F1 heads to the principality this weekend for the Monaco Grand Prix, the most prestigious race on the calendar and the one weekend of the season where qualifying matters more than the race itself.
Kimi Antonelli arrives in the South of France on the back of four consecutive race wins, having opened up a commanding lead at the top of both championships, and looks essentially unstoppable. The streets around the harbour, however, have a habit of producing the unexpected. We preview the weekend and lay down a couple of suggested bets.
DRIVERS CHAMPIONSHIP UPDATE
Kimi Antonelli has built a commanding lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship on 131 points, having won the last four races on the bounce to put serious daylight between himself and the rest of the field. Teammate George Russell is second on 88 points, with Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton sitting third and fourth for Ferrari on 75 and 72 respectively. Lando Norris is fifth on 58 points, with Oscar Piastri sixth on 48 and Max Verstappen languishing in seventh on just 43, a far cry from his usual position in the title fight.
Antonelli is the heavy favourite for the title at 1.50, with Russell the next-shortest price at 3.20. Norris has been backed into 15.00 despite sitting fifth in the standings, while Piastri is at 21.00 and Leclerc, Verstappen and Hamilton are all priced out at longer odds of 26.00, 34.00 and 41.00 respectively. The market is essentially telling us this is Antonelli’s to lose.
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CONSTRUCTORS CHAMPIONSHIP UPDATE
Mercedes are running away with the Constructors’ Championship on 219 points, having scored consistently with both cars across every round of the season so far. Ferrari are second on 147, with McLaren a clear third on 106. Red Bull Racing are languishing in fourth on just 57 points, an unfamiliar position for a team that has set the benchmark in recent years, but which has clearly struggled with the new regulations.
The bookies have Mercedes as overwhelming favourites at 1.10 to seal the title, with McLaren out at 7.00, Ferrari at 17.00, and Red Bull as rank outsiders at 67.00.
Click here for betting on Constructors Championship winner
Last Race – Canadian GP 2026
The Canadian Grand Prix in Montreal produced another commanding Antonelli victory, with the Italian extending his championship lead with yet another controlled front-running drive. Lewis Hamilton was second for Ferrari, with Max Verstappen producing a strong drive to finish third for Red Bull on a circuit that has historically suited him. Charles Leclerc was fourth for Ferrari, with Isack Hadjar rounding out the top five in what was a really impressive result for the young Frenchman. Lando Norris and George Russell both failed to finish.
Monaco GP 2025
Last year’s Monaco Grand Prix saw Lando Norris convert pole position into a famous victory for McLaren, with Charles Leclerc second on home soil for Ferrari and Oscar Piastri completing the podium in third. Max Verstappen was fourth for Red Bull, with Lewis Hamilton fifth for Ferrari. It was a disappointing weekend for Mercedes by contrast, with George Russell only managing 11th and a young Kimi Antonelli a long way down the order in 18th, although the Italian has clearly come a very long way in the 12 months since.
The Circuit de Monaco needs little introduction: a 3.337-kilometre street layout snaking through the principality, featuring 19 corners and almost no overtaking opportunities once the lights go out. That is precisely why qualifying is so often decisive at Monaco. The data over the last decade shows that pole position converts to victory at a higher rate here than at almost any other venue on the calendar. Tyre management, qualifying pace, and the mental discipline to avoid the barriers across 78 laps are the deciding factors around the Mediterranean.
BETTING (2026 Monaco GP) – Click here to bet
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) 2.90
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) 5.00
Lando Norris (McLaren) 6.00
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) 6.50
George Russell (Mercedes) 6.50
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing) 11.00
Oscar Piastri (McLaren) 13.00
Betting and Verdict:
Antonelli has been completely untouchable since the start of the season, winning the last four races on the bounce and only failing to win the opening round, where he finished second. His Mercedes is the class of the field, and he looks essentially unstoppable right now. Although Monaco is a different beast with qualifying so critical, his sheer level of form makes him very hard to look past, and at 6.50 he looks generously priced for a driver who has won the last four.
Suggested Bet: Kimi Antonelli to win at 6.50
I also like a Norris top three. Monaco is all about qualifying, and the McLaren driver has not qualified lower than 6th all season, with his two best Saturday performances coming in the last two races, 4th in Miami and 3rd in Canada. We saw what he could do here last year, qualifying on pole and converting that into a famous Monaco victory. With McLaren coming into form and Norris finding his Saturday rhythm, a top-three finish on a track he loves looks plenty achievable at 2.10.
Suggested Bet: Lando Norris Top 3 at 2.10.
Click here for all Monaco Grand Prix Betting Markets
Note: All prices correct at the time of writing but are subject to change
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