Super Rugby Pacific Week 13, URC Week 17 + other rugby 9-11 May

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2 weeks 3 days ago #1 by Brent Graham
The Champions Cup semi-finals were 2 of the best quality and entertaining matches I have ever watched.

Betting wise I just missed out on Leinster overs (was that a try?) and the under 49.5 and Bordeaux win which came close but was always in trouble

I hit both bets in the Challenge Cup though and likewise in Super Rugby I was treading water with the early Reds 9/10 play the disappointment but the Newsletter Bet - Brumbies over 33.5 getting me out of it

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This week URC returns and I will have that blog running later.

The Super Rugby Week 13 Blog is already up and includes a wrap of last weeks bets, latest standings and betting and my handicap projections which I feel very little confidence in this week

Fijian Drua +10.5 vs Blues

NSW Waratahs +2.5 vs Queensland Reds

Crusaders -3.5 vs Chiefs

Western Force +7.5 vs ACT Brumbies

Have a great week everyone!

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2 weeks 3 days ago #2 by Southpaw
Totally agree re Chanpions Cup Brent. Both exhilarating matches, you couldn’t take your eyes off game.

Finals aren’t traditionally big scoring games but the way Bordeaux and Northampton both play at a ridiculously high tempo, the final is a points overs must for me. We just wait a few weeks for some opening lines.

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2 weeks 3 days ago #3 by Brent Graham
URC Blog up and running and includes latest table, betting and my handicap projections

Caps below and a few comments on the matches in the blog

Hollywoodbets Sharks -16.5 vs Ospreys

Munster -9.5 vs Ulster

Vodacom Bulls -16.5 vs Cardiff

DHL Stormers -22.5 vs Dragons

Leinster -25.5 vs Zebre Parma

Benetton +5.5 vs Glasgow Warriors

Connacht -6.5 vs Edinburgh

Emirates Lions -12.5 vs Scarlets

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2 weeks 3 days ago #4 by TheAdmiral
Drua blues +7
Tahs reds -3 (bookies will have this as +4 i think)
Saders chiefs -2
Force Brumbies +5

Sharks ospreys -15
Munster Ulster -5
Bulls Cardiff -21
Leinster Zebre -23
Stormers dragons -28
Benetton Glasgow (if Glasgow still weak) +8
Connacht Edinburgh -4
Lions scarlets -8
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2 weeks 2 days ago #5 by Brent Graham
SRP Blog Updated

Betxchange are out with their handicaps in brackets next to mine



Fijian Drua +10.5 (+5.5) vs Blues - 5 point difference, Blues could rotate but given their position on the log I don't think they can afford to lose and they have a bye in 2 weeks - no bet for now though

NSW Waratahs +2.5 (+6.5) vs Queensland Reds - 4 point difference, I was not confident on this one so also a no bet for now

Crusaders -3.5 (-2.5) vs Chiefs

Western Force +7.5 (+6.5) vs ACT Brumbies

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2 weeks 2 days ago #6 by R3V3R3NT_
Blues -5.5 is wild. No reason to rest anyone.

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2 weeks 2 days ago #7 by R3V3R3NT_
Ohh I thought Blues at home for some reason. Nvm. Still -5.5 seems solid assuming Christie remains in purgatory.

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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 2 days ago #8 by sportsbettor
No opinion on that game yet. But Blues will be very desperate. A loss would be a major blow to their playoff hopes.

Other than any All Black enforced stand downs. I expect a near full strength or full strength team.
Last edit: 2 weeks 2 days ago by sportsbettor.

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2 weeks 2 days ago #9 by Sharkster
I had the ospreys +12 so the current time number is something that's interesting. I don't see any chance that ospreys won't go to sa full strength as champions cup place in in reach.

Sharks though have been some what ok over the last couple of games and stayed in the fight for the 80.

I won't take any bet yet

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2 weeks 2 days ago #10 by Brent Graham
URC Blog Updated

The handicaps are out and below the Betxhange caps in brackets next to mine



Hollywoodbets Sharks -16.5 (-16.5) vs Ospreys

Munster -9.5 (-7.5) vs Ulster - believe this line may have moved from +10/11

Vodacom Bulls -16.5 (-16.5) vs Cardiff

DHL Stormers -22.5 (-29.5) vs Dragons - 7 point difference but I can understand it, Dragons nothing to play for may send youngsters

Leinster -25.5 (-25.5) vs Zebre Parma

Benetton +5.5 (+4.5) vs Glasgow Warriors - Glasgow team news will be crucial

Connacht -6.5 (-5.5) vs Edinburgh

Emirates Lions -12.5 (-8.5) vs Scarlets - 4 point difference, Scarlets have more to play for

A bit surpised just the 2 big differences - no way I am backing Dragons on the plus though :lol:

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2 weeks 2 days ago #11 by TheAdmiral
Just realised I have the wrong sign for Benetton Glasgow, meant to be -8 for Benetton which maybe was a bit ambitious, but if Glasgow field a similar team to their recent matches Benetton are favs here imo

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2 weeks 2 days ago #12 by Southpaw
Biggest cap of weekend could actually still be the pick of the lot. Stormers beat a loaded Benetton side by 50. If Stormers go full strength, and Dragons play b side, and weather is ok, this will be a massacre.

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2 weeks 1 day ago #13 by Brent Graham
URC Blog updated with latest handicaps

Your Stormers have started to run South gone -32.5 from -29.5 at Betx

Also moves for Benetton +4.5 to +1.5, Leinster -25.5 to -27.5 and Bulls -16.5 to -18.5

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2 weeks 15 hours ago #14 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Team lists are out and you can access them on the blog

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2 weeks 3 hours ago #15 by Brent Graham
SRP Blog updated with weather links and points lines

I was on the road today and I see the Drua v Blues points line down from 56.5 to 53.5

Waratahs into +2.5 from +6.5

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1 week 6 days ago #16 by Sharkster
I'm pretty sure I did something similar last year near the end of the season but I'm backing ospreys again +19

Think it was the bulls last year and they lost by lots not hoping for repeat
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1 week 6 days ago #17 by Brad Breath

Sharkster wrote: I'm pretty sure I did something similar last year near the end of the season but I'm backing ospreys again +19


I've taken the same, think it's far too wide.
Also a few beers on Ospreys DNB @ 13

Others I've taken this week:
Drua + 8.5 @ 1.85
Tahs +5.5 @ 1.91
Chiefs +3.5 @ 1.91
Scarlets +9.5 @ 1.91

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1 week 6 days ago #18 by Sharkster

Brad Breath wrote:

Sharkster wrote: I'm pretty sure I did something similar last year near the end of the season but I'm backing ospreys again +19


I've taken the same, think it's far too wide.
Also a few beers on Ospreys DNB @ 13

Others I've taken this week:
Drua + 8.5 @ 1.85
Tahs +5.5 @ 1.91
Chiefs +3.5 @ 1.91
Scarlets +9.5 @ 1.91


Yeah from what I've seen it appears to have jumped out after Sharks team news and moving a little back now as I'd say some people thinking it's a few points to many

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1 week 6 days ago #19 by Brent Graham
Hi guys THE HANDICAP is live at 21h00 tonight

It will be out on You Tube but no guarantees it stays up and our next ban will be longer so suggest you watch through X or Facebook

Click here to watch on Facebook

or

follow me on X and hit the bell

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1 week 6 days ago #20 by Brent Graham
SRP Blog Updated with Friday morning bets

Blues -6.5 0.93/1
Under 54.5 Waratahs v Reds at 0.97/1

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1 week 6 days ago #21 by Brent Graham
Sharks v Ospreys Preview

I think we get points - over 52.5 at 19/20

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1 week 5 days ago #22 by sportsbettor
Couple for tonight for NSW v Reds


-NSW Waratahs to lead at halftime 2.35, DNB, 2 units

-NSW Waratahs to win the game, 2.45, includes extra time, 2 units

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1 week 5 days ago #23 by shaft
For the Blues match. Riccitelli 1st try @ 12/1 and anytime @ 12/10

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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1 week 5 days ago #24 by Southpaw
Out all morning so will skip the 2 SR games, but also like overs in Durban.

Over 52.5 @ 10/11

Considering splitting stake on Sharks overs but need a few more bookies to price up.

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1 week 5 days ago #25 by Jameson
The dreaded 'no score in 20 mins' rears its ugly head once again .......

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1 week 5 days ago #26 by Southpaw
Waratahs reds 1st try Porecki 12/1

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1 week 5 days ago #27 by Matador

Brent Graham wrote: SRP Blog Updated with Friday morning bets

Blues -6.5 0.93/1
Under 54.5 Waratahs v Reds at 0.97/1


Thanks Brent for the Blues confidence! Great start to the weekend.

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1 week 5 days ago #28 by Brent Graham
Cheers Matador a nice start

Waiting for points lines in URC but have updated blog with an Edinburgh win bet at 21/10

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1 week 5 days ago #29 by Brent Graham
Bulls v Cardiff Preview

Firing over 56.5 at 0.89/1 - reckon this starts around 60

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1 week 5 days ago #30 by Southpaw
BULLS over 38.5 points @ 10/11

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1 week 5 days ago #31 by sitho1983
OSPREYS +10.5
MUNSTER Totals OVER 50.5
Leicester Tigers Totals OVER 53.5

Final Odds @ 8.24

Hollywoodbets Bet Code
1016358378

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1 week 5 days ago #32 by Connachtrugby0
Gianluca Gnecchi. An absolute wanker
Game at walking pace

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1 week 5 days ago #33 by Jameson
I know its humid , but this is sooooo slllloooowwwwwwwwwwwwwww

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1 week 5 days ago #34 by Jameson
One of the worst games of rugby that I have had the displeasure of witnessing in the last 50 years.

No urgency whatsoever and that last play to take an easy three? Did the crowd pay to get in to watch this??

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1 week 5 days ago #35 by sitho1983
16:00
Half Time Totals Over 28.5
Bulls v Cardiff Rugby

18:15
Totals Over 49.5
Benetton v Glasgow Warriors

18:30
Totals Over 65.5
Harlequins v Gloucester

20:35
Totals Over 50.5
Connacht v Edinburgh


Final Odds @ 11.36

Hollywoodbets Bet Code
1016636284

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1 week 5 days ago #36 by Brent Graham
SRP Blog updated

Crusaders v Chiefs bet up and I like unders again

A mixed bag for me tonight with the Sharks game disappointing (how did I fall into the overs trap again) but I clawed some back on overs in Munster v Ulster

As expected Bulls line out to 60.5

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1 week 4 days ago #37 by sportsbettor
Force v Brumbies


-Force to lead at halftime, DNB, 2.45, 3 units

-Force to win the game, includes extra time, 2.55, 3 units

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1 week 4 days ago #38 by Bookie Basher

sitho1983 wrote: OSPREYS +10.5
MUNSTER Totals OVER 50.5
Leicester Tigers Totals OVER 53.5

Final Odds @ 8.24

Hollywoodbets Bet Code
1016358378


Unlucky with the treble, you hit the post last week if memory serves me correctly as well!

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1 week 4 days ago #39 by Miiiiiiighty
That was one of the worst performances from 39' on that I ever saw.

Bad passes, awful game decisions ( man that #9 was awful.. ), 0 IQ plays...

Going 0-32 isn't something you often see from a supposedly top team.

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1 week 4 days ago #40 by Southpaw

Southpaw wrote: BULLS over 38.5 points @ 10/11


Added Bulls over 5.5 tries @ 10/11

Heavily invested now. Need bulls to fly out blocks early,

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1 week 4 days ago - 1 week 4 days ago #41 by Jameson
Stormers game, 7 - 0 after 1 min, 7 - 0 after 31.

Now they are going for 3 pointers.

Conditions arnt this bad ffs!

Yup I'm on overs ......

EDIT: never in doubt!
Last edit: 1 week 4 days ago by Jameson.

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1 week 4 days ago #42 by Sharkster
Been an OK weekend so far.

Anyone see any bookies with points lines for Exeter v saints tomorrow?

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1 week 3 days ago #43 by Brent Graham
A good day yesterday with the overs landing at Loftus and well done South with your Bulls points and Tries plays

Disappointed to miss the 12/1 newsletter acca by 1 leg - Benetton overs dropping me

1 game today and will finish off the preview this morning

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1 week 3 days ago #44 by Brent Graham
Lions v Scarlets Preview

Clear in Joburg although a bit windy this morning

Firing into this one

Scarlets win and over 56.5 at 44/10
Scarlets over 25.5 at 10/11

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1 week 3 days ago #45 by Southpaw

Brent Graham wrote: Lions v Scarlets Preview

Clear in Joburg although a bit windy this morning

Firing into this one

Scarlets win and over 56.5 at 44/10
Scarlets over 25.5 at 10/11


Similar thoughts to you Brent and also taken the Scarlets over 25.5.

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1 week 3 days ago #46 by Connachtrugby0
68.5

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1 week 3 days ago #47 by Pablo
U44.5 Montpellier-Bordeaux @2 2u

Terrible weather, line for me should be below 40 points.

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1 week 3 days ago - 1 week 3 days ago #48 by TheAdmiral
Already on Scarlets + and ML but added a small play on scarlets over 3.5 tries @ 2.5

Lions effectively out of the race and scarlets will have a 99% chance of making the top 8 with a win today
Last edit: 1 week 3 days ago by TheAdmiral.

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1 week 3 days ago #49 by coil
Very stiff with the acca Brent, som top tipping there , how could Glasgow only provide a single try !!

Loving the unders Pablo in Montpellier tonight , I see the reason why lads are liking Scarlets but eish , no bet there for me yet

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1 week 3 days ago #50 by Jameson
Went in big(ish) Lions game over 56.5. Its now 60.5.

Would be nice for a few early scores!

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