The PGA Tour heads to Florida for another signature event as the field takes on Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. One of the toughest non-major tests on the calendar, Bay Hill consistently rewards elite ball-striking, patience, and strong course management. Below, we assess the week from a betting perspective and highlight four selections.
The Course – Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Bay Hill plays as a par 72 measuring 7,466 yards (6,827 metres) and is one of the most demanding setups on the PGA Tour. While length off the tee is an advantage, it is not the only path to success.
The course features 84 bunkers, thick Bermuda rough, and water in play on nine holes. Tee shots must be positioned carefully, as aggressive driving can quickly lead to penalty strokes. Approach play is equally demanding, with firm greens that require precise distance control.
Wind is often a significant factor at Bay Hill, particularly on the exposed back nine. The closing stretch, especially the par-5 16th and water-lined 18th regularly produces drama and rewards players who manage risk intelligently.
Historically, Bay Hill favours:
- Elite tee-to-green players
- Strong long-iron hitters
- Players comfortable in windy Florida conditions
- Golfers with proven course form
Winning scores often hover between 5-under and 15-under depending on conditions, underlining how penal the layout can be.
Previous winners
2025 Russell Henley (United States) -11 1 stroke
2024 Scottie Scheffler (United States) -15 5 strokes
2023 Kurt Kitayama (United States) -9 1 stroke
2022 Scottie Scheffler (United States) -5 1 stroke
2021 Bryson DeChambeau (United States) -11 1 stroke
Betting (Arnold Plamer Invitational, selected players) – Click here to bet
Scottie Scheffler – 4.25
Rory McIlroy – 11.00
Tommy Fleetwood – 21.00
Matt Fitzpatrick – 26.00
Xander Schauffele – 26.00
Collin Morikawa – 26.00
Shane Lowry – 46.00
Jacob Bridgeman – 61.00
Justin Thomas – 67.00
Jordan Spieth – 71.00
Prices correct at time of writing but subject to change
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Selections
Shane Lowry at 46.00
Lowry was extremely unlucky not to win the Cognizant Classic last week after leading late into Sunday before a costly finish. Prior to that, he had been building steady form with finishes of 24th and 8th.
He has finished inside the top 10 in his last two appearances at Bay Hill, proving his game suits this demanding layout. Given his control in windy conditions and elite iron play, 46.00 looks fair enough and well done to the punters who took the early 61.00.
Suggested Bet: Shane Lowry each way at 46.00
Rory McIlroy at 11.00
McIlroy has an exceptional record at Bay Hill. Since 2017, he has missed the top 15 just once. His record includes one victory, multiple top-five finishes, and consistent contention.
He arrives off a runner-up finish at the Genesis Invitational and remains one of the best long-iron players on tour, a critical skill at Bay Hill.
Suggested Bet: Rory McIlroy each way at 11.00
Jacob Bridgeman at 61.00
Bridgeman comes in full of confidence after securing his maiden PGA Tour win at the Genesis Invitational. That victory followed a string of strong results, including a top ten and top five in the weeks prior.
Bay Hill demands strong tee-to-green play, which has been a key strength in his recent run. At 61.00, he offers genuine upside if he carries momentum into Florida.
Suggested Bet: Jacob Bridgeman each way at 61.00
Jordan Spieth at 71.00
Spieth represents strong value at 71.00. While Bay Hill is a demanding test, it rewards creativity and short-game brilliance, two areas where Spieth excels and he has 2 top 5’s in his last 3 starts here.
He has shown flashes of strong ball-striking this season and, when confident with the putter, remains capable of beating elite fields. On a course where scrambling and clutch putting matter late on Sunday, Spieth’s skill set makes him an intriguing outsider.
Suggested Bet: Jordan Spieth each way at 71.00
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