giving me a chance for a middle or at worse save me half my pre match punt.
Eg I bet team A at 18/10 pre match at +6.5 – if during the game I can get team B at say -4.5 at a price of at least 9/10, I will put half my original stake on that market.
Unfortunately I have now been limited by every asshole that has alternative handicap betting. Boyle sport has left the building and betx have given me a rude shock.
They have limited me to ZERO on horseracing and and to R3000 on sportsbets (this amount includes the stake)
I guess that means no more rugby betting for me
On pre-match betting I take not less than 18/10 on the handicap of the team I fancy.
I was a points punter as well in the days of spread betting – the demise (in South Africa) of spreads also meant no more points betting.
During the game if the side I punted score 8 or more points quickly , I will place a bet at not worse than 9/10 on the opposition, effectively giving me a chance for a middle or at worse save me half my pre match punt.
Eg I bet team A at 18/10 pre match at +6.5 – if during the game I can get team B at say -4.5 at a price of at least 9/10, I will put half my original stake on that market.
Unfortunately I have now been limited by every asshole that has alternative handicap betting. Boyle sport has left the building and betx have given me a rude shock.
They have limited me to ZERO on horseracing and and to R3000 on sportsbets (this amount includes the stake)
I guess that means no more rugby betting for me
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2 months 3 days ago #6
by Sharkster
Replied by Sharkster on topic Rugby Betting Strategy Thread
Some food for thought here. I think ultimately we should only be betting when we think the number offered is incorrect rather than any arbitrary method.
Anyway broadly related to strategy. I am looking to maybe move into other leagues and have super rugby and currie cup on the horizon. I am OK with urc and prem as I feel I have built up a knowledgebase which I can add to year on year.
My knowledge of super rugby is quite low so am thinking of doing some prep. Has anyone a methodology for pre season prep? Only thing I recall from the threads was alot of people finding it though to be profitable last season on sr
Anyway broadly related to strategy. I am looking to maybe move into other leagues and have super rugby and currie cup on the horizon. I am OK with urc and prem as I feel I have built up a knowledgebase which I can add to year on year.
My knowledge of super rugby is quite low so am thinking of doing some prep. Has anyone a methodology for pre season prep? Only thing I recall from the threads was alot of people finding it though to be profitable last season on sr
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