The first action in the Nations Championship on Saturday comes from Wellington where New Zealand take on Italy and the pre-match handicap is a big number

New Zealand vs Italy, Saturday 11th July, Wellington, KO 07:10 (South African time)

Referee: Luc Ramos (FFR)
Assistant Referees: Nic Berry (RA), Luke Pearce (RFU)
TMO: Ben Whitehouse (WRU)

Weather Forecast – Wellington 

New Zealand:

The All Blacks took on France in the very first Nations Championship match in Christchurch in Round 1. France went ahead with a try in the second minute and it turned into a thrilling battle with New Zealand, who led 19-12 at half time eventually edging it 34-32, scoring 5 tries to 4 in Dave Rennie’s first game in charge. Cam Roigard and Will Jordan both scored 2 tries a piece and Peter Lakai also went over. With France under strength they were given 12.5 points on the bookmakers main handicap line so this was one for the plus backers. The game was played under the roof and the total points line was 57.5 so overs was the way to go.

The All Blacks previous action came in the November 2025 internationals. It started well as they beat Ireland (26-13) in Chicago and Scotland (25-17) at Murrayfield. NZ then crashed (33-19) to England at Twickenham before rounding off the year by thrashing Wales (52-26) in Cardiff.

In the Nations Championship outright betting markets New Zealand can be backed at 4/1 to win the title with Hollywoodbets who make the Springboks 12/10 favourites

Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: R1 France (h) won 34-32, R2 Italy (h), R3 Ireland (h), R4 Scotland (a), R5 Wales (a), R6 England (a)

Italy:

Italy began their Nations Championship with a clash with Japan in Tokyo and they went down 27-10. Juan Ignacio Brex scored a fifth minute try for Italy but Japan quickly got on top and led 17-10 at half time and Italy failed to add to their tally in the second half.

In the Six Nations earlier this year Italy won 2 and lost 3 of their matches and finished in fourth place. Their wins came in home games, against Scotland (18-15) and a first ever victory over England 23-18. Away from home they lost to Ireland (20-13), France (33-8) and Wales (31-17)

In the North vs South November internationals in 2025 Italy beat Australia (26-19), lost to the Boks (32-14) and beat Chile (34-19).

In the Nations Championship outright betting markets Italy 400/1 rank outsiders to win the title with Hollywoodbets

Nations Championship Results and Fixtures: R1 Japan (a) lost 27-10, R2 New Zealand (a), R3 Australia (a), R4 South Africa (h), R5 Argentina (h), R6 Fiji (h)

Recent Head to Head

Nov 2024 INT Turin Italy 11–29 New Zealand

Sep 2023 RWC Lyon New Zealand 96-17 Italy

Team News

New Zealand: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Billy Proctor, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leroy Carter, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (captain), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Wallace Sititi, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 4 Sam Darry, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot.
Replacements: 16 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Anton Segner, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Josh Moorby

Italy: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Malik Faissal, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Louis Lynagh, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Ross Vintcent, 5 Andrea Zambonin, 4 Niccolò Cannone, 3 Marco Riccioni, 2 Tommaso Di Bartolomeo, 1 Danilo Fischetti.

Replacements: Gianmarco Lucchesi, Mirco Spagnolo, Muhamed Hasa, Giulio Marini, Federico Ruzza, Riccardo Favretto, Alessandro Garbisi, Leonardo Marin

The Betting

Updated 10 July 12h17

New Zealand -34.5 points at 9/10

Italy +34.5 points at 9/10

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

Betting Angle

Bet: New Zealand v Italy (posted 10 July 12h19)

2.5 units (1–5): New Zealand over 7.5 tries at 1.89 with PokerBet.

New Zealand are 32.5-point favourites, with the handicap having come in from 34.5 earlier in the week. The total points line sits at 64.5, but I'm in agreement with Southpaw on the Goodforthegame forum that the better way into this match is via the try markets. With good conditions expected in Wellington, I'm backing the All Blacks to cross for eight or more tries.

 
 

More Rugby Bets

This week we have previews and Brent Graham’s bets for New Zealand vs Italy, Australia vs France and South Africa vs Scotland. More Nations Series and World U20 Championship bets from Brent and other members of our community will be posted on the weekly rugby thread on our brand new discussion forum. If you haven't done so already, register a forum account here.

Note, odds quoted are available at the time of writing but are subject to change.

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