Rugby: URC Round 10, Gallagher Prem, Top 14 + other 24-26 January

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2 months 6 days ago #1 by Brent Graham
I am quite worn out after a hectic weekend of Investec Champions Cup action. The newsletter bet Bulls over 5.5 tries arrived with ease ( get on my mailing list here ) and I also hit the over 5.5 Racing tries hard but Sunday was a shocker with all of my bets going missing including Saracens -29.5 who were beaten by Castres, the biggest upset I have seen since Brighton.

A small profit overall but a feeling that things should have been better.

Here are the fixtures

Friday
• 21:35: Glasgow Warriors vs Connacht Rugby
• 21:35: Ospreys vs Benetton Treviso
Saturday
• 14:45: Lions vs Bulls
• 17:00: Scarlets vs Edinburgh Rugby
• 19:00: Leinster Rugby vs Stormers
• 19:15: Cardiff Rugby vs Sharks
• 21:35: Dragons vs Munster
Sunday
• 19:30: Ulster Rugby vs Zebre Rugby

I am putting together a blog and may try and handicap in the morning (6 Nations going to have a big influence, more on that in the blog)

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2 months 5 days ago #2 by Brent Graham
The URC Rd 10 Blog is up with a look at how many players clubs lose to the 6 Nations

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  • southpaw
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2 months 5 days ago - 2 months 5 days ago #3 by southpaw
Have to agree almost exhausted after last few days. One of my best rugby punting weekends for a long time. Only sarries spoilt the run.

Speaking of 6 nations-

Have fired into France -23 @ 10/11.

I cannot have Wales keeping within 30. They lost by over 30 at home to both Boks and Aus. Should hsvf lost to Boks by 50+ but SA almost lost interest. Also lost at home to Fiji.

Now they travel to Paris playing against a team whose stars are looking blood-thirsty in their club games and will bring that form to national side.

Hurt for Wales incoming…
Last edit: 2 months 5 days ago by southpaw.

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2 months 5 days ago #4 by Brent Graham
Handicap at Betx

If all Leinster squad members are out that +14.5 Stormers is tempting - would like confirmation of that though

Also hear that Lowe and Sheehan could be back from injury

Friday
• 21:35: Glasgow Warriors -8.5 vs Connacht
• 21:35: Ospreys -7.5 vs Benetton
Saturday
• 14:45: Lions +3.5 vs Bulls
• 17:00: Scarlets +2.5 vs Edinburgh
• 19:00: Leinster -14.5 vs Stormers
• 19:15: Cardiff +8.5 vs Sharks
• 21:35: Dragons +7.5 vs Munster
Sunday
• 19:30: Ulster -21.5 vs Zebre

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2 months 5 days ago #5 by TheAdmiral
For anyone with a paddy power or Betfair account they have released a line for Italy vs Scotland in u20 6N which I think is way off. Have taken a decent strike at plus and some on the board

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2 months 5 days ago #6 by Sharkster
I think I might wait later in the week before betting on any of the the Prem/Urc games that are affected by internationals.

I have the Bulls bigger favs that the 3 point gap available, they haven't been very impressive this year but on paper if both teams go full strength then bulls have the edge. Have taken Bulls -3.

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2 months 5 days ago #7 by Sharkster
Does anyone know how international players being available for clubs is determined?

Is it club by club , country or the league that decide?

It would be good to know if it is pre determined rather than have to wait on team news. Some drastic difference in some teams strength depending on whether they have internationals playing or not

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2 months 4 days ago - 2 months 4 days ago #8 by Pablo
Montpellier +16.5 @1.85 2u

France don't release premium players the week before 6 Nations, and most of ST french internationals are amongst those players (Baille, Mauvaka, Marchand, Flament, Meafou, Cros, Dupont, Ntamack, Ramos + Roumat injured). Still a powerful ST side expected but Montpellier are doing great this season, my expected average line was 12 points advantage for ST so value here with this circumstances.

Bulk of French premium players are from ST and also UBB so Lou ha+ may be valuable but I just wait.
Last edit: 2 months 4 days ago by Pablo.
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2 months 4 days ago #9 by Brent Graham

Sharkster wrote: Does anyone know how international players being available for clubs is determined?

Is it club by club , country or the league that decide?

It would be good to know if it is pre determined rather than have to wait on team news. Some drastic difference in some teams strength depending on whether they have internationals playing or not


I have not seen anything in black and white but would assume a week ahead of the 6 Nations none of the starting 23 will play for clubs unless perhaps returning from injury. Not clear on players outside the 23 but in the squad

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2 months 3 days ago #10 by GooseintheLoose
Only Leinster players from the Ireland squad that is available will be Dan Sheehan, James Lowe & Will Connors.

Stormers players returning after last week is: Manie Libbok, Warrick Gelant, Leolin Zas, Seabelo Senatla, Deon Fourie & BJ Dixon.

The Stormers +14.5 looks tempting.
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2 months 3 days ago #11 by Sharkster

GooseintheLoose wrote: Only Leinster players from the Ireland squad that is available will be Dan Sheehan, James Lowe & Will Connors.

Stormers players returning after last week is: Manie Libbok, Warrick Gelant, Leolin Zas, Seabelo Senatla, Deon Fourie & BJ Dixon.

The Stormers +14.5 looks tempting.


Something to consider too os that the team that leinster will play is still strong. Add in Lowe and sheehan to the mix.

Yes it is weaker than their first choice team but leinster have built a strong team for all occasions.

I'll sit on the fence for now but edging toward stormers I suppose.
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2 months 3 days ago #12 by Sharkster
Having said that they still can't win trophies recently

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2 months 3 days ago #13 by Brent Graham
Glasgow v Connacht moved to Sunday due to weather
No real handicap movement on any games

I have added weather links to the blog

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2 months 3 days ago #14 by Sharkster

Brent Graham wrote: Glasgow v Connacht moved to Sunday due to weather
No real handicap movement on any games

I have added weather links to the blog


Yeah severe storm hitting Ireland until Friday afternoon. Worth factoring in when betting. The worst of it should be gone by any match time but maybe keep an eye nonetheless.

Apparently going to be on a par with the worst storm ireland has ever had.
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2 months 2 days ago #15 by Raider
Brive +5.5 they would be fired up after losing at home last week.

@Pablo your thoughts please.

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2 months 2 days ago #16 by Pablo

Raider wrote: Brive +5.5 they would be fired up after losing at home last week.

@Pablo your thoughts please.


No value IMO, strong Oyonnax side with Ruru at 9. Brive without Da Silva, Lawes, Tuivuaka, Dridi but strong side. Line well set for me, should be an arm wrestler due to Oyonnax last run of good results.

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2 months 2 days ago #17 by TheAdmiral
Have taken Stormers +15 and Munster -7.

Leinster will likely have Snyman and Barrett playing but unlikely Slimani starts due to his call up. Leinster should win the game without too much bother but don’t think we’ll be able to pull away.

Munster’s squad is still very strong due to not too many Irish call ups. More than enough quality to deny dragons a losing bp

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2 months 2 days ago #18 by Sharkster
Have taken quins -4. Looking at starting teams I think quins overall stronger given impacts of 6n. Backline especially

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2 months 2 days ago #19 by Brent Graham
Money for the Stormers down to +10.5 from +14.5, I saw this move coming but so weary of those Stormers

A reminder that THE HANDICAP will be live Friday at 16h00

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2 months 2 days ago #20 by Sharkster
The money for Stormers makes sense but some kind of ptsd from betting against Leinster means none of my money wont be on them. I guess the aim is to have a better number than the closing number.

Its tricky in the prem this week also , Sarries are absolutely butchered by players injured and on international duty. They play Exeter who are nearly impossible to side with though.

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2 months 2 days ago #21 by RugbyEdgeTips
I had a stab at the potential team before announcement. That’s the best I could come up with. Some of the returning players may start on the bench.

Boyle
Sheehan
Clarkson
Deeny
Snyman
Soroka/Deegan
Connors
Cuhane
McGrath
Byrne
Lowe
Barrett
Turner
King/Tommy O’Brien
A Osbourne

Twitter @ RugbyEdgeTips

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2 months 1 day ago #22 by Brent Graham
THE HANDICAP will be live at 16h00 today - subscribe and set a reminder at the link below

Link to The Handicap URC Round 10 Preview

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2 months 1 day ago - 2 months 1 day ago #23 by doubler
Rugby Sevens

Men:
New Zealand vs Uruguay over 39.5 points @1.8

Women:
USA -9.5 against Great Britain @1.83

Twitter handle @_1Bitsy
Last edit: 2 months 1 day ago by doubler.

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2 months 1 day ago #24 by coil
Although Ireland is experiencing some rain the UK overnight had a little and it's dry today though overcast .

Going for Northampton on the plus 7.5 as my main interest tonight , the line for points is very low in the Ospreys game and will keep an eye on the weather etc.

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2 months 1 day ago #25 by Brent Graham
The 1st bet of the weekend is up in the URC Round 10 blog

Ospreys -6.5 at 10/11

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2 months 1 day ago #26 by mikebrown
2uOver 46.5 pts mont de marsan montauban
1u over 53.5 pts grenoble biarritz
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2 months 1 day ago #27 by Brent Graham
Leinster v Stormers Preview

Stormers +12.5 at 10/11 and win at 5/1

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2 months 1 day ago #28 by Eduard
Uruguay v Kenya 7s.

Uruguay beat NZ and Fiji in the group. Their final match is against Kenya, who lost both their games.

H2H

Of the last 6 H2Hs, Uruguay won 5 and drew the 6th.

Uruguay to win is available at 2.5-1 with the handicap set at +7.5

Not sure what the bookies know, but they seem to have the wrong favourite

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2 months 1 day ago #29 by doubler
I like that look Eduard, played the +8.5 on bet365 and sprinkled on the ML @3.5 both on bet365.

Also played USA TT over 14.5 points against Australia @2.04 on Sportsbet

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2 months 22 hours ago - 2 months 22 hours ago #30 by BuggerBoy
The standard of refereeing at the Perth Sevens has been absolutely horrendous. There have been numerous instances where teams playing under penalty advantage immediately turn the ball over and the referee just seemingly forgets to award the penalty. A number of new faces referee wise at this event so I wonder if they’ve just brought a load of new officials into the fold on the series. Either way, many matches where it looks like the referees have no clue how to apply the rules.
Last edit: 2 months 22 hours ago by BuggerBoy.

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2 months 21 hours ago #31 by southpaw
Lions Bulls over 55.5 @ 20/23

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2 months 20 hours ago #32 by Brent Graham
Lions v Bulls Preview

I am battling with this one and settled on either team by less than 8 at 23/20

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2 months 20 hours ago #33 by Pablo
Under 47.5 points pau-clermont @2 2

Bad weather in Pau, line for me in the low 40's
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2 months 19 hours ago #34 by sportsbettor
Leicester +1.5, 2.20, 1 unit

Good luck to all

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2 months 16 hours ago #35 by Jameson

southpaw wrote: Lions Bulls over 55.5 @ 20/23


Gone by the look of it. They're going for 3's (and missing) and cant be bothered to chase kicks .....

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2 months 15 hours ago #36 by southpaw
Yep overs dead. I felt like it was after 5 min. Last week was opposite, overs couldn’t miss. I’m okay with that, one of those things.

Might tail Brent with a Stormers overs play later.

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2 months 14 hours ago #37 by Jameson

southpaw wrote: Yep overs dead. I felt like it was after 5 min. Last week was opposite, overs couldn’t miss. I’m okay with that, one of those things.

Might tail Brent with a Stormers overs play later.


You were saying? :-)

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2 months 14 hours ago #38 by southpaw

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote: Yep overs dead. I felt like it was after 5 min. Last week was opposite, overs couldn’t miss. I’m okay with that, one of those things.

Might tail Brent with a Stormers overs play later.


You were saying? :-)


can't believe it, had completely written this one off. Penalty count went through the roof and points just flowed.

The old reverse psychology did the trick!

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2 months 14 hours ago #39 by Sharkster
Thankfully bulls cover. Even for the weekend.

Looking at teams in the prem Leicester are still able to field a decent team as are glos. I'll take a bit of the plus 4.5 on Leicester.

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2 months 12 hours ago #40 by Sharkster
Add Cardiff plus 10.5

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2 months 11 hours ago #41 by Pablo
Nice afternoon in France with Montpellier +16.5 and u47.5 in Pau arriving.

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2 months 10 hours ago #42 by Jameson

southpaw wrote:

Jameson wrote:

southpaw wrote: Yep overs dead. I felt like it was after 5 min. Last week was opposite, overs couldn’t miss. I’m okay with that, one of those things.

Might tail Brent with a Stormers overs play later.


You were saying? :-)


can't believe it, had completely written this one off. Penalty count went through the roof and points just flowed.

The old reverse psychology did the trick!


Profits thrown away on the Stormers ....

I now have to rely on the Dragons +11.5 to save the day ..... :-o

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2 months 10 hours ago #43 by Experienced Novice
Stormers. What a disaster of a team. Disgrace. Shame.

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2 months 10 hours ago #44 by coil
Really poor by the Stormers and I'm back to square one , I'm with you Jameson , Dragons on the plus .

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2 months 10 hours ago #45 by Sharkster
Turning into a poor weekend with Cardiff loss

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2 months 9 hours ago #46 by coil
FFS , Dragons worse than ever . Going into Sunday on the back foot.

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2 months 9 hours ago #47 by Jameson

coil wrote: FFS , Dragons worse than ever . Going into Sunday on the back foot.


A new low level - even for the Dregs.

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2 months 9 hours ago #48 by henryscat
It's not like it's a surprise. They're shocking week in week out

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2 months 9 hours ago #49 by Jameson

henryscat wrote: It's not like it's a surprise. They're shocking week in week out


Except for last week when if memory serves they lost in the 86th minute.

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2 months 8 hours ago #50 by Sharkster

Jameson wrote:

henryscat wrote: It's not like it's a surprise. They're shocking week in week out


Except for last week when if memory serves they lost in the 86th minute.


Well beaten by the 86th minute

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