Stage 3 of the Tour de France starts in Granollers and finishes 195.9 kilometres later in Les Angles. We take a look at the stage from a betting angle.
Stage 2 Review
There wasn't quite the early drama I expected in Stage 2, but it was nonetheless a fascinating race.
In the end, it was the UAE Team Emirates XRG duo of Isaac del Toro and Tadej Pogačar who came to the line together, just ahead of Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard, with all four riders receiving the same finishing time.
The breakaway took some time to establish itself before three riders eventually escaped, although it was clear throughout that several teams were determined to keep the move under control.
As expected, UAE dominated once the race reached the first of the three finishing circuits. Somewhat surprisingly, however, Pogačar resisted launching an early attack, instead waiting for the final ramp to the finish.
At one stage it looked as though Del Toro might ride clear, before appearing to fade just as Pogačar prepared to attack. Then, with Vingegaard briefly showing signs of weakness, Pogačar chose not to force the issue and instead rode alongside his teammate, allowing Del Toro to take the stage victory.
While Pogačar's second place meant my stage bet didn't win, I was able to take advantage of the World Sports Betting Money Back for Second promotion, which applies on every stage of this year's Tour.
Classification Update
Vingegaard continues to lead the general classification, but now by just six seconds from Pogačar, who moves into second overall.
Evenepoel sits 15 seconds off the lead in third, with Del Toro up to fourth. At this early stage, the top ten riders are still separated by less than a minute.
In the outright market:
- Tadej Pogačar has shortened again to 1.25.
- Jonas Vingegaard is trading around 4.50.
- Paul Seixas is now 10.00.
- The remainder of the field can be backed at 19.00 and bigger.
Del Toro also leads both the Points Classification and the Young Rider Classification, while Molenaar currently wears the King of the Mountains jersey.
Jasper Philipsen remains the 2.50 favourite for the Green Jersey, while Pogačar is also 2.50 to win the Polka Dot jersey.
Stage 3 Profile
Stage 3 covers 195.9 kilometres, and the climbing begins almost immediately.
The riders gradually ascend from the start before reaching the first classified climb, the Category 3 Côte de Saint-Féliu de Codines, which measures 7.6 kilometres at 4.5%.
The road continues to rise for much of the morning before the intermediate sprint arrives at 98.4 kilometres.
The key obstacle of the day is the Category 1 Col de Toses, a demanding 9.3-kilometre climb averaging 6.5%, with several significantly steeper sections near the summit.
A long descent follows before the riders tackle the Category 3 Col du Calvaire, measuring 11.4 kilometres at 4.1%.
The final kilometres remain rolling before the race concludes with a punchy 1.7-kilometre climb averaging 6.5% into Les Angles.
What to Expect
At first glance this looks like another day for the general classification riders, but I think there is more to it than that.
There will be plenty of teams desperate to get riders into the breakaway, and I'm not convinced either Visma-Lease a Bike or UAE Team Emirates XRG will be particularly enthusiastic about controlling what promises to be a demanding day featuring more than 4,000 metres of climbing.
The final climb is selective, but not quite difficult enough to guarantee significant time gaps between the favourites.
Because of that, I wouldn't be surprised to see both Vingegaard and Pogačar keep something in reserve, with neither team willing to commit too many domestiques to chasing throughout the day.
I expect a fierce battle to establish the breakaway, but given the uphill start, it should form relatively quickly. If a strong group containing several proven climbers and breakaway specialists gets clear, I think they have every chance of staying away.
Stage 3 Betting
Stage Winner Odds
- Tadej Pogačar – 2.50
- Mathias Vacek – 12.00
- Mathieu van der Poel – 13.00
- Isaac del Toro – 19.00
- Romain Grégoire – 19.00
- 26.00 and bigger the remainder.
Verdict
The bookmakers are taking no chances by installing Pogačar as the clear favourite, and if the peloton brings the race back together, he is undoubtedly the rider to beat.
However, I think this stage sets up beautifully for a powerful breakaway.
The combination of a difficult opening, a long Category 1 climb and a finish that isn't quite selective enough for the GC teams to go all-in makes this one of the better opportunities for the escape artists during the opening week.
Rather than backing the favourite at a short price, I'm prepared to take on the market and look for value among the riders likely to make the break.
Suggested Bets
Ben Healy – 26.00
Healy has been described by his team manager as the best breakaway rider in the peloton, and this profile looks tailor-made for him. If he gets into the right move, he has both the climbing ability and the engine to stay away all the way to Les Angles.
Lenny Martinez – 67.00
Martinez lost time on Stage 1 but looked very strong on Stage 2. My only concern is whether the peloton allows him into the break, as a successful raid could quickly move him back into overall contention. If he is given enough freedom, he represents excellent value.
Michael Storer – 101.00
Like Martinez, Storer could find himself in the breakaway, although he poses far less of a threat in the general classification. This demanding climbing profile suits him perfectly and triple-figure odds make him impossible to ignore.
Disclaimer: Prices were correct at the time of writing but are subject to change.
