The first action in the Nations Championship on Saturday comes from Wellington where New Zealand take on Italy and the pre-match handicap is a big number
New Zealand vs Italy, Saturday 11th July, Wellington, KO 07:10 (South African time)
Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (RA), Luke Pearce (RFU)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)
Weather Forecast – Wellington
New Zealand:
The All Blacks took on France in the very first Nations Championship match in Christchurch in Round 1. France went ahead with a try in the second minute and it turned into a thrilling battle with New Zealand, who led 19-12 at half time eventually edging it 34-32, scoring 5 tries to 4 in Dave Rennie’s first game in charge. Cam Roigard and Will Jordan both scored 2 tries a piece and Peter Lakai also went over. With France under strength they were given 12.5 points on the bookmakers main handicap line so this was one for the plus backers. The game was played under the roof and the total points line was 57.5 so overs was the way to go.
The All Blacks previous action came in the November 2025 internationals. It started well as they beat Ireland (26-13) in Chicago and Scotland (25-17) at Murrayfield. NZ then crashed (33-19) to England at Twickenham before rounding off the year by thrashing Wales (52-26) in Cardiff.
In the Nations Championship outright betting markets New Zealand can be backed at 4/1 to win the title with Hollywoodbets who make the Springboks 12/10 favourites
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: R1 France (h) won 34-32, R2 Italy (h), R3 Ireland (h), R4 Scotland (a), R5 Wales (a), R6 England (a)
Italy:
Italy began their Nations Championship with a clash with Japan in Tokyo and they went down 27-10. Juan Ignacio Brex scored a fifth minute try for Italy but Japan quickly got on top and led 17-10 at half time and Italy failed to add to their tally in the second half.
In the Six Nations earlier this year Italy won 2 and lost 3 of their matches and finished in fourth place. Their wins came in home games, against Scotland (18-15) and a first ever victory over England 23-18. Away from home they lost to Ireland (20-13), France (33-8) and Wales (31-17)
In the North vs South November internationals in 2025 Italy beat Australia (26-19), lost to the Boks (32-14) and beat Chile (34-19).
In the Nations Championship outright betting markets Italy 400/1 rank outsiders to win the title with Hollywoodbets
Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: R1 Japan (a) lost 27-10, R2 New Zealand (a), R3 Australia (a), R4 South Africa (h), R5 Argentina (h), R6 Fiji (h)
Recent Head to Head
Nov 2024 INT Turin Italy 11–29 New Zealand
Sep 2023 RWC Lyon New Zealand 96-17 Italy
Team News
New Zealand: tbc
Italy: tbc
The Betting
Average early show, subject to change
New Zealand -34.5 points at 9/10
Italy +34.5 points at 9/10
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
Betting Angle
To follow
Bets: to follow
More Rugby Bets
This week we have previews and Brent Graham’s bets for New Zealand vs Italy, Australia vs France and South Africa vs Scotland. More Nations Series and World U20 Championship bets from Brent and other members of our community will be posted on the weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.
Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.
