Super Rugby Pacific Week 9, Champions & Challenge Cup Quarters 11-13 April

Overall a decent weekend for me after the newsletter acca landed at 11/1 - why are you not on my mailing list yet? CLICK HERE TO JOIN THE COMMUNITY

It was a weekend of lose shaves but given the final leg of the acca was Toulouse -22.5 and they won by 23 with a try with 2 minutes to go I cannot complain too much.

The Super Rugby Blog is up and running with the latest table, betting and a quick betting review of week 8

Here are my projected handicaps

Friday, 11 April 2025
09:05 – Hurricanes -2.5 vs Crusaders
11:35 – Waratahs +9.5 vs Chiefs

Saturday, 12 April 2025
06:35 – Blues -10.5 vs Moana Pasifika
09:05 – Highlanders -8.5 vs Fijian Drua
11:35 – Reds* -7.5 vs Brumbies

Champions Cup to follow

The Champions Cup QF blog is up with a wrap of last week (went 7/8 which actually came as a surprise)

Here are my handicap projections

Leinster Rugby -15.5 vs Glasgow Warriors
Bordeaux Bègles 12.5 vs Munster Rugby
Northampton Saints -7.5 vs Castres Olympique
RC Toulon +5.5 vs Stade Toulousain (Toulouse)

SRP caps are out and here is how they compare to mine

09:05 – Hurricanes -2.5 (+0.5) vs Crusaders
11:35 – Waratahs +9.5 (-8.5) vs Chiefs
06:35 – Blues -10.5 (-11.5)vs Moana Pasifika
09:05 – Highlanders -8.5 (-7.5) vs Fijian Drua
11:35 – Reds* -7.5 (-2.5) vs Brumbies

Differences in the Canes and Reds games and a small early double

2 units Canes win Reds -2.5 at 3.09/1 at WSB

This is based purely on my gut feel on prices and as more info becomes available (team news) my opinion could change

The handicaps are out and below I compare Betxchange caps in brackets next to mine


Leinster Rugby -15.5 (-14.5) vs Glasgow Warriors
Bordeaux Bègles 12.5 (-10.5) vs Munster Rugby
Northampton Saints -7.5 (-16.5) vs Castres Olympique
RC Toulon +5.5 (+5.5) vs Toulouse

Big difference is the Saints game - when I think what Castres 2nd team did to Saracens I have to believe there is value you there if, and this is a big if, if they want it

Not alot of action in the Champions Cup although Toulon into +3.5 from +5.5 on the back of forum support

Tonights THE HANDICAP live at 21h15 with The Mossman and The Admiral

Click here to watch on You Tube

Battling with blog updates again this week so here are the Friday morning bets

4 units under 57.5 0.96/1 Canes game
4 units Chiefs -10.5 at 9/10

Both at Betxchange

Hi guys, from Brent, we still got some issues with his blog article so posting on here


WARATAHS vs CHIEFS

Posted 11 April



The lads on THE HANDICAP our rugby betting show were all leaning Chiefs minus and this line looks likely to follow the overseas lead and move out to at least -12.5 Chiefs.

The Tah's have been decent at home but they are not in the Chiefs class in my opinion and this could get ugly.

The points line is 61.5



BET: 4 units Chiefs -10.5 at 9/10 at Betxchange*

*Note we are having issues updating these blogs and this bet was placed on the forum and may have moved



I haven’t tried to post these but will be on the road



BLUES vs MOANA PASIFIKA

Posted 11 April



Moana have had a great couple of weeks but I think they will run out of steam against a Blues side that is coming off a much needed narrow win over the Hurricanes. The home team are showing signs of coming to hand and I think they can beat the handicap of -12.5.

The points line is 65.5 and with conditions good there could be plenty of tries.

I will stick to the handicap though



BET: 4 units Blues -12.5 at 9/10 at Pokerbet





HIGHLANDERS vs DRUA

Posted 11 April



The Highlanders have not really impressed me this season but this looks a strong team and the Drua appear to be fading. The current handicap is -8.5 which is where I set it but as kick off approaches I am gaining confidence on the Highlanders.

The points line is 59.5 and I am not getting involved.



BET: 4 units Highlanders -8.5 at 9/10 at WSB



REDS v BRUMBIES

Posted 11 April



I handicapped this game Reds -7.5 so was surprised when I saw -2.5 on offer and perhaps more surprised that it has not moved much.

I am taking the 5/6 on the -2.5 at Sportingbet

Conditions don’t look too bad in Brisbane although some early rain is forecast so best to heck conditions closer to kick off and leave the 57.5 points line alone for now.



BET: 5 units Reds -2.5 at 5/6 at Sportingbet

Problem with this week's edition of The Handicap, Youtube issue that will need unravelling. If you missed the show and would like to watch then there it is only currently available on Twiitter / X feed @BrentGraham

Cheers guys

mackem wrote: Problem with this week's edition of The Handicap, Youtube issue that will need unravelling. If you missed the show and would like to watch then there it is only currently available on Twiitter / X feed @BrentGraham

Cheers guys

You Tube really is pathetic - was on the road today and got an email saying the show violated gambling policy - they took the show down and referred me to 9:47 in.

At that point The Admiral mentions Charlie Gamble and the Mossman also mentions him, I can only assume this somehow triggered something - what a joke

Just catching up with results - a mixed bag for me with unders in Canes game but Chiefs beaten by Waratahs - wow I never saw that coming

If you want to catch the show still here is the link on X

Investec Champions Cup blog updated


BET: 3 units Castres +16.5 at 9/10 at Hollywoodbets
BET: 0.5 units Castres win at 7/1 at WSB